ATL: IRMA - Models

[Blown Away]

The TVCN consensus model the NHC likes to stay close to is almost on top of the NHC forecast track though. Does that mean very little change will be made at the 11pm update?
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Not seeing any reason the NHC would make any significant track changes, maybe adjust a bit to the S & W at days 4/5...

[got ants?]

Can someone post the current predicted path, in regards to (and showing) the nebert box?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/904169806408056832

[AdamFirst]

Looking out for our friends in the Antilles...Gustywind, msbee and others...I believe we have members in the Turks and Caicos as well. Hoping that their situations won't be as dire as some of the models are predicting.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can someone post the current predicted path, in regards to (and showing) the nebert box?

This map includes the 11pm NHC track update. Its the red line


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[quaqualita]

Looking out for our friends in the Antilles...Gustywind, msbee and others...I believe we have members in the Turks and Caicos as well. Hoping that their situations won't be as dire as some of the models are predicting.

Thank you! Keeping a close eye on Irma, I'm located at the North Coast of the Dominican Republic. Love this forum!

[ConvergenceZone]

Curious as to what the upcoming GFS model shows, and of course the late night Euro

[otowntiger]

Can someone post the current predicted path, in regards to (and showing) the nebert box?

This map includes the 11pm NHC track update. Its the red line


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

All this talk of the south and west shifts- I don't see it. I feel like I must have missed an interim where the models were much more east than they are now? The GFS and European have not shifted much that I can see. I guess I need to have it pointed out to me.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All this talk of the south and west shifts- I don't see it. I feel like I must have missed an interim where the models were much more east than they are now? The GFS and European have not shifted much that I can see. I guess I need to have it pointed out to me.

GFS and others went for an OTS recurve not to long ago, then shifted to New York/New England. ECMWF went from Key West to OTS but it's uncertain for them, yet for the most part models have shifted SW.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Can someone post the current predicted path, in regards to (and showing) the nebert box?

This map includes the 11pm NHC track update. Its the red line


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

All this talk of the south and west shifts- I don't see it. I feel like I must have missed an interim where the models were much more east than they are now? The GFS and European have not shifted much that I can see. I guess I need to have it pointed out to me.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=11 Press play on the bottom and that'll help you see it. Things were looking like Nova Scotia for a bit until today.

[Steve]

The grey lines, i.e..the GFS ensembles have been shifting south every run since 00Z today. I was comparing the 00Z to the 18Z. Even less than 120 hours, big difference.

Yep. All of the ensembles are to the right (or west) of the 18z operational run.

Note the trends, folks...

The other right?

[Ken711]

Curious as to what the upcoming GFS model shows, and of course the late night Euro

I have a feeling a shift West on both.

[AxaltaRacing24]

All this talk of the south and west shifts- I don't see it. I feel like I must have missed an interim where the models were much more east than they are now? The GFS and European have not shifted much that I can see. I guess I need to have it pointed out to me.

GFS and others went for an OTS recurve not to long ago, then shifted to New York/New England. ECMWF went from Key West to OTS but it's uncertain for them, yet for the most part models have shifted SW.

That OTS scenario was a special occasion lol. If that run played out then the recurve would be a miracle. Talk about threading needles.

[Langinbang187]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/904169806408056832

A storm I'll never forget. Literally destroyed my entire town up in Canada. Dropped an insane amount of rain in a short period of time.

[Steve]

NAM High Resolution to 60 hours shows that trough coming down from Canada. It looks massive. I still think it will be the high that follows it and the relative speed of Irma as to what happens. But here comes the trough into the North Central US

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

[BobHarlem]

This map includes the 11pm NHC track update. Its the red line


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

All this talk of the south and west shifts- I don't see it. I feel like I must have missed an interim where the models were much more east than they are now? The GFS and European have not shifted much that I can see. I guess I need to have it pointed out to me.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=11 Press play on the bottom and that'll help you see it. Things were looking like Nova Scotia for a bit until today.

A good way to see that on those types of animations is to set it to Swing mode (from loop) then hit play a few times toward the end of the animation (it because super obvious if you let it swing back and forth toward the end)

[Steve]

NAM is throwing in some complications:

32km - Trough comes down but is way more narrow than the 3km high res satellite depiction. I think what it might be is that piece of energy that becomes the cutoff low later on. Major front across the Eastern US between the Atlantic High and trough coming down. A surface low forms in West Virginia and moves up the front. 1009mb low is spinning in the BoC.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

NAM 12km is similar through 3.5 days.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[BobHarlem]

Trend over time from http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=11

Hebert Box is the darker dashed square around the Northeast Caribbean islands.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS is running

[AxaltaRacing24]