ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[got ants?]

Please everyone stop talking about this being "the deadliest hurricane ever". Historically, water has killed about 1-2 order of magnitudes more people than wind. The east coast of Florida is not very surge prone, and Irma is not forecasted to stall and dump feet of rain like Harvey did. Irma is already very serious, we don't want to sprinkle on additional hyperboles.

Exactly! Just whom and when are people evacuating, and where to. As it stands now, this could be an east coast, or west coast, or miss us completely (Florida). More than likely we'll get a strike, but the only ones that should be evacuating are those down in the Keys. Can you imagine if one quarter of miama-Dade/Broward evacuated? Where would they go?

Its not even assured the islands will get hit down below, though I just saw Channel 7 say Haiti/Dominica could get the brunt of the storm. I'm like, really? So can the Carolinas at this point...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050236
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 35 20170905
022700 1756N 05422W 6961 03177 0077 +087 +073 123058 059 041 002 00
022730 1758N 05423W 6959 03176 0071 +092 +054 123057 058 038 002 03
022800 1759N 05425W 6973 03164 0072 +092 +057 120055 057 /// /// 03
022830 1758N 05426W 6974 03161 0067 +095 +063 118052 054 040 002 00
022900 1756N 05427W 6967 03168 0085 +086 +077 120053 057 041 016 00
022930 1755N 05429W 6959 03174 0064 +095 +075 122058 059 044 008 00
023000 1754N 05430W 6965 03168 0054 +105 +050 119057 059 041 002 00
023030 1753N 05431W 6969 03162 0051 +105 +050 118056 056 043 002 00
023100 1751N 05433W 6967 03164 0052 +102 +053 117056 056 044 002 00
023130 1750N 05434W 6967 03161 0054 +100 +053 117056 057 044 001 00
023200 1749N 05436W 6966 03162 0049 +103 +051 118057 058 043 001 00
023230 1747N 05437W 6967 03159 0044 +104 +057 117056 057 043 002 00
023300 1746N 05438W 6969 03156 0040 +108 +055 115057 059 042 002 00
023330 1745N 05440W 6968 03156 0042 +105 +057 113058 063 042 001 00
023400 1743N 05441W 6967 03155 0040 +105 +051 113057 058 043 002 00
023430 1742N 05443W 6969 03150 0043 +101 +049 113057 058 043 001 00
023500 1740N 05444W 6967 03151 0043 +098 +053 113057 058 043 002 00
023530 1739N 05446W 6966 03151 0041 +098 +055 115059 059 043 002 00
023600 1738N 05447W 6967 03148 0045 +095 +056 115061 062 044 002 00
023630 1736N 05448W 6965 03149 0041 +096 +060 116061 063 045 002 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

Ok, I'm gonna say it... Just N of West??

[txwatcher91]

It could be just a wobble but last few frame of IR appear to be starting the WNW turn.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok, I'm gonna say it... Just N of West??

nope just the eye at lower levels footballing .. recon is litterally straight west..

[eastcoastFL]

Welp 7/11 in Palm City off of 95 and turnpike is out of gas already.

Still early in the week. I anticipate more shipments of gas & basic supplies before week's end.

I filled up at a RaceTrac in Port Saint Lucie this morning. Drove to Palm Bay - gonna fill up when I get back tomorrow.

I just bought some gas cans and filled them in Stuart. Gonna waste fuel in the morning going to work in Jupiter. Hopefully they'll have gas down there tomorrow.

[Ken711]

Keep in mind some of the models are having issues with forecasting intensity. Both the GFS and HMON have this issue. It may be a big storm, but probably cat 4, not 5. 5's are very rare, near impossible to predict, and they usually don't last very long.

SLIDER. The huge low pressure that will cause all the model issues is spinning over Canada, dropping a cold front through the Ohio valley. Impressively huge.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10152&y=7424&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Ah yes my friend. Watch that trough and front. The further south the front goes and the more early-season chill it brings to the Gulf coast, the deeper your trough must be and the less further west Irma gets. Steering is everything and the steering is way too unclear until the end of this week to say how far west this will get.

I agree. Personally (NOT A PROMET), I have a gut feeling we will see the models come a little more north and east...but we will see.

I agree.

[Patrick99]

Please everyone stop talking about this being "the deadliest hurricane ever". Historically, water has killed about 1-2 order of magnitudes more people than wind. The east coast of Florida is not very surge prone, and Irma is not forecasted to stall and dump feet of rain like Harvey did. Irma is already very serious, we don't want to sprinkle on additional hyperboles.

Exactly! Just whom and when are people evacuating, and where to. As it stands now, this could be an east coast, or west coast, or miss us completely (Florida). More than likely we'll get a strike, but the only ones that should be evacuating are those down in the Keys. Can you imagine if one quarter of miama-Dade/Broward evacuated? Where would they go?

