ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MaineWeatherNut]

103kts found by the NOAA plane at flight level...

No noticeable pressure drop compared to the last AF Recon flight though.

041700 2532N 09450W 7495 02299 9742 +160 //// 112098 103 081 030 01

[ColdMiser123]

Peak flight level wind was 103 KT. Peak SFMR was 85 KT.

[AubreyStorm]

Vía Twitter ‪@wxtrackercody ‬

Plane just measured 103kt flight level, 85kt sfc. Extrapolated pressure of 967.6mb.

[1900hurricane]

Instantaneous DTs are clearly on the upswing.

[image removed]

If the eye clears out there with the CDO remaining the same, that would be T6.0?

Depends on what you mean by cleared out. A clear eye is probably at least off-white if not warm medium grey. The color shades of the CDO drop off pretty sharp, so there is some room for error there, but at the moment I'd probably embed in light grey, with the black and white shades just missing width requirements (eye number 5.0 for LG). OW eye with W ring gets a 0.5 eye adjustment and a WMG eye with W ring gets me a 1.0 eye adjustment, yielding 5.5 and 6.0, respectively. Add 0.5 to each if B meets width requirements and 1.0 if W does.

[Kingarabian]

Pressures still at likely in the low 970s. Dang what gives.

[Hurricaneman]

By the way I do have a question for the mets out there what does the tornado threat look like for the Houston area during this event?

I'd be on the lookout for them in the outer bands

[txwatcher91]

103kts with 85kt SFMR reading, 968 extrap pressure.

[Blinhart]

So with the NOAA flight flying at a lower flight level, and getting 103 Knot Flight level winds and 85 Surface level winds, I think it is safe to say 100 MPH is a good bet, expecting a new Intermediate Advisory soon.

[Sean in New Orleans]

No need to panic, just be prepared. Humble will see some heavy rain over the next few days, but no significant wind threat just yet, though that is subject to change. Follow NHC and local guidance over the weekend.

I fully agree but it seems that up until tonight many of the local news stations seem to have some in a little of a panic. The 10PM news however the met was more calming.

I'd be wrapping things up..once tropical storm conditions begin businesses will begin to close in short order..

[Kingarabian]

103kts with 85kt SFMR reading, 968 extrap pressure.

90kts is reasonable considering they're flying a bit higher.

[meriland29]

Been a few hours since I checked in. Looks like he is still a cat 1? Is he weakening atm or something? What is the update?

[txwatcher91]

Pressures still at likely in the low 970s. Dang what gives.

They will be crashing anytime now. Winds starting to catch up finally. When the pressure drops you may be looking at 4-6mb per recon pass.

[Hurrilurker]

Pressures still at likely in the low 970s. Dang what gives.

I think they just found ~968 so looks to still be steadily dropping. Likely still being inhibited somewhat by the dry air from the SW.

[Blinhart]

103kts with 85kt SFMR reading, 968 extrap pressure.

90kts is reasonable considering they're flying a bit higher.

They are flying lower, like 2000 feet lower.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Been a few hours since I checked in. Looks like he is still a cat 1? Is he weakening atm or something? What is the update?

No he's not weakening. Just been slow to respond to the Pressure Drop... Recon finally found winds to suggest it's now a cat 2 with around 100mph (Unofficial still)

[BYG Jacob]

There's no way that's still above 970

[meriland29]

Pressures still at likely in the low 970s. Dang what gives.

They will be crashing anytime now. Winds starting to catch up finally. When the pressure drops you may be looking at 4-6mb per recon pass.

I have recalled many storms thats mb pressure were low, however the winds were still high and never matched up

[Kingarabian]

103kts with 85kt SFMR reading, 968 extrap pressure.

90kts is reasonable considering they're flying a bit higher.

They are flying lower, like 2000 feet lower.

Oh that's right they're indeed flying at 750mb versus 700mb.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GANIM3xSIyX20.jpg[img]

There's no way that's still above 970

That's what we're all thinking.

[Blinhart]

These are the flight levels of the 2 planes in there right now:
Air Force plane at 700mb level. (around 10,000 feet most of the time)
NOAA plane at 750mb level. (around 8,000 feet most of the time)