ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

Thats one run showing a recurve at 8+ days out. Have to wait and see. Next run could be right back at South Carolina.

this shifted atleast 1000 miles in one run, incredible

And that's usually around the margin of error of the models beyond 7 days.

Won't be until the middle of next week until we get a clearer picture about Irma in terms of CONUS impact.

No question about it. Trends have been better for the islands (except the recent EC at Northern Leewards), but the US and Canada have a long way to go. I think the Gulf is now out of play with maybe a very slim 1 or 2% chance of The Keys and coming north. Early it seemed like Bahamas/South Florida to me. But if GFS/CMC and smaller models are on or close, and who knows x 1,000, we could have a major mid-Atlantic impact 9 or so days out. Maybe South Carolina to Maine? It's going to come down to that Canadian ridge behind the lifting trough. That's the biggest deterministic airmass there is for whether it goes out to sea, slows/stalls or moves inland. ECMWF says it's going to be a close call.

[wxmann_91]

Crazy, crazy, crazy flip-flop this run by Euro. Not too characteristic of this model. We'll see....

It's Day 8+ lol... would be more unusual if it did not flip-flip.

Inside Day 7 the models have been fairly consistent in their solutions.

I'm finding this year, inside of 5. I realize that's anecdotal, but I do run them pretty much every day.

In general, yes. I meant inside Day 7 only specifically for Irma (the close to Lesser Antilles -> SE Bahamas track). Large, strong hurricanes in the deep tropics under a ridge usually have higher confidence track forecasts.

[Frank P]

The 12z Euro.
I'll take it

and that run if it comes to fruition just saved the USA probably about 200-300 billion dollars too... gotta hope for it!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Oh yay!!! One European run OTS and its all clear according to certain posters

The models are still having a bit of trouble with this trough/ridge scenario which could change..what we know for sure is there will be a Cat 4-Cat 5 in the Bahamas next week..who knows where it goes from there

Remember the latest GFS run had a run into Delmarva so anyone who says it's all clear is a fool..the entire east coast is still in pkay

Tuesday we will have a better idea when it's north of the islands

I honestly try to ignore it now. People have always been like this and it will most likely never change. But it's important to not sound all clear alarms over one run.

[psyclone]

There's no denying we have an encouraging trend for the CONUS but that's all it is...how many times have we seen models portray a threat, only to back off and then go back to the original solution? It happens a lot, especially in the long range so we'll just have to keep watching and remember the NHC only goes out 5 days for a reason. And speaking of the nearer term...it sure looks like a close shave...or perhaps worse for the northeast Caribbean. Yikes.

[Ken711]

There's no denying we have an encouraging trend for the CONUS but that's all it is...how many times have we seen models portray a threat, only to back off and then go back to the original solution? It happens a lot, especially in the long range so we'll just have to keep watching and remember the NHC only goes out 5 days for a reason. And speaking of the nearer term...it sure looks like a close shave...or perhaps worse for the northeast Caribbean. Yikes.

Didn't we just see that windshield wiper East/West shift with the GFS. I'd expect we'll see the same thing with the Euro in the next run with a shift back West.

[ObsessedMiami]

With all this flip flopping of models and certain runs showing Armageddon into everywhere on the east Coast, can folks stop tweeting selected model frames for sensational effect? These are getting passed around social media and general public are sharing as gospel. Even seeing some weather organizations and a TV channel doing it. Sad.

sorry if this isn't directly model related and feel free to delete mods. Just frustrated at what I am seeing.

[AxaltaRacing24]

There's no denying we have an encouraging trend for the CONUS but that's all it is...how many times have we seen models portray a threat, only to back off and then go back to the original solution? It happens a lot, especially in the long range so we'll just have to keep watching and remember the NHC only goes out 5 days for a reason. And speaking of the nearer term...it sure looks like a close shave...or perhaps worse for the northeast Caribbean. Yikes.

Didn't we just see that windshield wiper East/West shift with the GFS. I'd expect we'll see the same thing with the Euro in the next run with a shift back West.

Everything but the Euro shifted west. Where's the encouraging trend?

[Alyono]

all models shifted westward with regards to the USA EXCEPT for the EC

Not liking seeing these massive flips from it

That said, the threat to the Leeward Islands is most certainly INCREASING. All models have shifted closer to the Leewards

[toad strangler]

I'm riding the JMA like Seabiscuit. Get to the store fellas!

[sma10]

EURO essentially now agrees with the EPS

Yeah, lets see what the 12z eps looks like

[Raebie]

all models shifted westward with regards to the USA EXCEPT for the EC

Not liking seeing these massive flips from it

That said, the threat to the Leeward Islands is most certainly INCREASING. All models have shifted closer to the Leewards

Yep. 12 short hours ago it took out the Carolinas. One run right now means exactly nothing.

