ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

I think the biggest issue is that the low level and mid level circs are a little more tiltled.

Shear still analyzed around 15kts, though the analysis is always sketchy near a hurricane.

[BYG Jacob]

Rapid Intensification is beginning now. We'll either wake up to a really strong cat 2 or major.

[Hurricaneman]

Recon confirms an erc going on

[Kingarabian]

The eye still needs to warm and clear out.

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data available, intensity looks to be 90 kt right now.

[Kingarabian]

Based on all the data available, intensity looks to be 90 kt right now.

Yep that's what I'm thinking.

[Blinhart]

Rapid Intensification is beginning now. We'll either wake up to a really strong cat 2 or major.

I'm thinking a cat 3 or maybe cat 4 in the next 8 hours.

[BRweather]

To save some time, can someone please post again what they think is the best way to view in IR real-time? I am using NASA now, but I know that RAMMB is a tad better. I just cannot get the setting right.

thanks in advance

[Hurricaneman]

Based on all the data available, intensity looks to be 90 kt right now.

With a double wind maxima

[txwatcher91]

963.9 extrap from AF plane, this is definitely starting to see a rapid pressure drop and ramp up in winds now.

[ColdMiser123]

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...12 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Harvey has strengthened. The estimated maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 94.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

[BYG Jacob]

Based on all the data available, intensity looks to be 90 kt right now.

Yep that's what I'm thinking.

Latest advisory has it at exactly that

[tolakram]

To save some time, can someone please post again what they think is the best way to view in IR real-time? I am using NASA now, but I know that RAMMB is a tad better. I just cannot get the setting right.

thanks in advance

Band 11 using SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4447.5&y=5739.5&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Blinhart]

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...12 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Harvey has strengthened. The estimated maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 94.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

There we go Cat 2 at 100 mph with pressure of 967

[chaser1]

Pin the Pressure on the Donkey time lol, anyone's guess on lowest (GOM) pressure that Harvey achieves? I"m going to guess 937mb, but filling a bit prior to landfall.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

NAM nailed the pineye.

[tolakram]

The 1 minute imagery is also available.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1115&y=1157&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[wkwally]

I have a strong feeling that by the time I wake up it could be a cat 3 But just my guess and I am not a pro met.

[BYG Jacob]

Recon confirms an erc going on

Where did it confirm an EWRC

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Instantaneous DTs are clearly on the upswing.

[image removed]

If the eye clears out there with the CDO remaining the same, that would be T6.0?

Depends on what you mean by cleared out. A clear eye is probably at least off-white if not warm medium grey. The color shades of the CDO drop off pretty sharp, so there is some room for error there, but at the moment I'd probably embed in light grey, with the black and white shades just missing width requirements (eye number 5.0 for LG). OW eye with W ring gets a 0.5 eye adjustment and a WMG eye with W ring gets me a 1.0 eye adjustment, yielding 5.5 and 6.0, respectively. Add 0.5 to each if B meets width requirements and 1.0 if W does.

What do the B, OW, W, and WMG stand for? I guess I'm just wondering where we can find out about these Dvorak ratings. The only experience I have with Dvorak is the keyboard layout.