ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Turn towards the NW

[NJWxHurricane]

gotta see if this continues tommorow
night

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the model trends one could expect anything from Bonnie 1998 to Donna 1960 so who really knows at this point but we'll know more by maybe Monday

[Bocadude85]

I think it was Aric that said we would start seeing the models shift southwest once Irma started here southwest movement

And in the same way couldn't the opposite hold true when it begins to gain latitude again?

Of course, but the farther west she gets the harder it will be to miss the east coast.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[SouthFLTropics]

I'll go out on a limb and say SC/NC border this time.

[BobHarlem]

About 150nmi shift ssw from the 18z run at 132 hours out.

[SFLcane]

Thats what i call a Rather significant shift lets hope it stops.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Significantly SW...pressure is more realistic.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

so far the 00z GFS looks very alike to 12z EC

The ridge appears stronger and to influence the system more, since the trough (though stronger) penetrates less

[northjaxpro]

: it would not take much more movement to the southwest for Irma to get closer to the northern coast of Hispaniola in that frame above.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Could it go OTS?

[Aric Dunn]

I think it was Aric that said we would start seeing the models shift southwest once Irma started here southwest movement

And in the same way couldn't the opposite hold true when it begins to gain latitude again?

No not exactly. Its the extent of the sw motion that will ultimately determine the trough timing.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'd not be surprise to see potential runs shifting to a track similar to Donna 1960

[Steve]

Looks like it will feel the influence of the trough but miss it in this run. That probably means landfall because of the block behind it. Maybe it's faster and gets out, but I don't think that's the way it's going to go on this run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Aric Dunn]

gotta see if this continues tommorow
night

Yes we still have a couple days of watching.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[SouthFLTropics]

I know it came up a lot last year during Matthew...Watch for the thumb ridge. That could come into play at some point.

[SouthFLTropics]

It's crawling through the Bahamas. Not near as quick as earlier in the run.

[AxaltaRacing24]