ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CryHavoc]

There is no good news with Harvey, I still think he will reach Cat 4 status prior to landfall as the winds are still trying to catch up.

This will very likely be one of the biggest if not the biggest natural disaster in US history.

Please stop with this kind of hyperbole.

We know it will be bad, but it doesn't do any good to speculate about damage right now except in the sense of trying to warn people to be safe and not venture out into this storm.

I don't think it's that hyperbolic. Likely will be one of the worst natural disasters in the US this century (to date).

Fair enough. I think "this century" which is only 17 years old is a pretty important distinction between the history of our nation. I also find it hard to fathom that this would pass Katrina for damage considered it completely flooded a major US city.

Hopefully the fatalities stay lower at the very least. Sad to think that people can see their doom coming and are doing nothing about it.

[Aric Dunn]

also no longer in a ERC.. its complete.. contracted from 28 to 18 in an hour...

. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)

[goCoogs]

With ewrc in full swing this is likely to landfall as cat 2. I don't anticipate any more intensification . However impacts wont change much between 110 vs 120 mph.

Seeing as it's just about done and the environment is still favorable for additional strengthening, I think you'd be wrong with that prediction.

We shall see, though. As you said, it's not going to make a huge difference.

It will make more of a difference than one would think. A 120 mph wind generates about 20% more force than a 110 mph wind.

[forecasterjack]

Poleward outflow on GOES-16 loops is about as textbook as it gets https://weather.us/satellite/texas/sate ... .html#play

[KC7NEC]

There is no good news with Harvey, I still think he will reach Cat 4 status prior to landfall as the winds are still trying to catch up.

This will very likely be one of the biggest if not the biggest natural disaster in US history.

Please stop with this kind of hyperbole.

We know it will be bad, but it doesn't do any good to speculate about damage right now except in the sense of trying to warn people to be safe and not venture out into this storm.

I don't think it's that hyperbolic. Likely will be one of the worst natural disasters in the US this century (to date).

Not even top 5.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is a great example of an EWRC (it happens at Aug 28 0702 UTC)



Link: https://youtu.be/z1ONNM_73-8

[Aric Dunn]

New eyewall becoming very intense on radar... looks like its beginning to deepen more..

[Exalt]

also no longer in a ERC.. its complete.. contracted from 28 to 18 in an hour...

. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)

Well it's go time..

[hd44]

New eyewall becoming very intense on radar... looks like its beginning to deepen more..

12z gfs shows this getting into the 930s...so it is possible.

[HurricaneBrain]

Can you link us to what you're looking at? Thanks.

New eyewall becoming very intense on radar... looks like its beginning to deepen more..

[NDG]

12z GFS is still persistent that it will make landfall around or shortly after midnight tonight, so it has a good 14 hrs to keep intensifying.

[txwatcher91]

also no longer in a ERC.. its complete.. contracted from 28 to 18 in an hour...

. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)

Yep, this confirms what we were seeing on radar with the inner eye merging with the outer one. Should steadily intensify until landfall.

[CryHavoc]

Poleward outflow on GOES-16 loops is about as textbook as it gets https://weather.us/satellite/texas/sate ... .html#play

Burst of convection around the eye. Could be ominous but they don't seem to hold too long with this storm.

Still, a Cat 2 at 950mb is pretty alarming. By pressure it's closer to a cat 4 than a cat 2.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS is still persistent that it will make landfall around or shortly after midnight tonight, so it has a good 14 hrs to keep intensifying.

US landfalls like the nighttime...

[Soonercane]

Please stop with this kind of hyperbole.

We know it will be bad, but it doesn't do any good to speculate about damage right now except in the sense of trying to warn people to be safe and not venture out into this storm.

I don't think it's that hyperbolic. Likely will be one of the worst natural disasters in the US this century (to date).

Not even top 5.

Agreed I lived through bob growing up in NE from a wind/surge standpoint this will be similar. I am worried this will be an Allison or Floyd from an inland flooding standpoint though

[MississippiWx]

Noticed on recon that the EWRC did its job. Radius of intense winds have expanded.

[Longhornmaniac8]

With ewrc in full swing this is likely to landfall as cat 2. I don't anticipate any more intensification . However impacts wont change much between 110 vs 120 mph.

Seeing as it's just about done and the environment is still favorable for additional strengthening, I think you'd be wrong with that prediction.

We shall see, though. As you said, it's not going to make a huge difference.

It will make more of a difference than one would think. A 120 mph wind generates about 20% more force than a 110 mph wind.

Fair enough. My comment was more toward what I perceive to be the most dangerous part of Harvey: the imminent rain/flooding. The winds will be bad and do considerable damage to be sure, but my expectation is the real loss generated by this storm will largely come from it parking itself just onshore for days and raining.

[CryHavoc]

I don't think it's that hyperbolic. Likely will be one of the worst natural disasters in the US this century (to date).

Not even top 5.

Agreed I lived through bob growing up in NE from a wind/surge standpoint this will be similar. I am worried this will be an Allison or Floyd from an inland flooding standpoint though

The flooding is certainly where the extreme damage predictions are coming from. Not too often do you see a major hurricane yank it's parking brake as it makes landfall.

[swampgator92]

Whether this Hurricane ends up as one of the worst in history depends on if it hits south or north of Corpus Christi. That's the ballgame here. Do we have a major metro with 500,000 people experience Cat3/Cat4 winds or Cat 1/2 winds? Right now it looks like a hit north of Corpus with limited wind damage at least where most of the people live. Some of the rural areas north of Corpus will get leveled by surge but very, very few people live there.

I don't think wind is going to be the story of this hurricane. It's all going to be rain and inland flooding.

[txwatcher91]

Pressure down to 947mb per latest VDM, eye has contracted to 18nm and a dropsonde measured 127kt winds at the 937mb level, just above the surface. I think it's safe to say this should be upgrade to a cat 3 now.