ATL: IRMA - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3401 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:25 pm

NC getting grazed
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3402 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:25 pm

GFS pulls this nonsense all the time in the WPAC, especially with TC's on approach to Japan. Far too strong of a TC for that latitude.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3403 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:26 pm

Big time slow down and intensification run-to-run 9/10 12Z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3404 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:26 pm

moving toward NC
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3405 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:27 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:GFS pulls this nonsense all the time in the WPAC, especially with TC's on approach to Japan. Far too strong of a TC for that latitude.


the way this is interacting with the trough, it is actually semi plausible. Look at the IR to see just how absurd the outflow jet is
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3406 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:27 pm

A stall is definitely on the table also folks. Both HP ridges are bridging together and Irma just could get stuck and stall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3407 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:29 pm

so.. about 6 to 8 hrs slower for irma and stonger.. and about 6 hours faster on the trough.. interesting. though .. its still too far out.

still have to wait and see how far south this goes in the next 3 days.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3408 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:29 pm

Looks like it will head into Chesapeake Bay at 204 hours
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3409 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:29 pm

looks like Irma doesn't want to drain the swamp but fill it with about a 20 foot plus storm surge...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3410 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:29 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3411 Postby Vdogg » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:30 pm

They'd have to issue a Hurricane warning for the entire Mid-Atlantic if this verifies...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3412 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:30 pm

gale wind or higher everywhere from SC to NY
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3413 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:30 pm

So another southwest shift with the GFS...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3414 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:31 pm

Basically rides the whole entire Chesapeake
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3415 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:31 pm

Euro vs GFS

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3416 Postby NJWxHurricane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:So another southwest shift with the GFS...

it bounces around
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3417 Postby Happy Pelican » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Looks like it will head into Chesapeake Bay at 204 hours


This puts Jersey Shore in the Northeast quadrant. We'll be crushed by the wind and surge. Damn. I literally just finished rebuilding from Sandy this past June. :double:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3418 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:So another southwest shift with the GFS...

The euro ensembles shifted SW too. The trend continues. Keep in mind that if the euro would've showed a south landfall if not for that "miracle motion."
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3419 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

Crushing...

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3420 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

At 933 MB, swamp is at max full....geesh... GFS sticking to its guns on this...
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