WPAC: NORU - Low

[1900hurricane]

The way the core has filled back in actually reminds me of Ike '08 immediately before landfall. That one was at a very similar latitude too. Just for reference, Ike was 950 mb at landfall (I actually measured 969 mb in the western eyewall at my parents's house).

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

last ascat i could find.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

meso on the radar to the N on the island?
http://27.121.95.132/en/highresorad/

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 62//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION WITH A 45 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM JMA DEPICTING A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 80 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER HAVE NOT EXCEEDED 50 KNOTS,
SUGGESTING DVORAK ESTIMATES MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
IMPROVEMENT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ROBUST AND THE POLEWARD CHANNEL
IS IMPROVING DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE REGION ARE VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 31
CELSIUS. TY 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER FAVORABLE WATERS,
AND OUTFLOW TAPS INTO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE SYSTEM IN THE NEAR TERM BUT
DEGRADE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ERODING THE STEERING RIDGE. TY
07W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWEST KYUSHU JUST AFTER
TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
CONSIDERABLY AS TY 07W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER SHIKOKU AND WESTERN
HONSHU.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE SEA OF
JAPAN AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM REINTENSIFYING. TY
07W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE DYNAMIC TROUGH AROUND TAU 72
SLOWLY TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TY 07W IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, COAMPS, AND HWRF WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK DUE TO A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION .
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK.
THUS, CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING IN THE FORECAST BUT DUE TO THE OUTLIERS
MENTIONED ABOVE THERE REMAINS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Josh Morgerman aka iCyclone is going to be one happy man. He just arrived in Ibusaki and will be in grounds zero.

[euro6208]

Amami Oshima literally getting pounded by heavy rains. Some areas receiving close to 2 to over 3 inch an hour today.

[euro6208]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

James Reynolds is also covering Noru https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 63//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
A 45NM EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
AND SUPPORTED BY ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 050429Z AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
PRESENT PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE RESULT OF THE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO TRACK OVER LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 80 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TANEGASHIMA ISLAND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM ARE SHOWING 60 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND IS TRACKING THOUGH WARM (31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TY 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST, BRIEFLY ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER,
TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. AS
THE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE
AND THE SUB TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. TYPHOON
NORU IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWEST KYUSHU AROUND
TAU 24. INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN JAPAN AND
INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER SHIKOKU AND WESTERN HONSHU. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO HIGH AND THE COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT THE
SYSTEM FROM REINTENSIFYING. TYPHOON NORU WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PRIOR TO TAU 72 AND THUS BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. DUE TO TROUGH INTERACTION AND THE COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SEA OF JAPAN, TYPHOON NORU IS FORECAST
TO COMPLETE EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS
SHOWING A MORE EASTWARD TRACK DUE TO MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH-RIDGE
INTERACTION. DESPITE THE NAVGEM SOLUTION, THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS
IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

991.7 mb in Ibusaki tweeted by Josh. Basically Noru has stalled within the last few hours.

James safely in Shibushi.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 956.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 4.9 4.9

[NotoSans]

Down to 970mb/65kt from the JMA. Surface observations have been very unimpressive so far.

[1900hurricane]

Dry air appears to have run Noru amuck once again.

[euro6208]

Wow if it weren't for the dry air, the EURO and GFS runs might have verified. Lucky for Japan!

[euro6208]

Noru really doesn't want to go away. It not only stalled but looks to have U-turned or is the convection fooling me?

[NotoSans]

Central pressure seems to be near 970mb according to surface observations from Yakushima.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Dry air appears to have run Noru amuck once again.

Yes from mids to the surface. As usual you are spot on.