ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

very deep convection is increasing and the eye is contracting on sat.. pressure and winds will be going up soon..

[drewschmaltz]

Why are we quoting the entire advisory to ask a one-liner that isn't specific to the advisory, and why are we answering said one-liner with the entire advisory quoted AGAIN?

Correction: a one liner that is answered by the advisory: "late Tuesday".

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050257
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 37 20170905
024700 1710N 05517W 6967 03050 9960 +091 +091 136088 092 064 014 03
024730 1708N 05518W 6962 03048 9954 +079 +079 135088 091 069 015 00
024800 1707N 05519W 6957 03043 9946 +089 +089 130093 097 072 024 00
024830 1706N 05520W 6983 03008 9942 +097 +097 130097 098 074 013 00
024900 1705N 05521W 6963 03022 9921 +090 +090 128095 097 074 013 00
024930 1704N 05523W 6969 03005 9918 +092 +092 129101 104 077 016 00
025000 1703N 05524W 6967 02993 9895 +098 +098 134101 105 078 013 00
025030 1701N 05525W 6963 02991 9873 +103 +103 134102 104 081 015 00
025100 1700N 05526W 6960 02977 9854 +105 +105 132102 105 084 019 00
025130 1659N 05527W 6975 02943 9838 +104 +104 134108 114 085 023 00
025200 1658N 05529W 6974 02923 9814 +110 +110 131113 116 088 017 00
025230 1657N 05530W 6953 02927 9792 +111 +111 132114 119 095 022 00
025300 1656N 05531W 6977 02873 9761 +109 +109 134117 119 107 015 00
025330 1655N 05532W 6971 02856 9735 +108 +108 134122 123 109 018 00
025400 1654N 05533W 6969 02831 9698 +110 +110 135127 128 113 023 03
025430 1653N 05534W 6974 02796 9664 +110 +110 137131 132 113 026 03
025500 1652N 05535W 6965 02769 9625 +116 +116 135132 133 120 019 00
025530 1651N 05536W 6949 02751 9569 +124 +124 135120 131 126 023 00
025600 1650N 05537W 6985 02672 9469 +146 +138 129082 107 126 017 03
025630 1648N 05539W 6963 02683 9445 +164 +141 131065 071 095 000 00
$$
;

133 kt FL, 126 kt SFMR. Continues to strengthen - supports 125 or 130 kt.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty high SFMR winds catching up top to the flight level... I would up winds to 145

025400 1654N 05533W 6969 02831 9698 +110 +110 135127 128 113 023 03
025430 1653N 05534W 6974 02796 9664 +110 +110 137131 132 113 026 03
025500 1652N 05535W 6965 02769 9625 +116 +116 135132 133 120 019 00
025530 1651N 05536W 6949 02751 9569 +124 +124 135120 131 126 023 00
025600 1650N 05537W 6985 02672 9469 +146 +138 129082 107 126 017 03
025630 1648N 05539W 6963 02683 9445 +164 +141 131065 071 095 000 00

[bjackrian]

I've noticed this before--why are there discontinuities in the wind probability product, eg the red 70% probability area isolated to the NE of Barbuda?

[Kazmit]

[JaxGator]

The Publix down the road from me is out of water already per WJXT 4. So are other ones throughout town.

[SouthDadeFish]

AF flight measured 126 kt SFMR and 133 kt flight-level in the NE eyewall. One could argue the intensity is now 125 kt.

[drewschmaltz]

I've noticed this before--why are there discontinuities in the wind probability product, eg the red 70% probability area isolated to the NE of Barbuda?

Interesting observation. I have a thought: The intensity of the hurricane is given by a set of data points but the probability model is given by an equation. All of a sudden a new data point (intensity) is calculated and the probability then returns to high enough, but just high enough, to have red. Then, it quickly drops off again.

