ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

that is going to a big eye clearing out shortly..

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042236
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 11 20170904
222700 1542N 05800W 4098 07388 0375 -145 -146 044031 034 /// /// 05
222730 1542N 05757W 4101 07382 0375 -146 //// 039033 036 /// /// 05
222800 1541N 05755W 4100 07382 0374 -147 -159 043032 033 /// /// 03
222830 1540N 05753W 4098 07386 0375 -144 -162 043032 033 /// /// 03
222900 1540N 05751W 4101 07382 0376 -146 -158 037032 033 /// /// 03
222930 1539N 05749W 4100 07388 0379 -145 -187 031028 030 /// /// 03
223000 1538N 05747W 4097 07394 0379 -145 -190 023024 026 /// /// 03
223030 1538N 05745W 4099 07386 0376 -144 -210 024025 025 /// /// 03
223100 1537N 05742W 4097 07390 0375 -140 -227 019025 026 /// /// 03
223130 1537N 05740W 4099 07382 0373 -142 -227 014025 026 /// /// 03
223200 1536N 05738W 4095 07388 0371 -145 -191 024023 024 023 000 00
223230 1535N 05735W 4101 07375 0369 -142 -151 037020 024 023 000 00
223300 1534N 05733W 4100 07377 0368 -140 -150 027029 032 024 000 00
223330 1534N 05731W 4097 07382 0369 -145 -148 018029 032 025 000 01
223400 1533N 05728W 4102 07373 0368 -145 -148 018027 029 025 000 00
223430 1532N 05726W 4098 07381 0368 -145 -154 024025 027 025 000 00
223500 1532N 05723W 4094 07387 0368 -146 -169 022025 026 025 000 00
223530 1531N 05721W 4099 07376 0366 -145 -176 016024 025 025 000 03
223600 1530N 05719W 4099 07375 0366 -145 -164 017026 028 026 000 00
223630 1530N 05716W 4098 07377 0366 -145 -162 018029 031 026 000 03
$$

[GeneratorPower]

How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?

I'll give you a hint.

My home is exactly 4 feet above sea level.

West coast of FL surge probably less than Atlantic coast. Offshore winds during first half of event.

[La Sirena]

How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?

I'll give you a hint.

My home is exactly 4 feet above sea level.

We lived near MM29 and checked Windfinder for Sunday's forecast....it was listing 24 ft seas....and we lived on the water. Scary stuff.

[johngaltfla]

GFS 18z just took out Miami with a strong category 5, possibly breaks the Okeechobee dyke, ran destruction up the entire east coast, and took out Orlando on the way out...If it verifies it will probably be the worst hurricane in Florida history, if not American history...

Pardner, we ain't going to escape this one either. North winds in excess of 90 mph will create a huge mess from Tampa Bay to Naples...remember, we are already super-saturated from all the rain last week. There is nothing holding those oak trees and other hardwoods up but sunshine and a prayer now.

[NDG]

One thing to notice from the 18z GFS model is that it speeds up Irma, so this means that coastal SE FL could start feeling TS force winds as early as Saturday morning, with hurricane force winds at least in gusts by Saturday afternoon/evening then the worst conditions from around midnight Saturday night through at least noon on Sunday.
BTW, if you are wondering why it does not weakens Irma that much after making landfall is because it tracks it over the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee. A lot of flat wet lands.
Let me remind you that this could still change.

[WeatherGuesser]

How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?

Wiki list of high points in FL, most of which are in the northern part. Bottom of the list is a whopping 49 feet above sea level. I would imagine a substantial surge could swamp across much of then southern part of the state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F ... est_points


.

[johngaltfla]

One thing to notice from the 18z GFS model is that it speeds up Irma, so this means that coastal SE FL could start feeling TS force winds as early as Saturday morning, with hurricane force winds at least in gusts by Saturday afternoon/evening then the worst conditions from around midnight Saturday night through at least noon on Sunday.
BTW, if you are wondering why it does not weakens Irma that much after making landfall is because it tracks it over the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee. A lot of flat wet lands.
Let me remind you that this could still change.

Yup. Katrina intensified over the Glades and Wilma didn't lose any strength crossing over. The Everglades are nothing more than a fart in the wind when it comes to winding down hurricane intensity. Man are we paying for that 12 year hiatus for major hurricanes as it would appear now.

[JSDS]

Off topic, but how do I find Storm2k on Tapatalk?

[johngaltfla]

How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?

Wiki list of high points in FL, most of which are in the northern part. Bottom of the list is a whopping 49 feet above sea level. I would imagine a substantial surge could swamp across much of then southern part of the state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F ... est_points


.

