ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

THe CDO is becoming much more stable. if that northern eyewall is a sign .. then the next few hours are going to be interesting..

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone know why they keep doing all the loopy loops in the eye each pass from the AF plane ?

[Soonercane]

I thought the NHC mentioned dry air intrusion/weakening? The pressure is down but that could be temporary right? Trying to make up mind whether to stay or leave (in Victoria on central TX coast).

[Exalt]

If they find 85kt, could the forecast possibly be upped to a Cat 4 landfall? Weird things happen in the Gulf and while it'd be a longshot I wouldn't at all rule out a Cat 5 either, stranger things have happened.

[Aric Dunn]

a 965.9 mb with 22 kt winds ..

[cycloneye]

RL3AO ,you think Beven could have waited for the pass to then release the 10 PM CDT advisory?

[psyclone]

if this storm landfalls as a cat 3 we should see the first usage of the extreme wind warning for areas expecting 100 knot winds.

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone know why they keep doing all the loopy loops in the eye each pass from the AF plane ?

Likely trying to find the true center of circulation for accurate center fix position and central pressure estimate.

[Soonercane]

if this storm landfalls as a cat 3 we should see the first usage of the extreme wind warning for areas expecting 100 knot winds.

I was thinking so too earlier but remember it was issued for Cape Canaveral when the western eyewall of Matthew brushed it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_wind_warning

[RL3AO]

It's literally improving by the minute.



The next 3 to 6 hours will decide a cat 3 vs a cat 4+ at landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone know why they keep doing all the loopy loops in the eye each pass from the AF plane ?

Likely trying to find the true center of circulation for accurate center fix position and central pressure estimate.

its seems a little odd all of a sudden with this system. why even worry about a half mile difference?

[SunnyThoughts]

I thought the NHC mentioned dry air intrusion/weakening? The pressure is down but that could be temporary right? Trying to make up mind whether to stay or leave (in Victoria on central TX coast).

My goodness Sooner, I would go. Even if it doesn't hit you directly, chances are you are going to be without power if you are on the coast, and possibly for an extended period of time. Not even to mention the rainfall you are more than likely going to receive. I've lived for 10 days with no power after a cane before, trust me...it is terrible.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I thought the NHC mentioned dry air intrusion/weakening? The pressure is down but that could be temporary right? Trying to make up mind whether to stay or leave (in Victoria on central TX coast).

Leave. You don't want to be anywhere near this thing.

[psyclone]

if this storm landfalls as a cat 3 we should see the first usage of the extreme wind warning for areas expecting 100 knot winds.

I was thinking so too earlier but remember it was issued for Cape Canaveral when the western eyewall of Matthew brushed it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_wind_warning

great catch I did not know that. the eventual issuance of the warning this time will be something to watch for. that's the most terrifying warning I can think of. you know it's going down.

[RL3AO]

RL3AO ,you think Beven could have waited for the pass to then release the 10 PM CDT advisory?

I don't think there is enough data now to up intensity or the forecast, but a special advisory later tonight wouldn't shock me if it continues what it started in the last hour.

[Exalt]

It's literally improving by the minute.



The next 3 to 6 hours will decide a cat 3 vs a cat 4+ at landfall.

If it keeps going at this rate, I don't think that battle even exists.

[Wx_Warrior]

upload photo to web

[NDG]

Anyone know why they keep doing all the loopy loops in the eye each pass from the AF plane ?

I think they drop down closer to the surface to drop the dropsonde since the eye is only 15 miles in diameter.
Is my guess.

[AubreyStorm]

Vía Levi Cowan

[dukeblue219]

Anyone know why they keep doing all the loopy loops in the eye each pass from the AF plane ?

Likely trying to find the true center of circulation for accurate center fix position and central pressure estimate.

its seems a little odd all of a sudden with this system. why even worry about a half mile difference?

They could be experimenting with any number of measurements, cameras, navigation systems, or whatnot. It might be as simple as trying to gather more sensory data on eye structure during intensification. Hopefully we'll get a mention of their pattern at some point from NHC.