My guess is it is something like this (i'm sorry I went crazy with this):

Code: Select all

dataPoints = [
  {
    time: 0,
    intensity: 100
  },
  {
    time: 1,
    intensity: 150
  }
];

function closestDataPoint(time) {
  var differenece;
  foreach(dataPoint) {
    difference[] = dataPoint.time - time;
  }
  var lowestDifference Math.min(difference);
  return dataPoints[difference.indexOf(lowestDifference)];
}

function getIntensity(time) {
  return closestDataPoint(time).intensity;
}

foreach(point, time) {
  // returns probability for a place in time.
  var now = Date();
  var dampener = 1/(time - now);
  var probability = getIntensity(time) * dampener);
  if(probability > 70) {
    return 'red';
  }
  // and continue for lower probabilities
}


[eastcoastFL]

New 5 day cone has Irma at 24.0N 80W at 130 mph...almost due south of Miami

5 day point is a 60 mile (1 degree) adjustment N from 5pm...

They're pretty good within 5 days. Wonder how much of a variance we'll see over the next 4-5 days from the Nhc.

[MrJames]

The Publix down the road from me is out of water already per WJXT 4. So are other ones throughout town.

Costco was closed today. Tomorrow should be interesting there.

[AdamFirst]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050306
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 38 20170905
025700 1647N 05540W 6969 02660 9433 +161 +144 131054 062 059 001 00
025730 1646N 05541W 6974 02645 9420 +165 +135 128044 050 044 001 00
025800 1644N 05543W 6967 02643 9424 +151 +135 126031 040 036 002 00
025830 1643N 05544W 6966 02639 //// +144 //// 129024 028 035 001 01
025900 1642N 05545W 6970 02631 9413 +146 +141 129017 022 031 001 05
025930 1640N 05546W 6965 02633 9413 +148 +135 148005 016 024 002 00
030000 1639N 05547W 6968 02628 9414 +145 +133 283008 012 027 002 01
030030 1637N 05548W 6966 02637 9419 +149 +139 291017 021 026 001 03
030100 1636N 05549W 6971 02638 9426 +152 +119 295028 031 036 001 00
030130 1635N 05550W 6964 02654 9424 +160 +110 292035 038 047 002 03
030200 1633N 05552W 6974 02649 9441 +152 +128 297052 061 087 004 00
030230 1632N 05553W 6967 02685 9484 +136 +134 304080 087 099 004 00
030300 1631N 05554W 6953 02730 9532 +131 +131 308102 105 101 007 00
030330 1630N 05555W 6963 02756 9589 +121 +120 305107 109 100 011 00
030400 1629N 05556W 6963 02789 9622 +120 //// 302105 109 098 008 01
030430 1628N 05557W 6974 02807 9670 +110 //// 303100 102 093 007 01
030500 1627N 05558W 6967 02842 9680 +113 +113 301096 097 085 006 00
030530 1626N 05559W 6967 02865 9705 +116 //// 302094 097 085 004 01
030600 1625N 05600W 6963 02891 9732 +114 //// 300086 092 084 006 01
030630 1624N 05601W 6974 02895 9753 +113 +112 306083 085 083 007 00
$$
;

[HDGator]

The Publix down the road from me is out of water already per WJXT 4. So are other ones throughout town.

There's no water in Florida. I can confirm from Palm Beach County. We are on our own.

[Aric Dunn]

this last pass was ..just slightly south of west.. though not much..

[sponger]

Going to be awfully close for PR! CBS NY is talking here about the degradation of PR's power infrastructure due to the recession and that some could be out for 4-6 weeks! Correction...Months!

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/09/04/hurricane-irma-now-a-category-4-storm-as-it-heads-for-eastern-caribbean/?utm_source=newser.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange_article&utm_term=pubexchange_article-cbs_local-newser

[SunnyThoughts]

Water is pretty much gone in Pensacola as well.

[MrJames]

Per the 11PM:

Wind speeds: Day 5: 115kts.

Looks like they forecasting this weaken a little.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0234.shtml?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Getting chills watching this on IR...holy cow.

[psyclone]

that last advisory position is a terrifying tease