ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042226
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 10 20170904
221700 1556N 05849W 4099 07414 0403 -140 -335 009022 022 /// /// 03
221730 1555N 05846W 4098 07416 0403 -140 -347 013022 023 /// /// 03
221800 1555N 05844W 4103 07402 0398 -145 -347 020023 023 /// /// 03
221830 1554N 05841W 4095 07414 0396 -145 -320 020023 023 /// /// 03
221900 1553N 05839W 4098 07405 0394 -145 -338 019022 022 /// /// 03
221930 1553N 05836W 4098 07407 0394 -149 -292 018021 021 /// /// 03
222000 1552N 05834W 4097 07408 0393 -148 -301 016020 020 /// /// 03
222030 1551N 05831W 4099 07402 0392 -145 -312 015020 020 /// /// 03
222100 1551N 05829W 4101 07398 0391 -149 -309 014022 023 /// /// 03
222130 1550N 05826W 4098 07404 0392 -150 -283 012023 023 /// /// 03
222200 1549N 05824W 4098 07403 0392 -152 -287 014024 024 /// /// 03
222230 1548N 05821W 4105 07392 0391 -156 -273 013023 023 /// /// 03
222300 1548N 05819W 4101 07396 0388 -163 -227 347025 026 /// /// 03
222330 1547N 05816W 4102 07391 0386 -161 -185 322021 026 /// /// 03
222400 1546N 05814W 4095 07403 0387 -145 -162 358011 018 /// /// 03
222430 1546N 05811W 4102 07391 0386 -142 -151 011023 027 /// /// 03
222500 1545N 05809W 4101 07388 0383 -146 //// 007030 032 /// /// 05
222530 1544N 05807W 4097 07394 0380 -150 -160 017034 036 /// /// 03
222600 1544N 05804W 4098 07388 0378 -150 -155 024036 037 /// /// 03
222630 1543N 05802W 4100 07384 0375 -147 -153 040022 034 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 042220
NOAA9 0411A IRMA HDOB 30 20170904
221030 1810N 05709W 1539 14067 0628 -653 //// 106017 018 /// /// 05
221100 1806N 05708W 1541 14069 0632 -641 //// 108020 022 /// /// 05
221130 1803N 05707W 1538 14072 0634 -635 //// 112026 028 /// /// 05
221200 1800N 05706W 1537 14069 0630 -637 //// 110027 030 /// /// 05
221230 1757N 05704W 1540 14067 0628 -640 //// 105030 032 /// /// 05
221300 1755N 05701W 1539 14069 0629 -643 //// 101031 033 /// /// 05
221330 1753N 05658W 1538 14070 0629 -644 //// 096032 033 /// /// 05
221400 1753N 05654W 1539 14068 0629 -646 //// 094031 033 /// /// 05
221430 1754N 05651W 1539 14066 0628 -648 //// 086029 030 /// /// 05
221500 1756N 05648W 1539 14066 0627 -650 //// 082027 028 /// /// 05
221530 1759N 05646W 1540 14067 0631 -647 //// 084030 032 /// /// 05
221600 1802N 05643W 1540 14064 0629 -648 //// 086033 034 /// /// 05
221630 1805N 05641W 1542 14062 0628 -648 //// 085033 034 /// /// 05
221700 1808N 05639W 1539 14067 0628 -651 //// 085034 034 /// /// 05
221730 1810N 05637W 1521 14142 0627 -656 //// 090036 039 /// /// 05
221800 1813N 05635W 1505 14210 0623 -661 //// 097037 039 /// /// 05
221830 1816N 05632W 1503 14206 0622 -660 //// 100041 042 /// /// 05
221900 1819N 05630W 1503 14207 0620 -660 //// 102040 041 /// /// 05
221930 1822N 05628W 1503 14210 0621 -663 //// 098037 039 /// /// 05
222000 1824N 05626W 1503 14208 0620 -664 //// 099037 038 /// /// 05

A third one?

[robbielyn]

Kids at ucf here's some of the stuff I'm reading
"Orlando is not in the cone and it's going to the keys and hit Texas."
"It's going to be like Matthew, nothing will happen."
"Anyone over 21 please buy me cases of bud."
"It's going to hook and clip Miami and miss the east coast of Florida."

hahahahahaha. You gotta have cases of beer on hand.

yeah that is a major part of hurricane supplies lol.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Where are you guys getting the NOAA P-3 radar data?

[GCANE]

My brother and sister-in-law now live in near Melbourne. Anyone have any thoughts on that area? They just bought a house and live on a barrier island. Hanks.