Don't make fun of our only mountain.

[chris46n]

If Irma goes right up the coast of Florida this will be changed state to live here again.

[chris46n]

If Irma goes right up the coast of Florida this will be changed state to live here again.

[Prof]

My brother and sister-in-law now live in near Melbourne. Anyone have any thoughts on that area? They just bought a house and live on a barrier island. Hanks.

Everyone I know on the barrier islands there is planning to evacuate to Georgia. During Matthew, almost everyone came inland and those who didn't wished they had. I had a friend whose entire fence disappeared from his yard in Indialantic during Matthew. This could be much worse.

[dukeblue219]

I hope the intensity of the GFS is way off. If it's a cat 5 up the coast my plans of heading to Western Cocoa may not help. Not quite sure where else to go. I could book a hotel on the west coast I guess but who knows...

Intensity is very very likely near correct. Warm water with low shear.

890mb as it makes landfall? I mean it's probably possible, but only a couple storms globally have ever been there. Not sure I can think of anything in the Atlantic proper.

The models have been consistently overdoing the pressure lately - same for Matthew and Harvey.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042246
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 12 20170904
223700 1529N 05714W 4101 07374 0366 -141 -179 016027 029 026 000 00
223730 1528N 05711W 4146 07298 0367 -138 -186 014026 029 025 000 03
223800 1527N 05709W 4284 07049 0354 -124 -179 012024 025 027 000 00
223830 1527N 05706W 4416 06820 0341 -106 -170 007023 023 028 000 00
223900 1526N 05704W 4552 06583 0324 -094 -175 008025 026 028 000 00
223930 1525N 05702W 4688 06355 0310 -083 -154 003027 028 027 000 00
224000 1525N 05659W 4828 06125 0295 -069 -138 354028 028 027 000 03
224030 1524N 05657W 4967 05903 0281 -054 -116 349025 027 027 000 00
224100 1523N 05655W 5123 05660 0266 -041 -086 348024 024 027 000 00
224130 1523N 05652W 5272 05429 0249 -028 -065 348024 025 025 000 00
224200 1522N 05650W 5422 05199 0229 -012 -073 343024 025 025 000 03
224230 1521N 05648W 5582 04967 0026 +001 -056 344027 028 026 001 00
224300 1521N 05646W 5721 04769 0032 +011 -038 342027 028 027 000 00
224330 1520N 05643W 5836 04609 0031 +020 -027 340027 027 026 000 00
224400 1519N 05641W 5955 04445 0033 +029 -016 333027 027 027 000 00
224430 1519N 05639W 6077 04279 0041 +034 -011 328028 028 028 000 00
224500 1518N 05637W 6204 04110 0045 +041 -000 328029 029 028 000 00
224530 1517N 05634W 6330 03946 0046 +050 +009 331028 029 028 000 00
224600 1517N 05632W 6460 03777 0041 +063 +011 327027 027 029 000 00
224630 1516N 05630W 6589 03613 0043 +070 +028 318027 028 029 001 00
$$

[eastcoastFL]

I hope the intensity of the GFS is way off. If it's a cat 5 up the coast my plans of heading to Western Cocoa may not help. Not quite sure where else to go. I could book a hotel on the west coast I guess but who knows...

Intensity is very very likely near correct. Warm water with low shear.

That would be barring any land interaction, right?

[Ntxw]

Starting to see some blue down the eye on JSL, usually sign of a storm getting very intense. Once she works out the eye maybe run at Cat 5? Strong Cat 4 at the least. I would not be sitting comfortable if I were in Florida right now. Good thing is time is on your side.



Also closing in on warmest SST's during its life thus far

[Hurricane Andrew]

This thing is turning into a monster...look at it.

[johngaltfla]

I hope the intensity of the GFS is way off. If it's a cat 5 up the coast my plans of heading to Western Cocoa may not help. Not quite sure where else to go. I could book a hotel on the west coast I guess but who knows...

Intensity is very very likely near correct. Warm water with low shear.

890mb as it makes landfall? I mean it's probably possible, but only a couple storms globally have ever been there. Not sure I can think of anything in the Atlantic proper.

The models have been consistently overdoing the pressure lately - same for Matthew and Harvey.

After Charley, I never dismiss intensity forecasts. The models back then missed the drop in pressure and rapid intensification from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4. I'll ride a 2 out, a 4? No freaking way.

[South Texas Storms]

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Unfortunately the trends today are showing an increasing risk to Florida this weekend. I hope everyone over there will be preparing well ahead of time!