ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Can you link us to what you're looking at? Thanks.

New eyewall becoming very intense on radar... looks like its beginning to deepen more..

[stephen23]

I don't think it's that hyperbolic. Likely will be one of the worst natural disasters in the US this century (to date).

Not even top 5.

Agreed I lived through bob growing up in NE from a wind/surge standpoint this will be similar. I am worried this will be an Allison or Floyd from an inland flooding standpoint though

If this does as the models show and stays a hurricane as it goes into Houston this will be way on up there. Houston one of the largest cities in the country. We are looking at massive flooding in 1/4 of the entire state. This could end up being one of the most costly in this century

[NDG]

152000 2653N 09550W 6967 02899 9760 +118 +118 152109 112 090 016 00

112.

looks like a cat 3 now..

I would think that 112 knots at h70 would mean at least 105 knots at the surface since winds at h70 are usually about the same if not a little higher than at the surface.

[Ntxw]

Not even top 5.

Agreed I lived through bob growing up in NE from a wind/surge standpoint this will be similar. I am worried this will be an Allison or Floyd from an inland flooding standpoint though

If this does as the models show and stays a hurricane as it goes into Houston this will be way on up there. Houston one of the largest cities in the country. We are looking at massive flooding in 1/4 of the entire state. This could end up being one of the most costly in this century

You can bet this will be one of the costliest. Development has increased massively the past decade and each big system be it cat 1 or cat 5 has greatly increased the price tag as the years have come

[Sanibel]

Solid band in that outer core...The mayor of one of those towns in the landfall zone was on CNN and said he went through Celia and is not worried about wind but surge is his main concern...TWC said only 77mph maximum winds forecasted for Victoria...


92L has been storming us all night...Definitely forming with winds too...

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think it's that hyperbolic. Likely will be one of the worst natural disasters in the US this century (to date).

Not even top 5.

Agreed I lived through bob growing up in NE from a wind/surge standpoint this will be similar. I am worried this will be an Allison or Floyd from an inland flooding standpoint though

If this plays out like the Euro showed along with those Allison like rainfall totals then I don't see why it wouldn't be. I agree that it was premature on my part to throw out such extremes though before we've even seen how it plays out.

[hd44]

Not even top 5.

Agreed I lived through bob growing up in NE from a wind/surge standpoint this will be similar. I am worried this will be an Allison or Floyd from an inland flooding standpoint though

If this does as the models show and stays a hurricane as it goes into Houston this will be way on up there. Houston one of the largest cities in the country. We are looking at massive flooding in 1/4 of the entire state. This could end up being one of the most costly in this century

Massive flooding likely for Houston. Hurricane into Houston is not as likely because it should landfall near Corpus. Ecmwf would need to be right.

[forecasterjack]

Poleward outflow on GOES-16 loops is about as textbook as it gets https://weather.us/satellite/texas/sate ... .html#play

Burst of convection around the eye. Could be ominous but they don't seem to hold too long with this storm.

Still, a Cat 2 at 950mb is pretty alarming. By pressure it's closer to a cat 4 than a cat 2.

Winds will respond to pressure as soon as the inner core gets itself straightened out. Pressure gradient too weak with double structure. Will start really taking off soon.

[CryHavoc]

According to wunderground, Corpus Christi is forecast to get 20 inches of rain over the next 4 days.

[WYNweather]

Looking at the live cam water level almost to the dunes already. http://www.beachcamsusa.com/tx/south-pa ... orth-beach

Low is at 12:30 PM

next high is at 6:46 pm

Sat
low 1:12 am
high 6:20

[Wakeknight]

I don't think it's that hyperbolic. Likely will be one of the worst natural disasters in the US this century (to date).

Not even top 5.

Agreed I lived through bob growing up in NE from a wind/surge standpoint this will be similar. I am worried this will be an Allison or Floyd from an inland flooding standpoint though

Where in NE? I also remember Bob growing up in SE CT.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/901108454399639552

[Tireman4]

Agreed I lived through bob growing up in NE from a wind/surge standpoint this will be similar. I am worried this will be an Allison or Floyd from an inland flooding standpoint though

If this does as the models show and stays a hurricane as it goes into Houston this will be way on up there. Houston one of the largest cities in the country. We are looking at massive flooding in 1/4 of the entire state. This could end up being one of the most costly in this century

Massive flooding likely for Houston. Hurricane into Houston is not as likely because it should landfall near Corpus. Ecmwf would need to be right.

I would not be to sure of that...still a lot in play. Everything is on the table.

[MississippiWx]

According to wunderground, Corpus Christi is forecast to get 20 inches of rain over the next 4 days.

Conservative prediction, unfortunately

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251530
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1030 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

.UPDATE...
...Rainbands from Hurricane Harvey arriving onto the coast...

No major changes made on this update. Minor changes to pops and
weather. Will send updated flash flood watch.

Main impacts starting today include:

* Rain bands moving onshore -- increasing threats for gusty winds
and isolated tornadoes as these bands move over land.

* Locally heavy rainfall is likely with these bands as the showers
and thunderstorms in the bands move from east-to-west.

40

&&

[forecasterjack]

According to wunderground, Corpus Christi is forecast to get 20 inches of rain over the next 4 days.

Comparison of available guidance suggests that anywhere from 12 to 32" of rain is possible there https://weather.us/forecast/4683416-cor ... tion-total will depend on mesoscale banding etc. Someone will get 40"+ out of this. Just too much water involved. ECMWF PWAT's >3" for the same places for days... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 0600z.html

[Blown Away]

Eye filling in on IR.

[MrStormX]

The Saffir-Simpson Scale is certainly a good indicator of strength, but it has pronounced limits. A massive category 1 or 2 hurricane might have storm surge that exceeds what is expected of its rating, this was especially noticeable with Ike when it was approaching Texas and Sandy when it began its extra-tropical transition. Likewise, a tropical storm can cause more flooding and damage than a hurricane under certain circumstances, like Allison and Erika...this is not taken into consideration in the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This discrepancy between the SSHS and real world realities is one of the reasons as to why we have seen the NHC gradually add new warning packages and impact models over the past few years.

When it comes to Harvey, from a weather enthusiast perspective, it might be exciting for it to become a Category 3 but at the end of the day the main impact of heavy flooding rain is still going to be a massive problem irregardless of rating. I hope that residents are paying attention to their local emergency management officials, because from what the experts are saying, this is likely going to be a record breaking rain event.

[stephen23]

Something else to keep in mind is Texas has had an above average year of rainfall totals. The lakes are full. The rivers are full. We are forecasted to get atleast 2" up here in the DFW area. Lakes will be releasing water and all this water will be headed south as well. Austin forested to get 10" of rain. I used to be a NFIP flood adjuster. I have seen Austin flood on 4" of rain. Entire neighborhoods under water. This water will also being released to head south. The water damage from this storm could be very wide spread across this state. We just can't take that much water after an above average rainfall summer.

[mpic]

Haven't read back this morning, so this could be a repeat. Houston news is saying there is a possibility of it going back into the Gulf and coming into Houston. Any truth to that?