[tgenius]

all models shifted westward with regards to the USA EXCEPT for the EC

Not liking seeing these massive flips from it

That said, the threat to the Leeward Islands is most certainly INCREASING. All models have shifted closer to the Leewards

Alyono,

As someone who lived through Andrew. Is there a legitimate possibility of Irma doing the same as Andrew and realistically barreling into SFL?

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm riding the JMA like Seabiscuit. Get to the store fellas!

It should be noted that todays Euro and JMA are practically on top of each other at hour 120.

[Aric Dunn]

all models shifted westward with regards to the USA EXCEPT for the EC

Not liking seeing these massive flips from it

That said, the threat to the Leeward Islands is most certainly INCREASING. All models have shifted closer to the Leewards

Alyono,

As someone who lived through Andrew. Is there a legitimate possibility of Irma doing the same as Andrew and realistically barreling into SFL?

Im not him.. but the answer is a definite yes ! but a lot of other solutions are possible to..

[AdamFirst]

I'm riding the JMA like Seabiscuit. Get to the store fellas!

Imagine the Japanese model being the big winner for this storm...

Of course, I'd be a big loser, as it brings a monster cane right over me.

[Alyono]

all models shifted westward with regards to the USA EXCEPT for the EC

Not liking seeing these massive flips from it

That said, the threat to the Leeward Islands is most certainly INCREASING. All models have shifted closer to the Leewards

Alyono,

As someone who lived through Andrew. Is there a legitimate possibility of Irma doing the same as Andrew and realistically barreling into SFL?

becoming a far less likely solution

[Alyono]

all models shifted westward with regards to the USA EXCEPT for the EC

Not liking seeing these massive flips from it

That said, the threat to the Leeward Islands is most certainly INCREASING. All models have shifted closer to the Leewards

Alyono,

As someone who lived through Andrew. Is there a legitimate possibility of Irma doing the same as Andrew and realistically barreling into SFL?

Im not him.. but the answer is a definite yes !

just no Aric.

[Steve]

It's Day 8+ lol... would be more unusual if it did not flip-flip.

Inside Day 7 the models have been fairly consistent in their solutions.

I'm finding this year, inside of 5. I realize that's anecdotal, but I do run them pretty much every day.

In general, yes. I meant inside Day 7 only specifically for Irma (the close to Lesser Antilles -> SE Bahamas track). Large, strong hurricanes in the deep tropics under a ridge usually have higher confidence track forecasts.

I gotcha. For me, specifically with Irma, I like the models for the next 90 hours or so. They almost are in full agreement with an overall spread inside of 150-200 miles. Courtesy of Mike's Weather Page (didn't want to hotlink):

EC Ensembles (but from 00z) which did telegraph the operational
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance ... g?56739613

GFS Ensembles 12Z - 100% landfall with the ones he charts
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance ... g?64355680

18Z lesser Guidance
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

SFWMD
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_11

Literally everything is in line for 3-4 days. EC a little south of the consensus at the Islands. So I agree to that point. But I think the 5-8 days is fully suspect. Then will the Canadian high EC shows be too slow to stop Irma or is it working on becoming a block? I guess I have less confidence with Irma than you do in the 5-7 day range. I think it will be a Cat 4 and in the SW Atlantic at that point like the models generally do. But coming from S, SSE, SE? There's too much disparity. My take for now is there is a lot of flipping at this point except the GFS for now has settled on a mid-Atlantic system for a few runs. It will probably change and change again after that as it has adjusted northern upper patterns considerably. I guess I'm good for now with the models probably into about Wednesday am with a system north of Puerto Rico and coming up from the ESE at that point.

[sma10]

Oh yay!!! One European run OTS and its all clear according to certain posters

The models are still having a bit of trouble with this trough/ridge scenario which could change..what we know for sure is there will be a Cat 4-Cat 5 in the Bahamas next week..who knows where it goes from there

Remember the latest GFS run had a run into Delmarva so anyone who says it's all clear is a fool..the entire east coast is still in pkay

Tuesday we will have a better idea when it's north of the islands

I honestly try to ignore it now. People have always been like this and it will most likely never change. But it's important to not sound all clear alarms over one run.

I actually feel the complete opposite.
I am not relieved by this run at all. For better or worse, the Euro at least looked fairly consistent (as consistent as synoptics can be 9-10 days out), and then threw a completely different picture out. As others have written, the setup is complex and the models haven't locked in.

Relieved? Hardly. The only thing we DO have a degree in confidence in is that the Leewards could be under threat and possibly the Bahamas too. 5 days the Euro and HWRF has this thing sitting around 21-22N 69-70W, a fairly threatening location. If the Euro repeats another 2 or 3 times in a row, then that will be comforting.