ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Any chance it weakens to Cat 1 before it makes landfall? I'm not sure whether there's anything around that area to really slow it down, though; what do the ocean temperatures look like?

IR looking pretty ragged on the approach...

[Aric Dunn]

looks like we are finally going to have a proper eye on satellite soon.

[CryHavoc]

Any chance it weakens to Cat 1 before it makes landfall? I'm not sure whether there's anything around that area to really slow it down, though; what do the ocean temperatures look like?

Probably not, but if it comes ashore very slowly the land might start to cause the NW quadrant to erode a bit.

However, usually hurricanes don't lose significant strength until the outer eyewall or eye itself is over land.

[Blown Away]

Looks like WNW wobble...

[MaineWeatherNut]

Recon is no longer finding Concentric Eyewalls. Looks like the Eyewall replacement cycle was a quick one and he's ready to rock again as evident on Sat. images. It's scary times ahead for those along the Texas Gulf Coast!

[RL3AO]

With storms like these, it's perhaps best to break them into hazards. I'd put Harvey in these groups.

Wind: Cat 2/3
Surge: Cat 3
Rain: Cat 5+

[txwatcher91]

Any chance it weakens to Cat 1 before it makes landfall? I'm not sure whether there's anything around that area to really slow it down, though; what do the ocean temperatures look like?

IR looking pretty ragged on the approach...

Considering the time of day and that it is finishing up from an EWRC it looks quite healthy. Will be interesting to see what recon finds on first pass back in.

[vbhoutex]

This is chaser Josh Morgerman, I say Never underestimate mother nature.

@iCyclone
Can't believe I was joking about #HARVEY's funeral a week ago. This one came back and bit me in the ass big time. Holy crap.

I know Josh semi-personally, and he loves his Texas hurricanes. I know he's sad about all the damage but he's been through Haiyan at peak intensity, I'm sure he'll find a way to ride this one out as well.

Josh is a personal friend of mine. Feel free to bring his posts into S2K. He knows his business and does not hype.

[BYG Jacob]

Recon is no longer finding Concentric Eyewalls. Looks like the Eyewall replacement cycle was a quick one and he's ready to rock again as evident on Sat. images. It's scary times ahead for those along the Texas Gulf Coast!

That was really fast. He has plenty of time to strengthen now.

[mpic]

HRRR is showing a quick turn to the north about 3 hrs before landfall.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

SREF shows the turn a little bit earlier.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php

Not surprised at all. Several counties around Matagorda/Victoria are evacuating

[CrazyC83]

I'm hearing (streaming KRIS TV 6) that people are still on the beach and out thrill seeking in mandatory evacuation areas. Ridiculous!

[Aric Dunn]

IR improving greatly the last hours becoming symmetric and a larger eye clearing out. radar showing a contracting eyewall and increasing intensity.. recon may very well find 120.

[Blinhart]

All they are talking about is Surge damage, they aren't talking about the real damage will be from the waves on top of that Surge. If this storm actually does have waves almost 40 feet tall you talking damage 4 stories higher above the surge.

[Kazmit]

Any chance it weakens to Cat 1 before it makes landfall? I'm not sure whether there's anything around that area to really slow it down, though; what do the ocean temperatures look like?

No, very unlikely. It's just finishing an EWRC now, and should continue strengthening afterwards.

[CryHavoc]

This is chaser Josh Morgerman, I say Never underestimate mother nature.

@iCyclone
Can't believe I was joking about #HARVEY's funeral a week ago. This one came back and bit me in the ass big time. Holy crap.

I know Josh semi-personally, and he loves his Texas hurricanes. I know he's sad about all the damage but he's been through Haiyan at peak intensity, I'm sure he'll find a way to ride this one out as well.

Josh is a personal friend of mine. Feel free to bring his posts into S2K. He knows his business and does not hype.

Yep. Good dude for sure. I remember him making Facebook posts about how he was going down to chase this in spite of feeling like it wouldn't be much more than a TD.

[tolakram]

60 frame 1 min loop, if you can load it.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=813.5&y=865.5&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yeah it clearing out a big eye now. Will it make it to cat 3? It will be interesting to see if it does. Regardless, as others have pointed out, the impacts will be devastating for anyone in its path. I pray for the safety of all those this storm affects.

[BYG Jacob]

Terrifying thought nobody has mentioned, there's a nuclear power plant in the projected track.

[tolakram]

16:31z

[psyclone]

Harvey looks like a steady state major hurricane (115-120mph cat 3). it certainly doesn't look ragged. IR cloud tops typically warm some during peak insolation. it's a mistake to confuse that with weakening. it isn't...at least not right now.