ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

I'll predict that they'll find 146 knt flight level winds, 134 knt smrf and 928mb pressure on the first northeast pass.

Before the 11am est update we'll find evidence that this is a cat5.

Looks like that even that high estimate was too low

Those two passes came right in time for the 8am intermediate adv.

[mrbagyo]

We have a cat 5. NOAA P3 just measured 152 kt SFMR and 167 kt FL in north eyewall. I'm at a loss for words. My heart is breaking for the islands.

Thats a terrible news, the islands in the path would likely see this kind of damage - Pam @ Vanuatu

[eastcoastFL]

WPB NWS forecast calling for possible tropical storm conditions Friday evening and hurricane conditions possible on Saturday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... a6HSmCWyUk

Interesting how early they are with the possible conditions. Like full 24 hrs.

Same forecast here in Martin county

Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 73. Windy, with an east northeast wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east northeast wind 35 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 76. Windy, with an east wind around 40 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 85. Windy, with a west southwest wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[SouthDadeFish]

Air Force just measured 158-kt flight-level and 154-kt SFMR in NE eyewall. This is well above threshold for cat 5. Horrible.

[bevgo]

Mississippi. Do you think we have much to be concerned about here in Mississippi? I have a bad feeling. I have had horrible luck the past 3 weeks. I will be outta here as soon as I think we. Could be hit .

[Evil Jeremy]

Not surprised she's a Cat 5 this morning, thought it was likely last night. Hopefully another EWRC gets going soon, and keeps Irma in check as she approaches the Caribbean. Hopefully all our members in the Antilles and PR are ready for a worst-case scenario.

[GCANE]

THE DEADLY PINK DONUT

This is about the strongest presentation I have ever seen.

[WeatherGuesser]

Can we expect a special Update?

Kinda wish NHC was a bit more 'real time' oriented.

[Evenstar]

First visible:

Good Morning, beautiful...

She really is gorgeous.

[SouthDadeFish]

NOAA says 171 kt max-flight level on VDM.... Considering Air Force SFMR of 154 kt, this is probably a 155 kt hurricane. Incredible.

000
URNT12 KWBC 051129
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 05/11:10:54Z
B. 16 deg 42 min N
057 deg 41 min W
C. NA
D. 110 kt
E. 188 deg 12 nm
F. 297 deg 120 kt
G. 189 deg 17 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 14 C / 2453 m
J. 21 C / 2412 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0711A IRMA OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 171 KT 024 / 19 NM 11:16:47Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 012 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 265 / 10 KTS

[tropicwatch]

AF just went through pressure still dropping.

[Evil Jeremy]

Can we expect a special Update?

Kinda wish NHC was a bit more 'real time' oriented.

Well we have a scheduled intermediate advisory in 20 minutes.

[MississippiWx]

Mississippi. Do you think we have much to be concerned about here in Mississippi? I have a bad feeling. I have had horrible luck the past 3 weeks. I will be outta here as soon as I think we. Could be hit .

Until west trends stop occurring in the models, it's difficult to say it can't happen. The probability isn't high, but the odds of it reaching the Gulf have gone up quite a bit the past couple of days. Need to keep an eye on it for sure.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I actually think the computer models might not have been so wrong about the intense low pressures they've been showing. I doubt it gets as low as some of them, but it sure might be close.

[GCANE]

[Evil Jeremy]

I wouldn't be surprised if we get a special advisory in place of the 8am intermediate, if the NHC truly wants to upgrade Irma to a Cat 5 with over 175mph winds...

[ftolmsteen]

Last frame Irma wobbled wnw. Perhaps the beginning of the turn to wnw?

[Kingarabian]

175 mph winds... incredible

I just ask for everyone residing in Texas to the SE states to prepare to the fullest extent.

In the meanwhile, thoughts go out to our friends in the lesser Antilles. God speed.

[tolakram]

Posting again, simply incredible.

My best wishes for those int he islands, hopefully Irma goes north of track and spares you all the worst of the storm.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=863&y=1043&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Ntxw]

Those wind numbers makes Irma the strongest Cyclone in 2017 on earth