ATL: IRMA - Models

[NJWxHurricane]

How far southwest Irma is in the next few days will determine where she ends up. In my humble opinion she either hits Florida or the Carolinas if she is going to make landfall. I don't buy these Northeast landfalls the GFS has shown, I refuse to believe the GFS will nail a landfall location 10 days out.

euro sends this ots

Only one run, not a trend.

euro typically doesn't shift around drastically like the gfs

[Steve]

18Z HWRF dips the track further south below 17N so will likely be the southern outlier.

18Z NAVGEM, apparently one of the best (!) performing model so far with Irma, does as well. It's at around 16.6N at 48 hours so far.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Steve]

euro sends this ots

Only one run, not a trend.

euro typically doesn't shift around drastically like the gfs

Except that it did. It went South Carolina to Out to Sea in 12 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

euro sends this ots

Only one run, not a trend.

euro typically doesn't shift around drastically like the gfs

You're right...it normally doesn't. Except between 00z last night and 12z today it did.

[ConvergenceZone]

Also remember that Euro's "out to sea" is relying on threading the needle on perfect timing and positioning of the high and trough. I'm not saying that it can't be right, but I think the chance of it being right is pretty slim

[NJWxHurricane]

wouldn't put too much stock into it then

[caneman]

Only one run, not a trend.

euro typically doesn't shift around drastically like the gfs

Except that it did. It went South Carolina to Out to Sea in 12 hours.

Agreed Steve, Go back to 60 hours and the Euro had it in Key West. The amount of misinformation spread really should stop. Back it up with facts such as prior model runs

[Steve]

HWRF has crossed 17 at 72 hours (Tuesday 1pm Central)..

It's at 17.1N 58.3W at 927mb @ 72 hours
It's at 17.4N 60.15W at 924.mb @ 81 hours. So the Northern component is there at that point (WNW)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

Very intense system depicted by the HWRF.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ever so slowly the HWRF is creeping further South between runs.

[Aric Dunn]

81 hours.. looks like its going to go right through the NE islands.

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF dips the track further south below 17N so will likely be the southern outlier.

18Z NAVGEM, apparently one of the best (!) performing model so far with Irma, does as well. It's at around 16.6N at 48 hours so far.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

Lets hope it is just 18Z thing.

We have seen crucial track changes in just the last 6 hours before landfall.
After the turn back WNW we will see.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is going to be EXTREMELY CLOSE!!! HWRF has lost its ever loving mind with the INTENSITY!!!

[Aric Dunn]

917 mb passing through the islands.. at 87 hours..

[NJWxHurricane]

18z HMON is north of 18z HWRF.

[sma10]

I still think these models are too far north with this. Not by much but still too far north.

Here's why:

1.) I don't think (or hope) that Irma will be near as powerful in the Bahamian vicinity as the models are showing. If that is the case then it shouldn't be steered north as soon as it is showing.
2.) I don't think Irma will move as fast as some of the models are showing.
3.) IMHO I feel the end game is an approach to the Florida coastline with a turn to the north and a strike near the SC/NC line. I'm sticking with my Floyd analog.

I agree. Been saying my "Irma window" begins at Cape Fear, NC and is open south to the north Cuban coast. So I definitely agree with you that a move toward the SC/NC line is much more likely than further north. I wrote off anything from the Outer Banks on North yesterday. That would imply due north at that time. Think there will be continued westerly component during that 9 day period from now. I'll bet many scoff at me keeping the window open as far south as the Fl Straits and the Cuban coast. But things can change quickly, and if the trough is filled in more quickly than expected, I think you could still see a more W component into S Fl or even the Fl Straits. Anyway, I think your SC/NC call is very reasonable.

There is an expression when odds are laid out prior to a golf tournament called "the field". That is when, instead of betting on one of the favorites, you choose one of the other players not on the board. I have a sneaky suspicion that the field is a good bet right now.

[Steve]

euro typically doesn't shift around drastically like the gfs

Except that it did. It went South Carolina to Out to Sea in 12 hours.

Agreed Steve, Go back to 60 hours and the Euro had it in Key West. The amount of misinformation spread really should stop. Back it up with facts such as prior model runs

Word. He noted it though, and I do agree with NJ that it doesn't usually vary run for run as much as it did. Interestingly, and ultimately right or wrong, the GFS has been very consistent (!) the last several runs. I know it runs twice as much as the European, but the last out to sea run from GFS was 12Z yesterday. It's focused on the mid-Atlantic since 18z yesterday so 5 straight runs. It's probably full of ****, but for as often as I bash it, it has been consistent for a day now. Too far out to know, and I don't know what planet I'm on when the GFS is showing the ridging in the 8 day time frame near the US East Coast and the EC is going the other way. Also, I am nearly shocked at the 3.5 - 4 day agreement between 18Z GFS and 12Z EC. They're not identical, but those are very close early on.

[jlauderdal]

This is going to be EXTREMELY CLOSE!!! HWRF has lost its ever loving mind with the INTENSITY!!!

Annular

[SouthFLTropics]

Have some GEFS Ensembles...take your pick East Coast

[Bocadude85]

Barbuda in the Southern eyewall on the 18z HWRF

[Hurricane Andrew]

Have some GEFS Ensembles...take your pick East Coast

HAHAHAHA...so...anyone wanna buy me a boat? Looking up RHIB prices now...