ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris90]

Is anyone surprised a storm with 943mb is at 140mph? I figured it would need to be a little deeper to get that kind of wind speeds at the surface.

Atlantic is weird in that wind speeds tend to either lag really far behind or speed past pressure requirements. Take Matthew for example, who hit 165mph winds at 934 mb.

I think sometimes people get hung up on pressure requirements for wind speeds. It's a very fluid relationship. It really depends on the background pressure, the size of the storm and the pressure gradient.
There's a lot of different factors involved.

Georges was at 135kts with a pressure of 937mb east of the leeward for example.
I think there's a chance Irma could get some cat 5 winds with a pressure between 925-935 if she's producing some heavy convection to bring stronger winds to the surface.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 050019
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 25 20170905
000930 1710N 05439W 7516 02428 9946 +130 //// 130085 086 060 013 01
001000 1709N 05441W 7498 02441 9934 +132 +131 131091 092 062 012 03
001030 1708N 05442W 7511 02416 9923 +135 +121 130094 097 062 009 00
001100 1706N 05444W 7511 02404 9905 +133 //// 132098 099 065 013 01
001130 1705N 05445W 7507 02394 9890 +136 +136 133100 103 067 013 00
001200 1704N 05447W 7505 02383 9875 +138 +124 133108 110 072 009 00
001230 1702N 05448W 7494 02383 9859 +135 //// 129113 115 071 014 05
001300 1701N 05449W 7492 02365 9839 +138 +122 130118 119 081 018 00
001330 1659N 05451W 7487 02350 9805 +147 +137 130118 121 083 026 00
001400 1658N 05452W 7405 02416 9774 +143 //// 133114 117 092 018 01
001430 1657N 05453W 7388 02411 9738 +148 //// 133119 121 097 015 01
001500 1655N 05454W 7377 02388 9696 +156 +151 129126 127 105 031 00
001530 1654N 05456W 7401 02329 9664 +150 +149 126121 123 110 018 00
001600 1653N 05457W 7367 02324 9615 +151 //// 126123 129 117 015 01
001630 1651N 05458W 7366 02286 9559 +167 +164 127099 104 111 009 00
001700 1650N 05500W 7463 02143 9512 +189 +165 126086 091 091 003 00
001730 1648N 05501W 7508 02066 9488 +188 +177 129069 072 068 004 00
001800 1646N 05502W 7512 02045 9471 +187 +177 132055 059 053 004 00
001830 1645N 05503W 7498 02041 9455 +188 +170 136046 049 037 002 00
001900 1643N 05504W 7513 02018 9442 +195 +150 145031 036 030 002 00

[jlauderdal]

Is Thursday or Friday too late for evacuations from Miami-Dade if this approaches starting Saturday into Sunday?

The problem with this evacuation scenario is that no matter where you are in Florida, you pretty much can only go North. There's no evacuating to Naples for this. And since Irma is expected to ride up the peninsula, evacuations might ride up all the way past Lake O.

If you wait until Friday, you will be fighting everyone north of you also leaving on Friday. You're at the bottom of the pile. It will be a nightmare.

good point, this is why they evacuate the keys in stages...there isnt going to be any mass evacuations form Florida...coastal areas yes for surge but getting on the road on Friday will be a huge mistake because you could get stuck and then the storm comes, secure your property and batten down the hatches with supplies..if you are going to make a run for it better do it by weds because 95 and the turnpike could turn into death traps, seriousely

