ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[forecasterjack]

I suppose at this point we can only hope for some last minute weakening as it approaches slightly cooler shelf waters but even that would be a few mb most likely.

EWRC would help... signs of an outer wall trying to take over https://weather.us/radar-us/texas/refle ... .html#play

[NDG]

Perhaps an outer eyewall beginning to form, good and bad news I guess.

[Exalt]

Perhaps an outer eyewall beginning to form, good and bad news I guess.

Considering the amount of time it has over this eddy I'd say extremely bad news..

[ronjon]

Getting that circular buzz saw look on RAD of a major hurricane. Look for the TS wind field to expand to the edge of the convection now.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BRO&loop=yes

[Sciencerocks]

Perhaps an outer eyewall beginning to form, good and bad news I guess.

Not really,,,

The inner eye wall is quickly merging with the outter. This could allow for a very quick ewrc and this thing within 6 hours from now could be bombing once again.

The bad news is it is quite rare for another ewrc to occur within 18-24 hours after a successful one is complete. This increases the odds that this won't weaken before landfall.

[GCANE]

No doubt the next 37GHz will show the deadly Pink Donut.
That 355K PV clearing really did the trick.
Just about perfectly stacked.
It still is going to hit that big pocket of high CAPE just before landfall.
If you are anywhere close to this monster get the hell out of its way.
Prayers for everyone effected by this.

[forecasterjack]

Still about 12-15 hours away from landfall. Would have to be a very efficient EWRC to complete before then, but it's possible.

[ronjon]

Hi guys!
This is my first post here! Excited to talk about Harvey!

Quite the dangerous situation here... GOES-16 data shows a pinhole eye developing (https://weather.us/satellite/texas/top- ... .html#play) and radar data confirms it (https://weather.us/radar-us/texas/refle ... .html#play). If that can fully close off, it's easy for me to see Cat 4 strength before landfall. The storm is struggling with a little bit of dry air by the looks of it. Thank goodness, without that we'd be headed for strong Cat 4 status no doubt. Convection is also a little bit lopsided. Nevertheless, this is a crazy dangerous storm. Wild to think that two days ago this was what, a tropical wave?

Hope everyone in Texas has taken the proper precautions!

Welcome forecasterjack!! You'll find this is great site for weather enthusiasts. I joined in 2005.

[jaguars_22]

Going to ride it out in Victoria

[ronyan]

Wouldn't an eyewall replacement cycle be faster in a lower end hurricane or does it not matter?

[WeatherGuesser]

After a stall offshore Texas followed by a front disrupting the circulation and sweeping the remnants off the NJ coast where it redevelops.

Yeah maybe Greenland....

I have images blocked here because so many posters tend to be irresponsible with file sizes. If this thing takes that kind of track, I may need to start making some preparations though. I lost power for 10 days after Ike. Where can I see a simple spaghetti track that will estimate positions as it crosses the country after going inland? I used to know, but it's been so long, I've forgotten.

[Kingarabian]

Damn this is nuts. Major hurricane streak about to end. Prayers out to the folks in Texas and everyone else who may be affected.

[NDG]

Still about 12-15 hours away from landfall. Would have to be a very efficient EWRC to complete before then, but it's possible.

More like at least 19-20 hrs before landfall, according to the GFS and Euro.
And if Euro is correct even longer as it shows for Harvey to slow down to a crawl just offshore.

[tolakram]

After a stall offshore Texas followed by a front disrupting the circulation and sweeping the remnants off the NJ coast where it redevelops.

Yeah maybe Greenland....

I have images blocked here because so many posters tend to be irresponsible with file sizes. If this thing takes that kind of track, I may need to start making some preparations though. I lost power for 10 days after Ike. Where can I see a simple spaghetti track that will estimate positions as it crosses the country after going inland? I used to know, but it's been so long, I've forgotten.

On this page: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#09L

[USTropics]

Does appear as if an EWRC is underway:

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop

[ronjon]

Going to ride it out in Victoria

God speed and good luck. Try and keep us at storm2k updated with your conditions. You are pretty far inland but the storm over the last several hours seems to be making a beeline toward Victoria.

[forecasterjack]

More like at least 19-20 hrs before landfall, according to the GFS and Euro.
And if Euro is correct even longer as it shows for Harvey to slow down to a crawl just offshore.

Yeah I noticed that. Would take a substantial decrease in forward motion for that to happen. Maybe running into the W ridge would do it but idk

[NDG]

Perhaps an outer eyewall beginning to form, good and bad news I guess.

Not really,,,

The inner eye wall is quickly merging with the outter. This could allow for a very quick ewrc and this thing within 6 hours from now could be bombing once again.

The bad news is it is quite rare for another ewrc to occur within 18-24 hours after a successful one is complete. This increases the odds that this won't weaken before landfall.

We can get an idea from the recon if a secondary wind maximum starts developing outside the eyewall, time will tell.

[GCANE]

Bottoms dropping out on the GOM Buoys