ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Still moving straight west.. not looking good for islands and PR now.. it needs to start turning within the next 6 to 8 hours..

a
still on track dude

yes.. but there was an oppertunity for it to start turning earlier.. that time is passing ...

[arizona_sooner]

I made a post on the model thread regarding how models may disregard persistence meteorology (i.e. keeping a westward track) and it got summarily deleted (?). The post also expressed concern for Puerto Rico, which could be in the bullseye unless Irma starts a little jog to the north... We have to monitor all possibilities at this point.

[tolakram]

Still moving straight west.. not looking good for islands and PR now.. it needs to start turning within the next 6 to 8 hours..

It's still on track and not supposed to turn until tomorrow.

[GCANE]

Drop from Kermit just in.

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Splash Location: 16.7N 55.15W
Splash Time: 0:23Z

945mb

[Aric Dunn]

Still moving straight west.. not looking good for islands and PR now.. it needs to start turning within the next 6 to 8 hours..

It's still on track and not supposed to turn until tomorrow.

\


yeessss I guess I was not clear.... look up

[NJWxHurricane]

Still moving straight west.. not looking good for islands and PR now.. it needs to start turning within the next 6 to 8 hours..

a
still on track dude

yes.. but there was an oppertunity for it to start turning earlier.. that time is passing ...

it just passed north of last forecast point everything is still on track

[FLeastcoast]

FWIW, I've always made reservations in NW Florida, Dothan, AL, even Thomasville, GA. I want to be North and West of maximum intensity. I can always cancel those reservations on Thursday if the storm looks to shift east or miss us completely.

I have reservations in knoxville...that should be ok right?

If not, we're all toast.

I am terrified truly. I paid for reservations in Ocala and Orlando and TN. TN is the only one that doesn't make me feel like throwing up.

[eastcoastFL]

I would not be surprised in the slightest if this went to a Cat 5 by tomorrow morning. There's really nothing stopping Irma, right now at least.

Honestly, I'm expecting it. EWRC completed, entering increasingly warmer waters, some beautiful convection flare up in the past few hours. There is literally nothing to hamper further intensification this evening. Winds have gone up 20mph in the past 6 hours, she's already running.

Is there any reason why the wind field haven't expanded much?

[Blinhart]

What is interesting I live in South Louisiana and my sister lives in Jacksonville, we are both telling each other that we are welcome to each others house if needed. That just shows that we are both looking out for each other and know each of us could be in the bulls-eye.

[SoupBone]

Still moving straight west.. not looking good for islands and PR now.. it needs to start turning within the next 6 to 8 hours..

It's still on track and not supposed to turn until tomorrow.

Not to speak on his behalf, but I believe he meant there was a small window to turn earlier and it missed that chance, basically avoiding PR.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 050039
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 27 20170905
002930 1616N 05535W 7513 02421 9932 +130 //// 316066 067 053 009 01
003000 1614N 05537W 7515 02428 9940 +134 +128 318069 070 051 011 00
003030 1613N 05538W 7511 02444 9949 +137 +125 317064 066 050 013 00
003100 1611N 05539W 7512 02450 9963 +132 +129 321065 067 048 012 00
003130 1610N 05541W 7499 02466 9966 +134 +130 318062 063 046 014 00
003200 1608N 05542W 7492 02485 9969 +134 //// 315064 066 045 013 01
003230 1607N 05544W 7512 02467 9977 +134 //// 319060 062 042 009 01
003300 1605N 05545W 7529 02454 9984 +138 //// 319057 061 038 008 01
003330 1604N 05547W 7520 02470 9987 +139 //// 318049 050 037 005 01
003400 1602N 05548W 7510 02488 9993 +140 +134 318046 046 036 002 00
003430 1601N 05550W 7504 02497 9991 +147 +117 313049 050 035 001 00
003500 1600N 05551W 7515 02487 9997 +149 +096 312048 049 034 002 00
003530 1558N 05553W 7525 02482 0011 +140 +106 315045 046 033 002 00
003600 1557N 05554W 7506 02504 0013 +140 +105 317046 047 031 002 00
003630 1556N 05556W 7514 02498 0016 +138 +109 318048 048 033 001 00
003700 1555N 05558W 7515 02500 0018 +139 +113 318048 048 030 002 00
003730 1554N 05559W 7512 02508 0023 +139 +109 317047 047 030 002 00
003800 1553N 05601W 7527 02492 0029 +135 +107 316041 043 028 002 00
003830 1552N 05603W 7512 02510 0030 +134 +103 316037 037 029 002 00
003900 1550N 05604W 7489 02537 0030 +136 +095 309037 038 024 002 00

[eastcoastFL]

I made a post on the model thread regarding how models may disregard persistence meteorology (i.e. keeping a westward track) and it got summarily deleted (?). The post also expressed concern for Puerto Rico, which could be in the bullseye unless Irma starts a little jog to the north... We have to monitor all possibilities at this point.

Can you explain that a little better? What do you mean by disregard persistence meteorology?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/904827129552089089

[Aric Dunn]

a
still on track dude

yes.. but there was an oppertunity for it to start turning earlier.. that time is passing ...

it just passed north of last forecast point everything is still on track

yessss ( would not really call that north of the forecast point) ... however if the wnw motion starts now ( or soon) it would start putting distance between PR and some of the other islands.. the longer it stays west the worse it gets...

[nascarfan999]

I have reservations in knoxville...that should be ok right?

If not, we're all toast.

I am terrified truly. I paid for reservations in Ocala and Orlando and TN. TN is the only one that doesn't make me feel like throwing up.

Anyone making reservations, especially multiple reservations, please keep in mind that several chains have recently changed their cancellation policy to require more notice, in many cases 48 hours and even some up to 72 hours. Make sure you know the policy for any rooms you are holding and cancel unused rooms far enough in advance to prevent being charge (not to mention it opens up the room for other evacuees that may need it).

[tolakram]

I have reservations in knoxville...that should be ok right?

If not, we're all toast.

I am terrified truly. I paid for reservations in Ocala and Orlando and TN. TN is the only one that doesn't make me feel like throwing up.

Hang in there. I'm, glad to hear you made reservations, that's the kind of planning that pays off when you need it.

[NJWxHurricane]

Still moving straight west.. not looking good for islands and PR now.. it needs to start turning within the next 6 to 8 hours..

It's still on track and not supposed to turn until tomorrow.

Not to speak on his behalf, but I believe he meant there was a small window to turn earlier and it missed that chance, basically avoiding PR.

It didn't need to turn earlier in order to miss PR, it can still miss.

[GCANE]

10C Core

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 0:40Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 16 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 0:20:02Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°41'N 55°08'W (16.6833N 55.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 387 statute miles (623 km) to the NE (50°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 118kts (~ 135.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 127° at 129kts (From the SE at ~ 148.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 945mb (27.91 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,456m (8,058ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the N (1°) from the flight level center at 21:45:54Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 155° at 6kts (From the SSE at 7mph)

[SoupBone]

It's still on track and not supposed to turn until tomorrow.

Not to speak on his behalf, but I believe he meant there was a small window to turn earlier and it missed that chance, basically avoiding PR.

It didn't need to turn earlier in order to miss PR, it can still miss.

I really hope it does, the infrastructure there would take months to recover from a Cat4.

[GCANE]