Its not even assured the islands will get hit down below, though I just saw Channel 7 say Haiti/Dominica could get the brunt of the storm. I'm like, really? So can the Carolinas at this point...

Yes. You can't evacuate even 25% of Dade, Broward and Palm Beach....you just can't. That is precisely why it is recommended that most of us just try to ride it out. And yeah, people don't realize that we have this giant chunk of coral rock called the coastal ridge that makes us not as surge-prone as other coastal areas. Go to Coconut Grove for proof....it's quite dramatic there.

[eastcoastFL]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra has been changed to a Hurricane Warning.

The government of Antigua has changed the Hurricane Watch for the
British Virgin Islands to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.7 North,
longitude 55.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane
Hunter observations is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

[stormreader]

[Ken711]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra has been changed to a Hurricane Warning.

The government of Antigua has changed the Hurricane Watch for the
British Virgin Islands to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.7 North,
longitude 55.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane
Hunter observations is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

When is the turn to the wnw expected to occur?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050246
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 36 20170905
023700 1735N 05450W 6962 03148 0041 +092 +062 116061 061 046 003 00
023730 1734N 05451W 6967 03143 0040 +094 +059 117061 062 047 002 00
023800 1732N 05453W 6967 03138 0040 +089 +060 117062 063 046 003 00
023830 1731N 05454W 6967 03136 0030 +094 +060 118061 063 048 002 00
023900 1730N 05456W 6967 03131 0026 +093 +067 118061 062 048 003 00
023930 1728N 05457W 6970 03123 0032 +083 +078 118063 069 048 005 00
024000 1727N 05458W 6963 03127 0027 +083 +072 119073 075 049 005 00
024030 1726N 05500W 6970 03115 0021 +084 +077 122072 075 050 005 00
024100 1724N 05501W 6968 03112 0018 +084 //// 124072 073 052 004 01
024130 1723N 05502W 6973 03104 0014 +084 +079 123070 071 052 005 00
024200 1722N 05504W 6964 03111 0018 +078 +071 123073 073 049 008 00
024230 1721N 05505W 6966 03108 0007 +084 +065 126077 078 055 005 00
024300 1719N 05506W 6961 03108 0003 +086 //// 126077 078 057 006 01
024330 1718N 05508W 6974 03087 0000 +083 +078 126083 084 057 006 00
024400 1717N 05509W 6962 03097 9990 +082 +078 127082 083 057 006 00
024430 1716N 05510W 6970 03080 9983 +082 +080 124083 085 058 008 00
024500 1714N 05512W 6963 03080 9988 +082 //// 126081 085 060 008 01
024530 1713N 05513W 6968 03069 9989 +088 +088 127082 085 058 010 00
024600 1712N 05514W 6971 03059 9988 +089 +089 132092 094 061 015 03
024630 1711N 05515W 6965 03058 9970 +090 +090 135092 093 062 012 00
$$
;

[Patrick99]

Looks like she's flattening out to mostly due west now, maybe a shade south of due west.

[jdjaguar]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra has been changed to a Hurricane Warning.

The government of Antigua has changed the Hurricane Watch for the
British Virgin Islands to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.7 North,
longitude 55.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane
Hunter observations is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

When is the turn to the wnw expected to occur?

Late tomorrow per the 11:00 update

[LCfromFL]

For those in Florida...have you seen the Florida Division of Emergency Management's Disaster Preparedness Map? http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/ You can put in your address and find out what evacuation zone you are in. It also shows surge atlases. Governor Scott referenced this site: http://www.floridadisaster.org/getaplan/default.aspx for assistance with developing individual family plans.

(Mods - do you think this should be a sticky?)

[eastcoastFL]

Local forecast here from Sat- Mon so far is for sustained TS winds for 3 days. Should be interesting...

[caneseddy]

New 5 day cone has Irma at 24.0N 80W at 130 mph...almost due south of Miami

[HurricaneBelle]

Why are we quoting the entire advisory to ask a one-liner that isn't specific to the advisory, and why are we answering said one-liner with the entire advisory quoted AGAIN?

[drewschmaltz]

For those in Florida...have you seen the Florida Division of Emergency Management's Disaster Preparedness Map? http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/ You can put in your address and find out what evacuation zone you are in. It also shows surge atlases. Governor Scott referenced this site: http://www.floridadisaster.org/getaplan/default.aspx for assistance with developing individual family plans.

(Mods - do you think this should be a sticky?)

I'm having trouble using this. Are areas suppose to be shaded once you put your address in?

[Blown Away]

New 5 day cone has Irma at 24.0N 80W at 130 mph...almost due south of Miami

5 day point is a 60 mile (1 degree) adjustment N from 5pm...