ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
looks like PR is going to get the southern portion of the hurricane force winds. any wobble in a track like this would put the eye over many islands and PR>
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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ATL: IRMA - Models

The 18z NAVGEM shifts west near the central bahamas
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Why do the ensembles show hit over FL but models show a northern track?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
SouthFloridian92 wrote:Why do the ensembles show hit over FL but models show a northern track?
Because there are a TON of variables still in play. Long range I'm looking at the trend of the ensembles over the operational any day of the week.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
SouthFloridian92 wrote:Why do the ensembles show hit over FL but models show a northern track?
I don't know the physics of the model and doubt maybe anyone but GCANE or Aric could even begin to tell you with a straight face. But sometimes it's forerunner to what happens. You saw the EPS 00Z models with many out to sea and the 12Z operational followed. It doesn't always work like that, but usually the ensembles get it. Odd that they're coagulating down there on the 18Z run. Maybe GFS wants to take the system farther west before turning up.
Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
looking @ the hwrf post above by steve, the graphic IRMA may develop concentric eyewalls
in the forecast period.
in the forecast period.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
The HWRF/HMON intensity trend is somewhat worrying...has been going on for multiple runs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Well damn
What about it? Am I missing something?
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote::uarrow: 880MB at 25N...Possible? Maybe. Likely...I don't think so!!!
Doesn't the GFS also over estimate intensity?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
looks like the NHC will be shifting track down to the Islands. 

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
So HWRF is basically 1 full latitude degree south of 12z run. Which begs this relevant question: how reliable is this model? Any biases? How much stock should we put into its solution?
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