ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MaineWeatherNut]

Recon confirms an erc going on

Where did it confirm an EWRC

It confirmed Concentric Eyewalls of 10nm and 20nm.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon confirms an erc going on

Where did it confirm an EWRC

It confirmed Concentric Eyewalls of 10nm and 20nm.

those are not concentric eyewalls.. depending and the flight path.. they flew through two curved bands.. concentric would be in all quads.

[BYG Jacob]

Recon confirms an erc going on

Where did it confirm an EWRC

It confirmed Concentric Eyewalls of 10nm and 20nm.

I don't think so.

[Exalt]

If the eye clears out there with the CDO remaining the same, that would be T6.0?

Depends on what you mean by cleared out. A clear eye is probably at least off-white if not warm medium grey. The color shades of the CDO drop off pretty sharp, so there is some room for error there, but at the moment I'd probably embed in light grey, with the black and white shades just missing width requirements (eye number 5.0 for LG). OW eye with W ring gets a 0.5 eye adjustment and a WMG eye with W ring gets me a 1.0 eye adjustment, yielding 5.5 and 6.0, respectively. Add 0.5 to each if B meets width requirements and 1.0 if W does.

What do the B, OW, W, and WMG stand for? I guess I'm just wondering where we can find out about these Dvorak ratings. The only experience I have with Dvorak is the keyboard layout.

WMG, or warm medium grey, is indication of a warm eye (a signal of an intensifying tropical cyclone).

[Hammy]

Recon confirms an erc going on

Where did it confirm an EWRC

It confirmed Concentric Eyewalls of 10nm and 20nm.

Will that halt intensification?

[MaineWeatherNut]

Where did it confirm an EWRC

It confirmed Concentric Eyewalls of 10nm and 20nm.

those are not concentric eyewalls.. depending and the flight path.. they flew through two curved bands.. lol

Latest Airforce Recon VDM:

L. OPEN SE
M. CO10-20

Edit: Actually that's the latest NOAA VDM

[stephen23]

Pin the Pressure on the Donkey time lol, anyone's guess on lowest (GOM) pressure that Harvey achieves? I"m going to guess 937mb, but filling a bit prior to landfall.

I'm wondering why you think pressure will come up some prior to landfall. I saw what you wrote earlier about upwelling. But, from what I have heard about this particular area the warm water extends deeper then usual and upwelling in this area just feeds more warm water.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I have a strong feeling that by the time I wake up it could be a cat 3 But just my guess and I am not a pro met.

Just on eye balling not looking at data i suspect you would find 90kt plus in the core
its a very small area with max speed.

[Exalt]

Where did it confirm an EWRC

It confirmed Concentric Eyewalls of 10nm and 20nm.

Will that halt intensification?

IMO this never really had a completely constructed eyewall to begin with due to curved banding (ala the ragged presentation earlier this evening), and is now finishing building a larger eyewall in tandem with intensifying. I'm not a pro-met but if it's handling intensification during an EWRC like it is now, it should be fine.

[ROCK]

EWRC going on? That means the expansion of the wind field after it's done...basically he is juicing now..awesome

[txwatcher91]

If it’s truly developing a second eyewall then that will expand the size and wind field of the system. Will have to wait and see if that continues, it’s unusual to see an EWRC in a cat 1 or 2 storm.

[BYG Jacob]

EWRC going on? That means the expansion of the wind field after it's done...basically he is juicing now..awesome

That would be really bad this far out, like, really bad.

[Kazmit]

This only has to strengthen 10kts to become a major... and it has 24 hours to do so.

[Blinhart]

I think tomorrow here in Louisiana they will doing voluntary evacuation of the upper part of Cameron Parish and all of Vermillion Parish, and then if it looks like it will be at minimum a Cat 1 around the SW coast of Louisiana they will upgrade it to mandatory on Saturday or Sunday, and voluntary in Jeff Davis, Acadia, and Calcasieu Parishes, now if it is going to be stronger there will be more mandatory according to their storm surge predictions. I know in the past where I live it is Cat 4 or higher it is mandatory yet 1 mile south of where I live it is Cat 3 and 10 miles south it is Cat 2.

[Bizzles]

If it’s truly developing a second eyewall then that will expand the size and wind field of the system. Will have to wait and see if that continues, it’s unusual to see an EWRC in a cat 1 or 2 storm.

Maybe an indication that it is strengthening very rapidly.

[Exalt]

Pin the Pressure on the Donkey time lol, anyone's guess on lowest (GOM) pressure that Harvey achieves? I"m going to guess 937mb, but filling a bit prior to landfall.

I'm wondering why you think pressure will come up some prior to landfall. I saw what you wrote earlier about upwelling. But, from what I have heard about this particular area the warm water extends deeper then usual and upwelling in this area just feeds more warm water.

The Gulf tends to have dry air right up at the coast that usually causes most landfalling cyclones to drop a slight amount in intensity prior to landfall (most prominent example being Katrina), also just simple interaction with landmasses can cause cyclones to have a disruption in intensification or cause a drop in strength.

Although from what I've seen conditions look fair for Harvey.

[1900hurricane]

If the eye clears out there with the CDO remaining the same, that would be T6.0?

Depends on what you mean by cleared out. A clear eye is probably at least off-white if not warm medium grey. The color shades of the CDO drop off pretty sharp, so there is some room for error there, but at the moment I'd probably embed in light grey, with the black and white shades just missing width requirements (eye number 5.0 for LG). OW eye with W ring gets a 0.5 eye adjustment and a WMG eye with W ring gets me a 1.0 eye adjustment, yielding 5.5 and 6.0, respectively. Add 0.5 to each if B meets width requirements and 1.0 if W does.

What do the B, OW, W, and WMG stand for? I guess I'm just wondering where we can find out about these Dvorak ratings. The only experience I have with Dvorak is the keyboard layout.

They are all abbreviations for color shades on the Basic Dvorak enhanced infrared color curve. B is black, OW is off-white, W is white, and WMG is warm medium grey. More on the Dvorak Technique can be found here.

[ROCK]

Um Where the H is Steve?
Talk me off he ledge bro!!

[BRweather]

ECMWF will be running in a little over 30 minutes.

So far it has been giving the most logical outcome in my opinion. Also the most consistent.

Very curious to see if it budges, but after seeing the 00Z NAM with the upper-level dropsonde information and how it mimicked the 12z ECMWF, I do not know why it would change now.

[Aric Dunn]

It confirmed Concentric Eyewalls of 10nm and 20nm.

those are not concentric eyewalls.. depending and the flight path.. they flew through two curved bands.. lol

Latest Airforce Recon VDM:

L. OPEN SE
M. CO10-20

Edit: Actually that's the latest NOAA VDM

if a ERC has started this early something forced it. the dynamics for a ERC dont occur until a mature pressure gradient exists. I highly doubt that is what is happening. likely just a misinterpretation.