ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3481 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:27 pm

looks like PR is going to get the southern portion of the hurricane force winds. any wobble in a track like this would put the eye over many islands and PR>
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3482 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:28 pm

GEFS Trend from 12z to 18z

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3483 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:28 pm

Direct hit on Anguilla at 93hr this run?
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ATL: IRMA - Models

#3484 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:29 pm

Image

The 18z NAVGEM shifts west near the central bahamas


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3485 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:29 pm

Watch out Anguilla and Saint Martin...141 knots!!! :eek:

Image
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3486 Postby SouthFloridian92 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:30 pm

Why do the ensembles show hit over FL but models show a northern track?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3487 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:31 pm

SouthFloridian92 wrote:Why do the ensembles show hit over FL but models show a northern track?


Because there are a TON of variables still in play. Long range I'm looking at the trend of the ensembles over the operational any day of the week.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3488 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:31 pm

Well damn
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3489 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:32 pm

Watch out Luis...Here it comes.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3490 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:33 pm

The HMON is drunk
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3491 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:33 pm

SouthFloridian92 wrote:Why do the ensembles show hit over FL but models show a northern track?


I don't know the physics of the model and doubt maybe anyone but GCANE or Aric could even begin to tell you with a straight face. But sometimes it's forerunner to what happens. You saw the EPS 00Z models with many out to sea and the 12Z operational followed. It doesn't always work like that, but usually the ensembles get it. Odd that they're coagulating down there on the 18Z run. Maybe GFS wants to take the system farther west before turning up.
Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3492 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:33 pm

looking @ the hwrf post above by steve, the graphic IRMA may develop concentric eyewalls
in the forecast period.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3493 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:34 pm

The HWRF/HMON intensity trend is somewhat worrying...has been going on for multiple runs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3494 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:34 pm

:uarrow: 880MB at 25N...Possible? Maybe. Likely...I don't think so!!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3495 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:36 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Well damn
Image

What about it? Am I missing something?
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3496 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:36 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote::uarrow: 880MB at 25N...Possible? Maybe. Likely...I don't think so!!!


Doesn't the GFS also over estimate intensity?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3497 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:37 pm

Another run like this and Puerto Rico is dealing with the eye of a Cat 5... HWRF Trend

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3498 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:37 pm

looks like the NHC will be shifting track down to the Islands. :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3499 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:37 pm

18z HWRF blasts the British virgin islands.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3500 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:37 pm

So HWRF is basically 1 full latitude degree south of 12z run. Which begs this relevant question: how reliable is this model? Any biases? How much stock should we put into its solution?
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