ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3641 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:55 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Quite the trend
Image

Trough is lifting out and ridge seems to strengthen.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3642 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:56 pm

Too close for comfort for PR
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3643 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:56 pm

Thru 96, the ridge is perceptibly stronger and trough is digging less
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3644 Postby NJWxHurricane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:56 pm

trough is digging good
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3645 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:58 pm

NJWxHurricane wrote:trough is digging good

Not as a deep as this afternoon.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3646 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:00 pm

More ridging
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3647 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:00 pm

Its another westward trend here thus far not good for PR
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3648 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:00 pm

If I was in SFL or even the Gulf, I would not stop watching this. NOWHERE is out of the question yet.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3649 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:00 pm

FWIW Irma is yet again a step to the SW of previous GFS run
Last edited by toad strangler on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3650 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:00 pm

I think it was Aric that said we would start seeing the models shift southwest once Irma started here southwest movement
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3651 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:02 pm

uh oh
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3652 Postby Langinbang187 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:03 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:If I was in SFL or even the Gulf, I would not stop watching this. NOWHERE is out of the question yet.


Gulf is a bit of a reach but yea SFL should still keep an eye out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3653 Postby tgenius » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:03 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:uh oh
Image

That's a ginormous uh oh :/
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3654 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:03 pm

Oh s%^&
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3655 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:04 pm

Decent shift SW form this afternoon.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3656 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:04 pm

Big Shifts South

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3657 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:04 pm

so far the 00z GFS looks very alike to 12z EC :wink:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3658 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:I think it was Aric that said we would start seeing the models shift southwest once Irma started here southwest movement

And in the same way couldn't the opposite hold true when it begins to gain latitude again?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3659 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 pm

The Cyclonic PVU [tm] shows you exactly what the GFS does with the trough. It's not far enough out yet, but if you stop it where it currently ends at 114 hours, you will see the trough lifting and a major front along the entire US East coast with feeder moisture all the way back to the SW Gulf.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3660 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 pm

Significant SW shift ar 120hr.

I guess everything after this point will fall into the higher uncertainty period
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