ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Steve]

Yeah. 00Z NAM 12km doesn't move it for the next 19 hours so far. Anyone under that band north of the center watch out.

[BRweather]

Wow.

00z NAM has really trended offshore lately

Has not done that bad with this storm so cannot dismiss entirely

[BRweather]

[BRweather]

Definitely will watch

NAM does not build the gulf ridge in nearly as much this run

[stormlover2013]

Yeah because look what's developing in the atlantic on east coast !! That's why

[BRweather]

well this would be something.

Need to see some more trends

[Sciencerocks]

The nam did a good job with Harvey before....The navgaps, cmc and the 18z gfs aren't too much different.

[HouTXmetro]

Are any of the models that Brink Harvey back out over water showing the current ENE motion?

[Blinhart]

So that would be a large Cat 2 at landfall at Cameron. Just what is not needed.

[bayoubebe]

Where is the link or photo where it shows the forecast for Harvey with all the different models? Does anyone even know where it's going next?

Is anyone on here in The Woodlands area? I have family there. They say they are fine, no tornados, and still have power. But, I'm amazed after looking at the radar.

Thank you!!

[PTrackerLA]

Cut it out NAMs . Seems unlikely at this point but I don't trust anything with a circulation in the gulf this time of year. Euro has been steadfast in rejuvenating Harvey whereas GFS seems lost. Will be interesting .

[Stormcenter]

Just remember this is what the EURO and other models were originally showing just a few days ago. The storm heading for a second landfall in SW LA.

Cut it out NAMs . Seems unlikely at this point but I don't trust anything with a circulation in the gulf this time of year. Euro has been steadfast in rejuvenating Harvey whereas GFS seems lost. Will be interesting .

[Steve]

GFS should be running.

[Steve]

---

GFS at 54 awfully close to the S TX Coast. Will it emerge? Long 2 days for little movement. So again anyone just north of the circulation is in for it. We will see shortly if GFS joins the Gulf models.

Playing around the coast near Corpus Christi at 60 (Monday 7am).

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is so lost bad!!! Has been the last 2 days

[Steve]

Gfs is so lost bad!!! Has been the last 2 days

Was heading for San Antonio at 102. I respect the rainfall prognostications though so far.

[bamajammer4eva]

Epac storm have anything to do with why GFS is different? Canadian/Euro don't have it that close

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

consensus





ukx2

[Steve]

CMC drops back to the Gulf at 48 and comes back up and hits around Beaumont-Port Arthur as an average tropical storm.

It has much of Houston getting 24+ by 36 and certainly by 48 hours on its track. Way worse than people think because the scale doesn't go high enough. No doubt some of the recent rain is factored in because it's valid 7pm local time and SETX has gotten drenched in the last 4 hours.

[Steve]

HWRF offshore by 51 hours. Most of the run to go.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0