ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

http://i.imgur.com/9UokKU4.gif

Continues to have trouble establishing outflow to the south. Convection consistently looks shallow, ragged, and limited in the southern quads.

I think you mean to say outflow to it SW quadrant.
It still has a good outflow which reaches all the way to C.A. on its SE quadrant.

[RL3AO]

At this rate, you guys will be back to calling the season a bust in an hour.

[Kingarabian]

http://i.imgur.com/9UokKU4.gif

Continues to have trouble establishing outflow to the south. Convection consistently looks shallow, ragged, and limited in the southern quads.

I think you mean to say outflow to it SW quadrant.
It still has a good outflow which reaches all the way to C.A. on its SE quadrant.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/L9xt94d.gif[img]

Nice illustration.

I guess the outflow to the SE is decent. To the immediate south and south west, not so much. Some systems naturally don't need much southerly flow to strengthen. But in Harvey's case it plainly looks restricted and in some way it's affecting the system.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just want to stop in here and wish all of my fellow Storm2K'ers from Texas and Louisiana the best of luck with Harvey. Here in South Florida it has been cloudy and damp most of the day due to 92L as we remember the 25th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. Thoughts and prayers are with you as you prepare for much more than cloudy and damp. Hopefully Harvey will not turn out to be as bad as it could be.

SouthFLTropics

[GCANE]

[ConvergenceZone]

Its fine if it's only forecast to be a Cat.2. But the GFS is saying Cat.4 and the NHC is saying Cat.3. If so, the whole system needs to look impressive and it's clearly restricted to the south.

The thing is, it can take care of that problem in a quick 3 to 4 hours. So it has a ton of time left before it makes land fall tomorrow night or early Saturday Morning

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why is the storm struggling to strengthen? It seems to be in a perfect environment, but yet not taking off at all. Hmmm. Good news, or maybe some good news for Texas and LA.

[Kingarabian]

At this rate, you guys will be back to calling the season a bust in an hour.

I seasoned cancelled as soon as I saw that pressure drop was only 4 mb since the last advisory and that the pressure was not at 965

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

This has a excellent divergent outflow going SSW .look @ the upper flow.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 25.55,2047

[AxaltaRacing24]

Why is the storm struggling to strengthen? It seems to be in a perfect environment, but yet not taking off at all. Hmmm. Good news, or maybe some good news for Texas and LA.

Diurnal min has likely slowed the strengthening. But this thing should take back off tonight. Still has plenty of time left to become a major and looks well on its way.

[gatorcane]

Just want to stop in here and wish all of my fellow Storm2K'ers from Texas and Louisiana the best of luck with Harvey. Here in South Florida it has been cloudy and damp most of the day due to 92L as we remember the 25th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. Thoughts and prayers are with you as you prepare for much more than cloudy and damp. Hopefully Harvey will not turn out to be as bad as it could be.

SouthFLTropics

Well said +1

[galaxy401]

Why is the storm struggling to strengthen? It seems to be in a perfect environment, but yet not taking off at all. Hmmm. Good news, or maybe some good news for Texas and LA.

Uhh I think strength isn't going to matter in the long run considering up to 3 feet of rain is forecasted there...

[Sciencerocks]

At this rate, you guys will be back to calling the season a bust in an hour.

I seasoned cancelled as soon as I saw that pressure drop was only 4 mb since the last advisory and that the pressure was not at 965

Chances of cat3 have gone down but certainly not season cancelled.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't know what some of you are seeing but I see Harvey getting that more rounded highly convective ball like core developing, if they go on to get that buzzsaw look, look out!

[floridasun78]

we now anniversary of hurr Andrew look what waiting for texas

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah I agree that Harvey does look kind of ragged and I'm thinking this will likely peak at Cat.2.

I doubt it. Look what it looked like yesterday afternoon. Did you think we'd be sitting at an 85mph cane today? I sure didn't. 24 hours is a TON of time do a cane to go from cat 1 to cat 3 or even 4

[ALhurricane]

I don't get a chance to post much these days, but think a little perspective is in order regarding the strengthening. Keep in mind the most ideal conditions for RI as shown by all of the guidance is tomorrow. This has plenty of time to reach Cat 3/4. Just go back to images from yesterday and see how far this storm has come.

[Kingarabian]

If Harvey doesn't intensify, that only means that the Euro solution is likely to be more correct as it has a 975mb hurricane making landfall. It also means the Houston/Galveston area and SWLA could be at risk since what the Euro solution is also showing.

[Alyono]

looks like it is intensifying a little once again based upon the goes 16 satellite. Seeing another attempt to form an eye

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yeah I agree that Harvey does look kind of ragged and I'm thinking this will likely peak at Cat.2.

I doubt it. Look what it looked like yesterday afternoon. Did you think we'd be sitting at an 85mph cane today? I sure didn't. 24 hours is a TON of time do a cane to go from cat 1 to cat 3 or even 4

I agree. This was forecasted by some models to become a 3 while they also had it weak right now. It technically shouldn't even be this strong yet in the first place.