ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is...this is scary. Like legitimately scary.

[Christiana]

I think we will be having a strengthening Cat 5 heading for the islands for the next 48 hours, so we definitely have to look out for them. I know most of the islands are more prepared than most of the people around here are, but a Cat 5 will be bad for anyone no matter how much they prepare.

I just got to say unfortunately for Hispaniola I got to hope that Irma goes over Hispaniola and gets disrupted or it will be bad for the Bahamas, Florida Keys, and Southern Florida, even if she goes straight through the Florida Straits it have tremendous effects on all in the path of Irma.

Irma I think if goes into the Bahamas and through Key West before turning North and goes up the Spine of Florida, this will turn into a 5 Trillion dollar storm and wouldn't be surprised to hear it be the deadliest storm in history also.

Speculation on dollar damage is one thing but to speculate on fatalities in the thousands is something else entirely. Deadliest in history? No, let's pray not. I've seen fatalities as the result of storm surge, walked past them. Let's don't go there. Protect yourself folks. ...And PLEASE don't think that your home is safe if it survived destruction in X Y or Z storm. In my neck of the woods we have a saying that Hurricane Camille killed more people in 2005 then in 1969. Many old timers stayed here on the MGC during Katrina because their home survived Camille, and they paid the ultimate price in the highest domestic storm surge in history. The highest recorded up to that storm was during Camille, 21 feet here in Pass Christian, Katrina dumped an additional 10 feet on top of the number. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Praying for you Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, do you think that sub 900 mb's will verify?

no not likely.. but I was just speaking hypothetically. It could easily become a cat 5 though..

I think there should be another category for sub 900mb storms (6).

The power upgrade of the storm is unbelievable in energy released @neg-900mb.

there of course have been talks over the years of such changes. but becasue the Saffir–Simpson is includes damage potential there is no need for a category 6 as for the most part at cat 5 strength damage is already pretty much complete destruction so adding a cat 6 is redundant.

[Ken711]

Keep in mind some of the models are having issues with forecasting intensity. Both the GFS and HMON have this issue. It may be a big storm, but probably cat 4, not 5. 5's are very rare, near impossible to predict, and they usually don't last very long.

SLIDER. The huge low pressure that will cause all the model issues is spinning over Canada, dropping a cold front through the Ohio valley. Impressively huge.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10152&y=7424&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

If it builds in and digs deep enough and stays long enough could this be the saving grace to CONUS and a way out for Irma?

[SouthFLTropics]

When you look up Major Hurricane in the dictionary there should be a picture of Irma displayed amongst the rest of the greats. This is about as impressive a storm as you will ever see. I never cease to be amazed at the power that these things produce. I wish all of our friends in the islands the best. My thoughts and prayers are with them and the remainder of everyone, myself included, who is under the gun. This will be a week that many of us will talk about for years to come and tell our grandchildren about.

[eastcoastFL]

Welp 7/11 in Palm City off of 95 and turnpike is out of gas already.

This is going to be rough. Stores are already empty and gas is already running out. Glad I got stocked up but a lot of people are going to be in trouble if they're waiting much longer.

[Blinhart]

I think we will be having a strengthening Cat 5 heading for the islands for the next 48 hours, so we definitely have to look out for them. I know most of the islands are more prepared than most of the people around here are, but a Cat 5 will be bad for anyone no matter how much they prepare.

I just got to say unfortunately for Hispaniola I got to hope that Irma goes over Hispaniola and gets disrupted or it will be bad for the Bahamas, Florida Keys, and Southern Florida, even if she goes straight through the Florida Straits it have tremendous effects on all in the path of Irma.

Irma I think if goes into the Bahamas and through Key West before turning North and goes up the Spine of Florida, this will turn into a 5 Trillion dollar storm and wouldn't be surprised to hear it be the deadliest storm in history also.

Speculation on dollar damage is one thing but to speculate on fatalities in the thousands is something else entirely. Deadliest in history? No, let's pray not. I've seen fatalities as the result of storm surge, walked past them. Let's don't go there. Protect yourself folks. ...And PLEASE don't think that your home is safe if it survived destruction in X Y or Z storm. In my neck of the woods we have a saying that Hurricane Camille killed more people in 2005 then in 1969. Many old timers stayed here on the MGC during Katrina because their home survived Camille, and they paid the ultimate price in the second highest domestic storm surge in history. The highest recorded up to that storm was during Camille, 21 feet here in Pass Christian, Katrina dumped an additional 10 feet on top of the number. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Praying for you Florida.

I agree I don't want it to be the deadliest storm in history, but I know there will be a lot of people that will not take this storm serious because they survived other storms (Andrew, Katrina, etc.) and if they wait to long to evacuate they will be stuck in a major parking lot when the winds and rains start up and won't be able to go anywhere, so that will be cause of deaths also. I'm just afraid a lot of people will be to lax about this.

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane goes to base after four passes.

[AdamFirst]

Welp 7/11 in Palm City off of 95 and turnpike is out of gas already.

Still early in the week. I anticipate more shipments of gas & basic supplies before week's end.

I filled up at a RaceTrac in Port Saint Lucie this morning. Drove to Palm Bay - gonna fill up when I get back tomorrow.

[NWFL56]

Irma really is putting on quite a display tonight! What an impressive looking tropical cyclone!! She is about as classical a storm can appear on satellite!!

Could indeed attain Cat 5 status later tonight or early tomorrow..

Sigh. Goodbye Soggy Dollar Bar.

Goodbye Foxys.