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050016
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 21 20170905
000700 1801N 05403W 6967 03151 0040 +103 +040 116061 061 040 000 00
000730 1801N 05406W 6967 03150 0045 +097 +051 116061 062 042 000 00
000800 1801N 05408W 6966 03151 0042 +100 +047 115060 060 041 001 00
000830 1801N 05410W 6967 03148 0040 +099 +047 115061 061 041 001 00
000900 1801N 05413W 6967 03148 0034 +103 +046 114061 061 042 001 00
000930 1801N 05415W 6969 03144 0038 +100 +054 113061 061 043 001 00
001000 1801N 05417W 6966 03148 0036 +100 +055 113061 062 043 002 00
001030 1801N 05420W 6967 03145 0036 +100 +053 112063 063 045 000 00
001100 1801N 05422W 6966 03145 0036 +100 +055 113062 063 045 000 00
001130 1801N 05425W 6969 03140 0032 +100 +047 114061 062 045 001 00
001200 1801N 05427W 6965 03143 0030 +100 +048 114061 061 045 001 00
001230 1801N 05429W 6967 03139 0031 +100 +044 114061 062 045 001 00
001300 1801N 05432W 6967 03139 0029 +100 +044 113062 062 045 001 00
001330 1801N 05434W 6966 03139 0022 +105 +042 111064 064 046 001 00
001400 1801N 05436W 6969 03134 0021 +105 +042 111064 065 046 001 00
001430 1801N 05439W 6967 03136 0018 +105 +043 112064 064 046 001 00
001500 1801N 05439W 6967 03136 0023 +101 +046 111065 065 046 001 00
001530 1801N 05444W 6967 03132 0029 +095 +050 110065 066 045 001 00
001600 1801N 05446W 6968 03131 0022 +098 +044 109068 068 047 000 03
001630 1801N 05448W 6965 03136 0021 +100 +045 108068 068 046 000 00
$$

[Recurve]

New trend in the models is a tad bit more North of the islands which is great for them. Of course, that just means even more time for Irma to tap into those hot waters before that *likely* turn into S.Fla.

Is Thursday or Friday too late for evacuations from Miami-Dade if this approaches starting Saturday into Sunday?

Rely on local authorities, but just my two cents: No, not too late at all, if a hit on Miami is forecast, and you are in an unsafe structure, plan on going somewhere at any time, even a few hours before TS winds arrive. Traffic, gas supplies and hotels will be a problem. If you can leave late at night or very early morning you might avoid traffic. Plan to not go any farther than necessary to get out of surge/flood zone and into sturdy shelter. FIU is one choice, although it may fill up from Keys residents. For Andrew I took US 27 up to Highlands county to avoid the interstates, but people were having to go to Orlando or farther to find hotel rooms. In Wilma the turnpike was a nightmare for evacuation. If the current track holds, Miami will not get the full force, and you may be OK unless in a mobile home or low-lying area.

[floridasun78]

looks like the deepening is happening fast !

232930 1655N 05448W 6980 02775 9653 +118 //// 120131 135 110 030 05
233000 1655N 05448W 6949 02823 9664 +119 //// 122129 132 111 034 05
233030 1655N 05447W 6970 02823 9701 +109 //// 125130 132 108 039 01
233100 1656N 05446W 6962 02857 9727 +108 +108 129125 129 105 026 00
233130 1657N 05445W 6964 02884 9747 +113 +113 128117 122 101 015 00

would up winds to 135 to 140 maybe..

this bigger and stronger and harvey

[jlauderdal]

latest center pass radar.. wow.. amazing

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/radar ... Center.png

wow see out to sea we know going affect islands soon

floridasun, your guy setzer seemed very concerned on the 6 pm news..never seen him that tense

[floridasun78]

The game is being moved possibly to Friday night. I think they'll issue a decision tomorrow morning.

There will be mandatory evacs by Friday night if the NHC forecast is even close.

Agreed. I think the game gets moved to their bye week in week 11 or possibly to Atlanta for Sunday.

There are more important issues than a football game on Sunday to deal with. Not many as I am a huge Bucs fan, but this is right up there.

their talk move game to thur or friday

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico residents are prepering for the worse case scenario but hoping the best comes.I am prepared in my house but maybe I will not be in Storm2k for a while due to power grids not in good conditions. Sending prayers to our friends in the islands that will be affected by Irma.

