ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Not looking as good on satellite past few clips, IMO...

[Portaransas]

For those who may not be as familiar with the Texas coast, Port Aransas, located on Mustang island is a hugely popular tourist destination for Texans. You get there either by ferry on the north side of the island or via a large bridge from Corpus.

In recent years it has boomed in popularity. Summer populations are over 60k. It is easily the one of most popular beach destinations in Texas. When us Austinites, and folks in SA, talk about going to "the coast" it's often where we're heading. Especially family friendly place where you can drive for miles down the beach and pick out your favorite spot. There's been a ton of brand new residential and commercial construction lately, including an Arnold Palmer golf course that sits in/ just behind the dunes.

My family has gone there every year since I was born (I'm 37). They have a good dune system but the island is very flat and basically at sea level. To the west of the island is Corpus Christi bay and no elevation or dunes. I fear that if Harvey has our beloved "Port A" in his sights, it may be devestated. The cost to the area would be extreme.

Say a prayer for Port Aransas, and for all the folks who will be affected.

[Javlin]

Could remain a hurricane for 2 days after landfall, according to the weather channel

That's insane and then the flooding that will be a tough slog to endure 4 clicks N and 2W

[canetracker]

anyone got the VDM ?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 14:31Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 27
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 14:14:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°35'N 95°58'W (26.5833N 95.9667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 104 statute miles (168 km) to the ENE (64°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,651m (8,698ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 86kts (~ 99.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 134° at 97kts (From the SE at ~ 111.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.03 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.25 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the ESE (120°) from the flight level center at 13:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 100kts (~ 115.1mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (360°) from the flight level center at 14:22:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 170° at 17kts (From the S at 20mph)

[tolakram]

visible loop

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=27&lon=-96&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=20&quality=92

[p1nheadlarry]

Not looking as good on satellite past few clips, IMO...

Once the new eye wall closes off, probably going to see a jump in the winds tonight

[Red eye]

My sister's employer (out of galveston) said "Full day on Friday and Monday". They are on Galveston island but I still don't get it. Shriner's and UTMB.

I recommended it. I just hope we don't have to go get them in my boat.

[xironman]

Harvey has it going on now. Fully developed CDO and mesos screaming around the center. I just hope the evacuated the barrier islands by now.

[txwatcher91]

Looks like the inner eye has almost completely collapsed and emerged with outer eyewall. Expect deepening to resume soon.

[Aric Dunn]

that outer eye is becomimng very intense the last 30 min or so and has contracted quite a bit .. at least on radar.

recon is about to do a pass through the most intense area...

[Blinhart]

My sister's employer (out of galveston) said "Full day on Friday and Monday". They are on Galveston island but I still don't get it. Shriner's and UTMB.

I recommended it. I just hope we don't have to go get them in my boat.

Hell if the flooding gets as bad as last August here, we will be locked in ourselves.

[otowntiger]

So it sounds like there is a chance this won't make it to cat 3 status, based on what I read in the 11:00 NHC discussion. I know it certainly could strengthen and they say that, but they are leaving open the possibility that it won't which could certainly be good news for the areas directly in the path of the eyewall, I know that may not be huge in the big picture but every little bit helps. There is certainly a big difference in 110 winds vs 130 or higher. Of course as its made very clear, the biggest threat is the rain and storm surge flooding which will likely be severe regardless of its exact strength. Also another observation is that it is clearly not slowing down is also a bit of good news in that is will have less time to strengthen, and may move farther inland allowing for more weakening prior to the possible gulf re-entry. Just a couple amateur observations here.

[gatorcane]

It looks like a CAT 3 to me based on SAT presentation. At this point a strong CAT 2 or CAT 3 really doesn't make a difference as far as impact...and who knows Harvey may have more surprises in store as well.

[RL3AO]

There is certainly a big difference in 110 winds vs 130 or higher.

But there isn't a big difference between 110 mph (cat 2) and 111 mph (cat 3).

[stephen23]

So it sounds like there is a chance this won't make it to cat 3 status, based on what I read in the 11:00 NHC discussion. I know it certainly could strengthen and they say that, but they are leaving open the possibility that it won't which could certainly be good news for the areas directly in the path of the eyewall, I know that may not be huge in the big picture but every little bit helps. There is certainly a big difference in 110 winds vs 130 or higher. Of course as its made very clear, the biggest threat is the rain and storm surge flooding which will likely be severe regardless of its exact strength. Also another observation is that it is clearly not slowing down is also a bit of good news in that is will have less time to strengthen, and may move farther inland allowing for more weakening prior to the possible gulf re-entry. Just a couple amateur observations here.

Not sure what the difference is in 1mph to make this less dangerous. Storm is 110mph. Cat 3 is 111mph

[tolakram]

Visual seems to show it's already rebuilding convection.

15:02z

[Blinhart]

So it sounds like there is a chance this won't make it to cat 3 status, based on what I read in the 11:00 NHC discussion. I know it certainly could strengthen and they say that, but they are leaving open the possibility that it won't which could certainly be good news for the areas directly in the path of the eyewall, I know that may not be huge in the big picture but every little bit helps. There is certainly a big difference in 110 winds vs 130 or higher. Of course as its made very clear, the biggest threat is the rain and storm surge flooding which will likely be severe regardless of its exact strength. Also another observation is that it is clearly not slowing down is also a bit of good news in that is will have less time to strengthen, and may move farther inland allowing for more weakening prior to the possible gulf re-entry. Just a couple amateur observations here.

They weren't expecting it to slow down much until later on today, and most of the models don't have this going in land that far at all anymore, and TWC sounds like they are thinking that this storm won't weaken as much as the NHC guidance says. So if the experts can't even agree on what is going to happen, there is no way us amateurs have a chance of getting this correct.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

You can see the dry air entrainment leading to the core on vapor unfortunately it has not weakened the cane.

[txwatcher91]

You can tell the CDO is expanding in intensity and coverage now based on radar/satellite, this is usually indicative of an EWRC finishing.

[hd44]

With ewrc in full swing this is likely to landfall as cat 2. I don't anticipate any more intensification . However impacts wont change much between 110 vs 120 mph.