ATL: JOSE - Models

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#381 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:09 pm

GFS turning wnw into NC.. hmm

was only a matter of time once JOSE started really dropping SE to sse things would changed ...figured it would take a couple runs..
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#382 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm

Big shift east on UK


HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2017 0 27.0N 66.8W 977 61
1200UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.2N 66.3W 976 64
0000UTC 14.09.2017 24 25.3N 66.3W 965 71
1200UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.9N 67.2W 960 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 48 25.0N 68.6W 962 82
1200UTC 15.09.2017 60 25.6N 70.5W 960 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 72 26.2N 72.5W 959 76
1200UTC 16.09.2017 84 26.6N 74.0W 952 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 96 27.2N 74.8W 942 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#383 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:GFS turning wnw into NC.. hmm

was only a matter of time once JOSE started really dropping SE to sse things would changed ...figured it would take a couple runs..

And there may be more SW adjustments
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#384 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:13 pm

I think we really need some G-IV missions to better sample the environment. Some additional balloon launches would help too.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#385 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:13 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Big shift east on UK


HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2017 0 27.0N 66.8W 977 61
1200UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.2N 66.3W 976 64
0000UTC 14.09.2017 24 25.3N 66.3W 965 71
1200UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.9N 67.2W 960 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 48 25.0N 68.6W 962 82
1200UTC 15.09.2017 60 25.6N 70.5W 960 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 72 26.2N 72.5W 959 76
1200UTC 16.09.2017 84 26.6N 74.0W 952 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 96 27.2N 74.8W 942 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87


that would be a big shift lol..

well now...
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#386 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I think we really need some G-IV missions to better sample the environment. Some additional balloon launches would help too.

yes that would be nice. or at least.. recon lol

UKMET is still inside its 12z members by the way..

need more time... we will know in 36hrs or less.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#387 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Big shift east on UK


HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2017 0 27.0N 66.8W 977 61
1200UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.2N 66.3W 976 64
0000UTC 14.09.2017 24 25.3N 66.3W 965 71
1200UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.9N 67.2W 960 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 48 25.0N 68.6W 962 82
1200UTC 15.09.2017 60 25.6N 70.5W 960 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 72 26.2N 72.5W 959 76
1200UTC 16.09.2017 84 26.6N 74.0W 952 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 96 27.2N 74.8W 942 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87


that would be a big shift lol..

well now...


Big shift on the GFS though. Very similar to the 0z UK at 144. May even make landfall.

0z CMC stalls just south of New England.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#388 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:19 pm

uk caves

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2017 0 27.0N 66.8W 977 61
1200UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.2N 66.3W 976 64
0000UTC 14.09.2017 24 25.3N 66.3W 965 71
1200UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.9N 67.2W 960 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 48 25.0N 68.6W 962 82
1200UTC 15.09.2017 60 25.6N 70.5W 960 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 72 26.2N 72.5W 959 76
1200UTC 16.09.2017 84 26.6N 74.0W 952 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 96 27.2N 74.8W 942 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#389 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:23 pm

Alyono wrote:uk caves

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2017 0 27.0N 66.8W 977 61
1200UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.2N 66.3W 976 64
0000UTC 14.09.2017 24 25.3N 66.3W 965 71
1200UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.9N 67.2W 960 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 48 25.0N 68.6W 962 82
1200UTC 15.09.2017 60 25.6N 70.5W 960 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 72 26.2N 72.5W 959 76
1200UTC 16.09.2017 84 26.6N 74.0W 952 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 96 27.2N 74.8W 942 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87


still the western edge...

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#390 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:24 pm

Alyono wrote:uk caves

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2017 0 27.0N 66.8W 977 61
1200UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.2N 66.3W 976 64
0000UTC 14.09.2017 24 25.3N 66.3W 965 71
1200UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.9N 67.2W 960 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 48 25.0N 68.6W 962 82
1200UTC 15.09.2017 60 25.6N 70.5W 960 79
0000UTC 16.09.2017 72 26.2N 72.5W 959 76
1200UTC 16.09.2017 84 26.6N 74.0W 952 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 96 27.2N 74.8W 942 85
1200UTC 17.09.2017 108 28.0N 75.2W 929 87
0000UTC 18.09.2017 120 28.9N 75.2W 927 89
1200UTC 18.09.2017 132 30.1N 75.5W 921 90
0000UTC 19.09.2017 144 31.1N 75.4W 919 87


Let’s see what the Euro shows. If it shifts west then we can call it a compromise between two good friends :D
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#391 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:24 pm

I think the remnants of what would be Max or Norma would play a big role in whether it can turn to land or stays at sea.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#392 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:34 pm

GFS turns back towards the OBX at day 9

what an odd track
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#393 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:36 pm

Brent wrote:GFS turns back towards the OBX at day 9

what an odd track


cmc was similar..

but thing to take from the trends and current synoptics is that jose is faster and going to farther south .. that changes things.. we dont know how it will play out yet..
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#394 Postby aperson » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:59 pm

18z gfs ensembles had 3 members find a similar track with a landfall around NC through VA. One had a similar stall as well. Will be interesting to see what sort of bifurcations show up in ensemble runs this time

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#395 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:20 am

Well that was interesting...

UKMET went from 6 Florida landfalls in a row to nothing.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#396 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:26 am

00z gfs ensembles still show a split with most out to sea and a few striking near SC/VA. Main difference seems to be speed of completing the loop.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#397 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:10 am

euro still jack knifing... going to hold my breath until i see such a track start..
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#398 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:35 am

Image


Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#399 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:40 am

ECMWF 00z t=144, the ridge progresses further and closes the door this time. No chance of steering it further east

Image

Edit: Looks like Euro is going to stall it between two ridges. Not dissimilar from the GFS 00z operational.
Last edited by aperson on Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#400 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:41 am

Euro OTS through 144 and then from North of Bermuda begins to slingshot NW towards New England at 168 :double:

Then pretty much just stalls between Bermuda and the NE

Moving towards NJ/DE/MD at 240
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