ATL: IRMA - Models

[weathaguyry]

Starting to go back NNW at 192 hours...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090200/gfs_pres_wind_watl_33.png

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET shifts west. Turns WNW at the end of the run. Maybe feeling the high building above Irma??


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[SFLcane]

Cmc turns N few miles offshore SFL

[meriland29]

It is however interesting to see them predict a system will be that strong, that far north. It seems extremely rare..

[RL3AO]

UKMET shifts west. Turns WNW at the end of the run. Maybe feeling the high building above Irma??

FWIW, the UKMET has been by far the best track model so far. Obviously a small sample size.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC gets to here and then turns North.

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET shifts west. Turns WNW at the end of the run. Maybe feeling the high building above Irma??

FWIW, the UKMET has been by far the best track model so far. Obviously a small sample size.

Can you post the text output for the Ukmet? I dont have that data


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[weathaguyry]

Landfall in MD, 204 hours

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Bocadude85]

With each run the GFS shifts a little west...at what point do these small westward shifts end?

[CourierPR]

UKMET shifts west. Turns WNW at the end of the run. Maybe feeling the high building above Irma??

FWIW, the UKMET has been by far the best track model so far. Obviously a small sample size.

Does the NHC put much weight in the UKMET?

[Blinhart]

896mb. Holy geeze

Yeah, no doubt she is fierce. I try really hard not to focus on futurecast intensity too far out cause, if anything is harder to predict than where a system is going to go, it'd be the intensity. Lets just hope 896 aint gonna be a reality..

If she stays further South I have no doubt 896 is a real possibility, might even get into the 870's.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It is however interesting to see them predict a system will be that strong, that far north. It seems extremely rare..

If this indeed occurs it might very well unthrone the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 as the most intense northern hurricane ever known. A truly frightening thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Col ... ne_of_1635

[RL3AO]

UKMET shifts west. Turns WNW at the end of the run. Maybe feeling the high building above Irma??

FWIW, the UKMET has been by far the best track model so far. Obviously a small sample size.

Does the NHC put much weight in the UKMET?

Yes. It's on equal footing with the GFS and Euro. Many would argue that as a global model, it goes 1) Euro, 2) UKMET, 3) GFS.

[Blinhart]

That would be a high end Cat 4, low end Cat 5 coming into Maryland, Delaware.

[SouthFLTropics]

Delmarva Peninsula would be completely rearranged after that hit. The trend is not our friend folks. These runs keep impacting somewhere along the Eastern seaboard and that is something our nation does not need right now.

[meriland29]

I don't think there has really ever been a hurricane to hit at that magnitude there, at least from the historical map I see. I could be wrong..

[Frank P]

If GFS 0S run comes to fruition it would probably be the greatest evacuation in US history.... would create a state of mass panic on the east coast... down right scary!

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok...time for a break. Be back for the Euro in a little over an hour.