ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

if this does not gain latitude quickly, Antigua comes into play, along with Guadeloupe

[Aric Dunn]

if this does not gain latitude quickly, Antigua comes into play, along with Guadeloupe

yes.. even more wobbles wsw the last couple hours.. no good..

[Blinhart]

surprised everyone is sleeping

Everyone is getting enough sleep because they know they have to do some prep in the next couple days and then no sleep for the rest of the week.

[lando]

tampa would be in a lot of trouble here... most flood prone city in a hurricane zone in the US

[bevgo]

Grandson is 13 and is codygo here. He is very mature. He was almost 1 and survived Katrina. His mom did not believe she was going to hit and wouldn't let me take him out. So he is a storm veteran. Lol. Great suggestions. Keep them coming. He will need to decide.

[Blinhart]

tampa would be in a lot of trouble here... most flood prone city in a hurricane zone in the US

I think New Orleans would disagree with that completely. And Louisiana is the most proned to storm surge, when it is probably the flattest state in the country. I live about 30 miles as the crow flies from the coast of the GoM and only like 15 feet above sea level. I looked at the storm surge probability map and where I live if I was suppose to have Cat 5 storm surge at my house it would have over 6 feet of water in it and a town that is just 4 miles West of me would be under 9 feet of water.

[lando]

in my opinion i think nhc adjusts track south but not inland over cuba yet, but very close to coast @0500

[lando]

tampa would be in a lot of trouble here... most flood prone city in a hurricane zone in the US

I think New Orleans would disagree with that completely. And Louisiana is the most proned to storm surge, when it is probably the flattest state in the country. I live about 30 miles as the crow flies from the coast of the GoM and only like 15 feet above sea level. I looked at the storm surge probability map and where I live if I was suppose to have Cat 5 storm surge at my house it would have over 6 feet of water in it and a town that is just 4 miles West of me would be under 9 feet of water.

i can understand where your coming from. here are two great reads TBO just put out

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hu ... as/2335738

http://www.tbo.com/news/weather/hurrica ... ed/2335846

when i made that statement i was referring to a comment from the top article

[Cyclenall]

The northern eye wall does appear to have some weakness but wow, overall Irma is getting its act together.

So this image is from tropicwatch.info I take it, I like the colour scheme used...neat.

[Blinhart]

tampa would be in a lot of trouble here... most flood prone city in a hurricane zone in the US

I think New Orleans would disagree with that completely. And Louisiana is the most proned to storm surge, when it is probably the flattest state in the country. I live about 30 miles as the crow flies from the coast of the GoM and only like 15 feet above sea level. I looked at the storm surge probability map and where I live if I was suppose to have Cat 5 storm surge at my house it would have over 6 feet of water in it and a town that is just 4 miles West of me would be under 9 feet of water.

i can understand where your coming from. here are two great reads TBO just put out

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hu ... as/2335738

http://www.tbo.com/news/weather/hurrica ... ed/2335846

when i made that statement i was referring to a comment from the top article

Yeah according to a person from Massachusetts that works for insurance companies wrote that, but that is for value purposes only, the areas that would be devastated New Orleans would be a lot worse than Tampa. So for flood prone it would be New Orleans first, it is the way you word things. Cost wise maybe Tampa would be above New Orleans, but since 2015 I'm sure Miami might be even more expensive than Tampa.

[bevgo]

Already to go lol. I live ON the GOM. I have maybe half a mile to water. Small section of trees, marsh and water. Not sure how much water the house got for Katrina. Flood insurance only paid $20,000. That was in the history. I am unable to board Windows as there's no way to secure them. Also in have no help and am disabled. I will need to get my antique victrola out because sold it to my son last week b I cannot allow it to be destroyed. I will head to meet Mississippi bro Omaha Nebraska family both places. The boys and I will have a road trip!

[mrbagyo]

IRMA is still moving westward and its eye has warmed considerably during the last few hours.

[AutoPenalti]

IRMA is still moving westward and its eye has warmed considerably during the last few hours.

Looks like another EWRC may be ready to go underway?

[bob rulz]

I'm going to guess 155-160mph by 5am at this rate. Unbelievable presentation. First morning visibles will be breathtaking.

[CryHavoc]

IRMA is still moving westward and its eye has warmed considerably during the last few hours.

So cool to see the bright red swaths pinwheeling around the COC as they grow larger.

Irma continues to look stronger and more menacing. There's a strong argument to be made for looking at the overall structure of the hurricane as an idea of intensity rather than just the barometric low point. Although clearly that becomes a more nuanced science for those just trying to know if they should get out of Dodge.

Irma is definitely getting into ominous territory right now with how much stronger the convection outside of the eyewall is looking. Taking the classic shape of legendary 'canes of the past. I've been lukewarm on her presentation to this point but she really does look to be on the verge of taking that next step.

[AJC3]

We're getting 60-second G-16 imagery over Irma right now. My jaw just hit the floor...

[EquusStorm]

After her divorce and remarriage, my mother moved to an apartment in Foley, AL, about 15-20 minutes with no traffic to the AL gulf coast. Some of the westernmost tracks on the ensembles have been quite interesting. She is far enough inland to not worry about the storm surge, but winds would definitely be destructive given the likely intensity... not to mention flooded roads. Would be a long time before she gets back to condo maintenance at Fort Morgan, at the very least.

But I can't exactly wish it east into Florida either... it's going to be a nightmare for someone no matter which track is correct at this point. For now I just hope it jumps north of the islands.

[otowntiger]

IRMA is still moving westward and its eye has warmed considerably during the last few hours.

Looks like another EWRC may be ready to go underway?

Sure...why not?

[Cyclenall]

We're getting 60-second G-16 imagery over Irma right now. My jaw just hit the floor...

As opposed to not getting it sometimes? Can't wait to see that.

I checked Hurricane Donna's track and realized that if Irma becomes a CAT5 in the next 6 hours she'll do so in nearly the exact same spot as Donna did 57 years ago...TO THIS DAY.

[bob rulz]

Donna never became a Cat 5 hurricane? The tracks I see show it as a Cat 3 in this area of the basin.