ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Still riding high...Not seeing much evidence of a dive yet. Still well North of 18z.

It has already driven SW quite a bit. Animate it and you'll see it.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like she's diving...

[drezee]

At 36 hrs, ridge is stronger than 12z euro

[pcolaman]

Looks like she's diving...

Kinda concerning due to that ridge. I remember a storm name Ivan ,granted that almost the same week in 2004,with models showing turn for day before hand. GranTed Ivan was at 10 n at the start.

[AxaltaRacing24]

At 36 hrs, ridge is stronger than 12z euro

Biggest difference is the GFS turning it faster.

[Steve]

Alright so rhe GFS starts in a few minutes. Any ideas what happens? Shift east? Shift west?


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i think will west because been showing stronger high look mess over fl is Trough that will be pull out and high rebuild

NAM swings down another low after it pulls out. GFS probably will show that too within early part of the run. After that, local weather (Fox 8 so reasonably legit) says a cold front comes through or gets close. So I'll look to see if it depicts that mid week. I think that's a pattern you have to look toward the South or Southeast anyway. High will come back from the NE and also the east if it follows EC. Some of the flip flopping has been due to back and forth pressure systems in NE Canada and the NW Atlantic. Regardless of what the GFS shows, everything is pointing toward the Bahamas. Be double closely watching if you are there. I haven't looked past the initialization yet, but guess answer would be that GFS should logically drop a few hundred miles south of the last run. It's had a lot of solutions. We're at about 8 days, and it's the GFS where anything is possible. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move landfall to somewhere on the SE Coast say between around Cocoa Beach/Titusville and Virginia Beach. Big stretch of coast for sure.

[RL3AO]

Still riding high...Not seeing much evidence of a dive yet. Still well North of 18z.

Really?

[SouthFLTropics]

The ULL to the NW looks a little more pronounced...Could play a factor.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[SouthFLTropics]

Still riding high...Not seeing much evidence of a dive yet. Still well North of 18z.

Really?

It's late...My eyes are playing tricks on me...

[pcolaman]

Still riding high...Not seeing much evidence of a dive yet. Still well North of 18z.

Really?

Kinda looks like a dive to me or wsw

[SouthFLTropics]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is the ridge opening up? Kinda looks like it...

[pcolaman]

Wow really lower .

[RL3AO]

If you want to talk about a trend, it's worth mentioning it's 150 miles WNW of the run 24s prior on Tuesday morning.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Still a tick SW of the euro

[ConvergenceZone]

Question is, where along the East Coast will it strike this Time?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Question is, where along the East Coast will it strike this Time?

New England

[SouthFLTropics]

[SouthFLTropics]

If you want to talk about a trend, it's worth mentioning it's 150 miles WNW of the run 24s prior on Tuesday morning.

Definitely...Speed is one of the biggest factors here I think.