Actually, I have been watching the details of this along the Atlantic coast given the current models.
Of course this may change on later model runs.
But at this point, there may be a significant tornado outbreak from Miami to Melbourne as Irma runs thru the Straits of Florida.
Of course, this is just my interpretation.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 042229
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 14 20170904
221930 1754N 05530W 7513 02518 0036 +141 +092 079061 061 035 002 00
222000 1753N 05531W 7515 02515 0036 +142 +085 077062 063 036 002 00
222030 1751N 05533W 7514 02516 0035 +143 +083 075062 062 037 001 00
222100 1749N 05535W 7514 02517 0035 +143 +082 074061 061 036 002 00
222130 1747N 05537W 7514 02516 0037 +141 +084 072060 061 037 002 00
222200 1745N 05538W 7513 02517 0037 +139 +099 069059 060 036 001 00
222230 1744N 05540W 7514 02515 0034 +141 +095 069061 062 036 002 00
222300 1742N 05542W 7513 02517 0033 +142 +087 067058 060 036 001 00
222330 1740N 05544W 7513 02515 0034 +139 +096 066056 056 036 002 00
222400 1738N 05546W 7510 02519 0038 +133 +110 065056 057 036 002 00
222430 1736N 05547W 7525 02503 0042 +131 +114 062056 057 037 003 00
222500 1735N 05549W 7514 02515 0043 +129 +118 057053 055 037 002 00
222530 1733N 05551W 7515 02512 0040 +130 +122 057053 054 036 001 00
222600 1731N 05552W 7517 02511 0042 +129 +126 057055 056 034 003 00
222630 1729N 05554W 7524 02505 0040 +130 +127 056058 059 033 005 00
222700 1727N 05556W 7514 02513 0038 +131 +129 055056 058 034 003 00
222730 1725N 05558W 7499 02530 0038 +132 +110 051054 055 032 004 00
222800 1724N 05600W 7511 02524 0043 +131 +119 051053 055 031 003 00
222830 1722N 05601W 7522 02509 0044 +132 +125 048052 054 033 002 00
222900 1720N 05603W 7516 02517 0037 +141 +107 048053 053 030 002 00

[Aric Dunn]

Where are you guys getting the NOAA P-3 radar data?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... rth_plugin

[Patricia]

My brother and sister-in-law now live in near Melbourne. Anyone have any thoughts on that area? They just bought a house and live on a barrier island. Hanks.

Nothing is set in stone, but the latest gfs run is scary and a possibility. Make sure they are aware of the storm and have plans to shutter up and evacuate if they are on a barrier island, better sooner than later, head to Atlanta or Alabama should these runs continue to show it going up the state as strong as it is showing

They are thinking of heading to Tampa. But they know hurricanes so I'm sure they will head north once they see these runs (I spoke with them last yesterday). I just hope they get on the roads sooner rather than later. Thanks for your thoughts.

[GCANE]

Where are you guys getting the NOAA P-3 radar data?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... r&latest=1

[robbielyn]

My brother and sister-in-law now live in near Melbourne. Anyone have any thoughts on that area? They just bought a house and live on a barrier island. Hanks.

Nothing is set in stone, but the latest gfs run is scary and a possibility. Make sure they are aware of the storm and have plans to shutter up and evacuate if they are on a barrier island, better sooner than later, head to Atlanta or Alabama should these runs continue to show it going up the state as strong as it is showing

They are thinking of heading to Tampa. But they know hurricanes so I'm sure they will head north once they see these runs (I spoke with them last yesterday). I just hope they get on the roads sooner rather than later. Thanks for your thoughts.

uh tampa not a good idea if latest gfs verifies.

[RL3AO]

NOAA9 0411A IRMA HDOB 30 20170904
A third one?

That's the upper air flight. We really don't need to post data from it.

[Aric Dunn]

Closed solid eyewall now.. inner eyewall remnants should fade now and the eye should clear out and it should deepen.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-2-.kmz

[johngaltfla]

How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?

I'll give you a hint.

My home is exactly 4 feet above sea level.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I can definitely see hurricane watch is being is you sometime tomorrow for that Dominican Republic on the north coast and possibly the Turks and Caicos Island

[eastcoastFL]

I hope the intensity of the GFS is way off. If it's a cat 5 up the coast my plans of heading to Western Cocoa may not help. Not quite sure where else to go. I could book a hotel on the west coast I guess but who knows...

[GeneratorPower]

GFS 18z just took out Miami with a strong category 5, possibly breaks the Okeechobee dyke, ran destruction up the entire east coast, and took out Orlando on the way out...If it verifies it will probably be the worst hurricane in Florida history, if not American history...

I think the dike is reasonably safe due to reasonably fast movement of Irma. Not enough time for rainfall.

[hurricanefloyd5]

How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?

I'll give you a hint.

My home is exactly 4 feet above sea level.

Think you might need to stink flotation device on your home? If push comes to shove you can always turn your home into a house boat?

[GeneratorPower]

I hope the intensity of the GFS is way off. If it's a cat 5 up the coast my plans of heading to Western Cocoa may not help. Not quite sure where else to go. I could book a hotel on the west coast I guess but who knows...

Intensity is very very likely near correct. Warm water with low shear.

[johngaltfla]

when is central fl supposed to start feeling effects from this

Saturday-Sunday-Monday. I think Irma will expand one more time as she passes PR and Hispaniola then tighten up and intensify again as she approaches the Florida Straits.

This is not a forecast, just an opinion. Please refer to the NHC and local forecasters for precise forecast information.