ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

After 240 hours, GFS goes to low resolution. That is why the pressure shot up.

You're right ,Forgot that

[BobHarlem]

600dm ridge is insane, if that holds no way this doesn't hit the US somewhere.

[AutoPenalti]

Starting to see that leftward trend...

[Steve]

After 240 hours, GFS goes to low resolution. That is why the pressure shot up.

Yeah that's right. I forgot that was the point where it expanded. GFS paints a bad scenario 10 days out. You don't see that every day from a global.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-rb.html

Some signs of organizing this morning.

[LarryWx]

so killer sal waiting for 99l look like sal still alive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We could always hope, FL, we can always hope. Actually, though. SAL can be a mixed blessing for us/FL because it can keep TCs weak and thus allow them a higher chance to get to near the SE CONUS.

[SFLcane]

[chaser1]

Bad, bad, bad moon rising.

[Siker]

Euro weaker than last run. It fails to merge the competing vorts in as clean a fashion as the GFS; it seems like some issues arise from the fact that the eastern one remains dominant without fully absorbing its competitor to the south.

It's also got the nice dry air, of coure.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF at 96 hours continues to show a much weaker system compared to the 00z GFS:

[SFLcane]

GFS will probably cave in the morning lol

[wxmann_91]

The GFS will might continue to show this for 1-2 more days before caving. To be honest, it might be better (from a forecasting perspective) to ignore its solution until it does.

[bamajammer4eva]

This is the new kinder gentler GFS which has been much more conservative so far. Meanwhile the Euro has missed developing systems. Maybe something will happen in between the 2 and a weak TD fizzles over Hispaniola.

[AtlanticWind]

One thing I am still noticing is that the GFS is developing the low out in front near 27/28 West. The Euro seems to be
focus on the 22west area initially. Could explain the big difference in results possibly.

Looking at the satellite pics the GFS may possibly be on to something.

[beoumont]

:double: Bad, bad, bad moon rising.

Literally.



Link: https://youtu.be/Ii8KYjERURg

[Hammy]

The GFS will might continue to show this for 1-2 more days before caving. To be honest, it might be better (from a forecasting perspective) to ignore its solution until it does.

I've essentially been ignoring the GFS runs for anything other than entertainment--it'll probably handle it better if and when a depression finally forms.

[ouragans]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather, associated with a
broad low pressure system, extends from about 400 miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual consolidation and development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move
toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[northjaxpro]

WOW. Needless to say, Heaven forbid seeing something like this monster being shown right near your back yard?

This is down right frightening to say the least!! Completely hope this does not come anything close to verifying like this run is showing.

[Alyono]

WOW. Needless to say, Heaven forbid seeing something like this monster being shown right near your back yard?

This is down right frightening to say the least!! Completely hope this does not come anything close to verifying like this run is showing.

we saw that in real life less than a year ago

[northjaxpro]

Yeah of course, which was just way too close for anyone's sanity here in Northeast Florida concerning Matthew. That is why Heaven forbid this from coming anywhere near coming to manifest please!! It was extremely nerve wrecking living through that scare here last October for 100% sure I can attest to that!!