Sigh.

nooo

[hurricaneCW]

I agree I don't want it to be the deadliest storm in history, but I know there will be a lot of people that will not take this storm serious because they survived other storms (Andrew, Katrina, etc.) and if they wait to long to evacuate they will be stuck in a major parking lot when the winds and rains start up and won't be able to go anywhere, so that will be cause of deaths also. I'm just afraid a lot of people will be to lax about this.[/quote]

If there's anything good that came from Harvey is that a lot more people are aware of the damage these storms can cause and a lot more people are preparing now than they would have otherwise.

[SouthFLTropics]

Fuel trucks will be running over night I'm sure. In my experience the best time to fuel up is early AM, around 4:00AM.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050226
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 34 20170905
021700 1715N 05416W 6968 03152 0051 +095 +058 130055 055 040 001 00
021730 1717N 05416W 6965 03157 0047 +099 +057 129055 055 040 001 00
021800 1719N 05417W 6973 03149 0053 +095 +055 129056 056 040 002 00
021830 1721N 05417W 6970 03155 0060 +090 +064 126055 055 040 002 00
021900 1723N 05417W 6962 03162 0057 +091 +065 125056 056 040 003 00
021930 1726N 05418W 6965 03160 0057 +094 +056 126055 055 040 002 00
022000 1728N 05418W 6970 03156 0058 +094 +066 118059 060 040 002 00
022030 1730N 05418W 6967 03160 0057 +095 +063 119058 059 042 002 00
022100 1732N 05418W 6970 03159 0060 +095 +063 122058 059 041 002 00
022130 1734N 05419W 6968 03161 0053 +101 +058 121057 059 041 001 00
022200 1736N 05419W 6966 03163 0044 +108 +051 120055 057 041 002 00
022230 1738N 05419W 6966 03165 0048 +106 +049 123058 059 040 002 00
022300 1740N 05420W 6966 03164 0050 +105 +052 125059 059 040 002 00
022330 1742N 05420W 6967 03164 0052 +103 +050 127060 061 040 002 00
022400 1744N 05420W 6971 03160 0058 +099 +052 125059 060 040 002 00
022430 1746N 05421W 6963 03170 0065 +095 +056 124059 060 041 001 00
022500 1748N 05421W 6967 03167 0063 +098 +052 123058 059 043 001 00
022530 1750N 05421W 6967 03168 0062 +100 +051 124057 058 042 001 00
022600 1752N 05421W 6970 03165 0063 +100 +050 122059 059 042 001 00
022630 1754N 05422W 6967 03168 0066 +095 +056 121058 059 041 001 00
$$
;

[wxmann_91]

Please everyone stop talking about this being "the deadliest hurricane ever". Historically, water has killed about 1-2 order of magnitudes more people than wind. The east coast of Florida is not very surge prone, and Irma is not forecasted to stall and dump feet of rain like Harvey did. Irma is already very serious, we don't want to sprinkle on additional hyperboles.

[smithtim]

I am mentally preparing myself for this...no matter where it hits, I will be involved with response.

Amen brother! I've just got back to Florida, where my home is ocean side, from helping out in Rockport, TX. It is just bad amazing what there storms do just devastating but it is good amazing about how everyone pulls together & helps one another after into the recovery!!!

Now, for IRMA I've kinda been out of the loop but from the few things I have read & viewed I am seeing the correlation in track to 1935 Labour Day storm, except this one is booming way out at sea while the records "say" the 35 storm was still maybe TS strength around where Irma sits now ( of course I put the quotes on "say" as back them data was not exactly readily available so probably safe to say we really don't exactly know what the 35 storm was doing out at sea ). Of course while it is interesting to parallel prior storms I don't think that it is good forecasting tool LOL

[ozonepete]

Keep in mind some of the models are having issues with forecasting intensity. Both the GFS and HMON have this issue. It may be a big storm, but probably cat 4, not 5. 5's are very rare, near impossible to predict, and they usually don't last very long.

SLIDER. The huge low pressure that will cause all the model issues is spinning over Canada, dropping a cold front through the Ohio valley. Impressively huge.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10152&y=7424&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Ah yes my friend. Watch that trough and front. The further south the front goes and the more early-season chill it brings to the Gulf coast, the deeper your trough must be and the less further west Irma gets. Steering is everything and the steering is way too unclear until the end of this week to say how far west this will get.

[Patrick99]

Just me, or does the projected track here remind me a lot of Hurricane Cleo, just a little further north? That might be the better analog than Donna imo.

[smithtim]

Fuel trucks will be running over night I'm sure. In my experience the best time to fuel up is early AM, around 4:00AM.

Good advice... gotta keep in mind there is still a gas shortage in TX, getting better now but slowly.

[SootyTern]

no not likely.. but I was just speaking hypothetically. It could easily become a cat 5 though..

I think there should be another category for sub 900mb storms (6).

The power upgrade of the storm is unbelievable in energy released @neg-900mb.

there of course have been talks over the years of such changes. but becasue the Saffir–Simpson is includes damage potential there is no need for a category 6 as for the most part at cat 5 strength damage is already pretty much complete destruction so adding a cat 6 is redundant.

oh c'mon we want to be able to turn it up to 11

[Hurricane Andrew]

Keep in mind some of the models are having issues with forecasting intensity. Both the GFS and HMON have this issue. It may be a big storm, but probably cat 4, not 5. 5's are very rare, near impossible to predict, and they usually don't last very long.

SLIDER. The huge low pressure that will cause all the model issues is spinning over Canada, dropping a cold front through the Ohio valley. Impressively huge.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10152&y=7424&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Ah yes my friend. Watch that trough and front. The further south the front goes and the more early-season chill it brings to the Gulf coast, the deeper your trough must be and the less further west Irma gets. Steering is everything and the steering is way too unclear until the end of this week to say how far west this will get.

I agree. Personally (NOT A PROMET), I have a gut feeling we will see the models come a little more north and east...but we will see.