ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hd44]

Not bad :O...

[txwatcher91]

Ring of red has completed around the eye on IR now and eye is starting to warm. Expect rapid pressure drops to start soon, next pass of recon will be interesting if they hit the NW quad... Pressure should be near or below 960 by then and winds probably starting to pick up quickly too.

[Aric Dunn]

Eyewall continues to improve quite a bit on radar..

[NDG]

[Alyono]

I thought the NHC mentioned dry air intrusion/weakening? The pressure is down but that could be temporary right? Trying to make up mind whether to stay or leave (in Victoria on central TX coast).

Leave. You don't want to be anywhere near this thing.

if he's in Victoria, he's well inland. Not in an evacuation zone, unless he's by a waterway

[Exalt]

100% this is getting retired. First hurricane to make landfall as a major since Wilma? The sheer amount of flooding this is about to cause? God I can't bear to think about the devastation.

I think the last major landfall in the Atlantic was either Dean or Felix.

Dean was a Cat 1 landfall after a major landfall in Mexico and Felix didn't even make landfall in CONUS. Wilma was the last major to make landfall as a Cat 3 in Florida.

[MississippiWx]

GOES 16 is amazing. Thank you, thank you.

So amazing to watch it improve literally every minute.

[1900hurricane]

Anyone else noticing the tail Harvey has grown back by the Yucatan? I always look for those weird features hurricanes have. I remember with Hurricane Matthew, it was the "blob" that stayed with Matthew forever it seemed like to the northeast of the system.

Looks like this time around, good divergence in the outflow jet is helping to sustain that convection to me. It could be a big deal if it maintains itself to and after landfall as far as rainfall is concerned. Modeled QPF has been very heavy on the northeastern side of the system, perhaps this is why.

[txwatcher91]

915MB 160mph? got a ways to go before that is a possibility...I am thinking high end cat3

Yes, we have a perfect combo of conditions for it to do that tonight. You have DMAX, highest TCHP ahead, a solid CDO forming now, and the core seems to really be heating up. Next step will be to see the eye suddenly clear out and a nice ring of red all around on IR. From there, I would expect very rapid pressure drops. I’m thinking of Rita and Wilma rapid pressure drops (but not as strong).

The coldest tops over the CDO have disconnected now compared to the past couple of hours. Typically in a major hurricane, those tops are round and connected with an eye feature in the middle.

Amazing change in a few hours isn't it? There is always a classic shape a cat 1/2 hurricane will get before forming the CDO and then bombing out, the last visible images of the day were helpful in determining this. Now the bombing/rapid pressure drop will begin and the eye will clear out quickly as the northern side of the CDO expands and this rapidly deepens. Cat 3/4 by morning.

[Alyono]

100% this is getting retired. First hurricane to make landfall as a major since Wilma? The sheer amount of flooding this is about to cause? God I can't bear to think about the devastation.

I think the last major landfall in the Atlantic was either Dean or Felix.

Matthew, many times last year

[Michele B]

Can this thing be awesome and fearsome at the same time?

[SunnyThoughts]

Most ferocious looking cat 1 cane I've ever seen I do believe.

[Exalt]

100% this is getting retired. First hurricane to make landfall as a major since Wilma? The sheer amount of flooding this is about to cause? God I can't bear to think about the devastation.

I think the last major landfall in the Atlantic was either Dean or Felix.

Matthew, many times last year

I was talking about CONUS. Matthew never made landfall until SC, I was very much correct in my statement.

[Kingarabian]

Yes, we have a perfect combo of conditions for it to do that tonight. You have DMAX, highest TCHP ahead, a solid CDO forming now, and the core seems to really be heating up. Next step will be to see the eye suddenly clear out and a nice ring of red all around on IR. From there, I would expect very rapid pressure drops. I’m thinking of Rita and Wilma rapid pressure drops (but not as strong).

The coldest tops over the CDO have disconnected now compared to the past couple of hours. Typically in a major hurricane, those tops are round and connected with an eye feature in the middle.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/ymmhk5U.gif[img]

Amazing change in a few hours isn't it? There is always a classic shape a cat 1/2 hurricane will get before forming the CDO and then bombing out, the last visible images of the day were helpful in determining this. Now the bombing/rapid pressure drop will begin and the eye will clear out quickly as the northern side of the CDO expands and this rapidly deepens. Cat 3/4 by morning.

Certainly. Let's see how it reflects on recon. Pressure is dropping but winds have continued to be slow in catching up.

[1900hurricane]

100% this is getting retired. First hurricane to make landfall as a major since Wilma? The sheer amount of flooding this is about to cause? God I can't bear to think about the devastation.

I think the last major landfall in the Atlantic was either Dean or Felix.

Matthew, many times last year

Actually, it was Otto in November.

[Alyono]

looks like a 971mb pressure from the VDM

[Hurricaneman]

Recon is saying pretty much a pinhole eye, could be a sign of this exploding later

[Exalt]

I think the last major landfall in the Atlantic was either Dean or Felix.

Matthew, many times last year

Actually, it was Otto in November.

Again, maybe I should've been clearer in my statement, but I was obviously talking about the contiguous United States..

[artist]

I thought the NHC mentioned dry air intrusion/weakening? The pressure is down but that could be temporary right? Trying to make up mind whether to stay or leave (in Victoria on central TX coast).

Leave. You don't want to be anywhere near this thing.

if he's in Victoria, he's well inland. Not in an evacuation zone, unless he's by a waterway

There has been mandatory evacuation for Victoria-
https://www.victoriaadvocate.com/news/2 ... tory-evac/

[txwatcher91]

Interestingly enough, the NAM is now showing this stalling over Corpus Christi or very close to it before drifting east towards LA. IF half the storm is over water like that, it will be much slower to weaken and cause more wind damage issues as it slowly crawls up the coast. That scenario seems to be the most likely IMO now that the NAM and Euro are in agreement. When those two show a similar solution inside 48 hours, it usually ends up being the correct solution.