ATL: IRMA - Models

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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3621 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:39 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
otowntiger wrote:All this talk of the south and west shifts- I don't see it. I feel like I must have missed an interim where the models were much more east than they are now? The GFS and European have not shifted much that I can see. I guess I need to have it pointed out to me.

GFS and others went for an OTS recurve not to long ago, then shifted to New York/New England. ECMWF went from Key West to OTS but it's uncertain for them, yet for the most part models have shifted SW.
. Thanks! That helps me now see what everyone is talking about.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3622 Postby tgenius » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:39 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image

Appears further south and west a hair from the 18z run right?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3623 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:39 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3624 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:40 pm

tgenius wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image

Appears further south and west a hair from the 18z run right?

Nah. The exact same so far.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3625 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:45 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3626 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:48 pm

Im omly on my phone.. but it appears south and slower..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3627 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:49 pm

Here come the south shifts
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3628 Postby AubreyStorm » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Im omly on my phone.. but it appears south and slower..


WOW! Not good!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3629 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:49 pm

If it landfalls on the US East Coast, that will be 6 straight runs. Sometimes I hate me some GFS, but sometimes you have to consider it. I don't know. It's had some scary runs so far and affects millions and millions of people. This is kind of an exciting run. Even though you know you can't trust the GFS at 8 days, maybe just maybe...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3630 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:50 pm

Just to compare the trough with the 00z, it was roaring @90 plus hrs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3631 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Im omly on my phone.. but it appears south and slower..


It is actually a touch faster and a noticeable shift SW. The ridge appears stronger
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3632 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:51 pm

A bit slower(?) and a bit more SW @78hrs, threat to Puerto Rico increasing I feel.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3633 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:51 pm

South
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3634 Postby NJWxHurricane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:52 pm

:flag:
Aric Dunn wrote:Im omly on my phone.. but it appears south and slower..

out to hr 78 looks faster to me
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3635 Postby brghteys1216 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:52 pm

GFS may have a surprise in store for us.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3636 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:54 pm

woah.. :eek: Luis
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3637 Postby NJWxHurricane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:54 pm

brghteys1216 wrote:GFS may have a surprise in store for us.

For who
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3638 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:54 pm

Quite the trend
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3639 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:54 pm

GFS looking a lot like HWRF
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3640 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:54 pm

NJWxHurricane wrote:
brghteys1216 wrote:GFS may have a surprise in store for us.

For who

Islands
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