[GCANE]

The Hurricane Watch Net (HWN) has announced plans to activate for the now-Category 4 Hurricane Irma on Tuesday, September 5, at 1800 UTC on 14.325 MHz. The net will remain in continuous operation until further notice, continuing on 20 meters for as long as propagation allows, then switching to 40 meters, 7.268 MHz. If propagation dictates, the HWN will operate on both 20 and 40 meters at the same time. HWN Manager Bobby Graves, KB5HAV, said the net will pause at 1130 UTC to allow the Waterway Net to conduct its daily session. “Should an emergency arise, there will be someone trained to handle the situation,” he said.

The VoIP Hurricane Net has announced that it will activate no later than 2200 UTC on Tuesday, and WX4NHC at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will activate at 2200 UTC on Tuesday. Any Amateur Radio operators in the affected area of Irma or with relays into the affected area of Irma are asked to provide surface and damage reports into the VoIP Hurricane Net for relay into WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center. Any SKYWARN Nets active in the local area as Irma moves into Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands that can pass reports to the VoIP Hurricane Net for relay into WX4NHC are asked to designate a net liaison or connect directly to the *WX_TALK* EchoLink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219. Stations on All-Star can connect to the Echolink side of the system by dialing *033007203.

http://www.arrl.org/news/view/hurricane ... icane-irma

[tolakram]

SLIDER 1min IR

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=789&y=959&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tolakram]

00:16z

[TheStormExpert]

Too get an idea as to how warm the waters are around Florida and in that vicinity. 30°C equates to 86°F.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050026
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 22 20170905
001700 1801N 05451W 6967 03132 0027 +095 +052 106069 069 046 000 00
001730 1801N 05453W 6966 03133 0026 +095 +053 103069 070 046 000 00
001800 1801N 05456W 6967 03131 0027 +095 +052 102070 071 046 001 00
001830 1801N 05458W 6970 03128 0021 +099 +051 100070 071 048 000 00
001900 1801N 05501W 6963 03136 0017 +102 +048 100071 071 046 000 00
001930 1801N 05503W 6971 03126 0018 +103 +046 097070 071 044 000 03
002000 1801N 05506W 6969 03130 0016 +105 +044 095070 070 044 000 00
002030 1801N 05508W 6969 03130 0016 +105 +046 093069 070 045 000 03
002100 1801N 05511W 6966 03133 0015 +105 +047 092068 070 046 001 00
002130 1801N 05513W 6967 03131 0018 +101 +049 092070 070 046 001 00
002200 1801N 05516W 6968 03131 0020 +100 +042 092068 070 046 000 00
002230 1801N 05518W 6967 03130 0017 +101 +043 091068 069 046 001 00
002300 1801N 05521W 6966 03131 0018 +100 +047 090070 071 045 000 00
002330 1801N 05523W 6967 03130 0014 +104 +047 089071 071 043 000 00
002400 1801N 05526W 6969 03130 0015 +105 +046 089069 070 042 000 00
002430 1801N 05528W 6967 03133 0016 +105 +050 086068 069 041 000 00
002500 1801N 05531W 6967 03134 0017 +105 +049 083067 068 040 000 00
002530 1801N 05533W 6966 03137 0025 +099 +054 083068 068 039 001 00
002600 1801N 05535W 6970 03132 0025 +100 +047 084068 068 039 000 00
002630 1801N 05538W 6965 03140 0023 +102 +045 080066 068 042 000 00
$$

[SoupBone]

Puerto Rico residents are prepering for the worse case scenario but hoping the best comes.I am prepared in my house but maybe I will not be in Storm2k for a while due to power grids not in good conditions. Sending prayers to our friends in the islands that will be affected by Irma.

Damn man, take care and we'll see ya on the other side.

[floridasun78]

Puerto Rico residents are prepering for the worse case scenario but hoping the best comes.I am prepared in my house but maybe I will not be in Storm2k for a while due to power grids not in good conditions. Sending prayers to our friends in the islands that will be affected by Irma.

good luck my friend be safe

[Aric Dunn]

Still moving straight west.. not looking good for islands and PR now.. it needs to start turning within the next 6 to 8 hours..

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 050029
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 26 20170905
001930 1642N 05506W 7499 02029 9432 +196 +170 173014 018 026 002 03
002000 1641N 05508W 7513 02011 9429 +203 +160 249003 006 025 000 03
002030 1641N 05510W 7498 02032 9427 +210 +149 329011 016 019 000 03
002100 1639N 05511W 7510 02029 9433 +219 +136 320022 025 018 003 00
002130 1638N 05513W 7519 02028 9448 +216 +132 320032 037 033 002 00
002200 1636N 05514W 7528 02034 9469 +206 +141 315047 053 055 002 00
002230 1635N 05516W 7529 02054 9507 +186 +154 314063 071 083 006 00
002300 1633N 05517W 7511 02115 9559 +164 //// 317095 106 097 013 01
002330 1632N 05519W 7497 02181 9624 +153 //// 316109 111 093 015 01
002400 1631N 05520W 7482 02240 9667 +153 //// 313102 104 092 015 01
002430 1629N 05521W 7482 02276 9707 +154 //// 310097 099 089 012 01
002500 1628N 05523W 7508 02281 9744 +158 +141 312091 093 082 008 00
002530 1627N 05524W 7514 02296 9775 +152 +149 308087 088 077 010 00
002600 1625N 05525W 7525 02306 9802 +149 //// 312083 086 073 015 01
002630 1624N 05527W 7499 02353 9827 +142 //// 313085 087 072 014 05
002700 1622N 05528W 7505 02367 9856 +134 //// 313083 084 065 008 01
002730 1621N 05530W 7527 02360 9880 +131 //// 311079 079 061 010 01
002800 1620N 05531W 7512 02390 9891 +135 +133 312074 076 058 008 00
002830 1618N 05532W 7514 02399 9910 +131 +128 314070 071 056 009 00
002900 1617N 05534W 7526 02398 9924 +128 //// 314066 067 054 009 01

[NJWxHurricane]

Still moving straight west.. not looking good for islands and PR now.. it needs to start turning within the next 6 to 8 hours..

a
still on track dude

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050036
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 23 20170905
002700 1801N 05540W 6966 03139 0021 +104 +043 080066 066 042 000 00
002730 1801N 05543W 6971 03133 0023 +104 +044 080065 066 043 001 00
002800 1801N 05545W 6970 03136 0024 +105 +043 078063 065 043 001 00
002830 1801N 05548W 6963 03144 0021 +108 +042 079063 064 042 001 00
002900 1801N 05550W 6967 03140 0027 +105 +045 075062 063 040 001 00
002930 1801N 05553W 6970 03139 0028 +104 +046 075061 062 040 001 00
003000 1801N 05555W 6968 03143 0030 +103 +048 073057 059 040 001 00
003030 1800N 05557W 6965 03147 0028 +105 +047 070053 054 040 001 00
003100 1800N 05600W 6969 03143 0028 +105 +046 070054 055 039 002 00
003130 1800N 05602W 6966 03147 0032 +104 +046 071054 055 039 001 00
003200 1800N 05604W 6967 03145 0031 +103 +045 071055 055 038 001 00
003230 1800N 05607W 6967 03148 0033 +103 +045 070056 057 038 001 00
003300 1800N 05609W 6967 03148 0033 +106 +048 069057 058 038 001 00
003330 1800N 05611W 6967 03149 0031 +107 +051 068057 057 035 001 00
003400 1800N 05614W 6969 03149 0031 +108 +051 068057 058 034 001 00
003430 1800N 05616W 6963 03155 0033 +105 +053 066058 058 034 001 00
003500 1800N 05618W 6969 03148 0031 +108 +054 065058 058 035 001 00
003530 1800N 05621W 6966 03156 0036 +106 +051 066058 059 035 001 00
003600 1800N 05623W 6967 03155 0037 +111 +042 065057 059 035 001 00
003630 1800N 05625W 6968 03156 0037 +110 +038 059053 054 035 001 00
$$
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