ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Am I reading this correctly? 30kts shear over pushing past Houston?

Shear maps are incredibly misleading with strong hurricanes. They modify the environment so much.

In what way do hurricanes modify their environment? I was always under the impression they're sort of just embedded in the background flow.

[Dave C]

183500 2710N 09620W 6970 02662 9424 +176 +111 186021 026 038 000 00
183530 2710N 09622W 6969 02661 9420 +173 +129 200011 017 028 000 00
183600 2710N 09624W 6967 02658 9425 +166 +147 335007 012 024 000 00
183630
942found in last drop by usaf

Also with 20-30 knots wind so maybe lower.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Here are a few tips to riding out the storm and the aftermath if you are stuck in the hot zone.

• First of all, listen to guidance issued by the NHC, NWS, and local and state authorities, as well as emergency response departments. A wind-up WX radio is a great item to have in a disaster.
• If your power goes out, and it most likely will, DO NOT use candles if you can avoid it. Using flashlights, electric lanterns, or sitting in the dark is a much preferable option to accidentally starting a fire.
• If you have pets, keep them in a cage or carrier, so you can keep track of them.
• After the storm has passed, DO NOT venture outside more than needed. AVOID debris, flooded areas, and power lines, even if you think they are dead. They might not be.
• Be wary of displaced animals such as snakes, that might swim in the floodwaters. I don't know about anyone else here, but I highly dislike snakes.

[galaxy401]

120 mph!

...2 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph
(195 km/h) with higher gusts. Harvey is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The latest minimum central
pressure reported by the aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

A wind gust to 57 mph (91 km/h) was recently observed at the Naval
Air Station in Corpus Christi. A coastal observing site near Port
Aransas has measured a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

A sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a wind gust to 69 mph
(111 km/h) were recently reported by NOAA buoy 42020, located about
40 miles off the coast of Texas.

NOAA tide gauges near Corpus Christi and Port Aransas indicate
storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 ft is already occurring.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[weathaguyry]

Officially 120mph from the NHC!

[artist]

I'll be curious to see usaf's vortex msg.

[OntarioEggplant]

Am I reading this correctly? 30kts shear over pushing past Houston?

Shear maps are incredibly misleading with strong hurricanes. They modify the environment so much.

In what way do hurricanes modify their environment? I was always under the impression they're sort of just embedded in the background flow.

It's literally the outflow from Harvey. It shows up as shear on those maps

[MrStormX]

NHC made it official.

[RL3AO]

In what way do hurricanes modify their environment? I was always under the impression they're sort of just embedded in the background flow.

The reason the map shows wind shear near Houston is because the hurricane is causing cyclonic winds near the surface and anti-cyclonic winds in the upper levels. These winds are opposite in direction so the shear map shows "high shear". But, the shear is only a by-product of the organization of the hurricane and is in no way impacting the storm.

[Airboy]

Must be a lof of water being pumped into places like San Antonio Bay when it moves onshore.

[txwatcher91]

Big donut eye will clear out soon as the old eye continues to weaken.

[artist]

Here are a few tips to riding out the storm and the aftermath if you are stuck in the hot zone.

• First of all, listen to guidance issued by the NHC, NWS, and local and state authorities, as well as emergency response departments. A wind-up WX radio is a great item to have in a disaster.
• If your power goes out, and it most likely will, DO NOT use candles if you can avoid it. Using flashlights, electric lanterns, or sitting in the dark is a much preferable option to accidentally starting a fire.
• If you have pets, keep them in a cage or carrier, so you can keep track of them.
• After the storm has passed, DO NOT venture outside more than needed. AVOID debris, flooded areas, and power lines, even if you think they are dead. They might not be.
• Be wary of displaced animals such as snakes, that might swim in the floodwaters. I don't know about anyone else here, but I highly dislike snakes.

And if the ground is saturated DO NOT stand under any trees.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the 12 year streak is ending tonight/tomorrow AM... really hope everyone in Corpus Christi's prepared.

[Hurricane Andrew]

My UNOFFICIAL wind and pressure forecast. See disclaimer below.

18z AUG25 / 0 HRS / 120mph / 943mb
00z AUG26 / 6 HRS / 125mph / 940mb
06z AUG26 / 12 HRS / 130mph / 936mb
[LANDFALL - 07z - Near Rockport, TX 130mph/937mb]
12z AUG 26 / 18 HRS / 110mph / 945mb
18z AUG 26 / 24 HRS / 85mph / 950mb

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Kingarabian]

Can someone post the satellite link that updates by the minute? Thanks.

[Cunxi Huang]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

105 kt.

[sponger]

Looks like the 12 year streak is ending tonight/tomorrow AM... really hope everyone in Corpus Christi's prepared.

It was a good long run!

[Cunxi Huang]

Can someone post the satellite link that updates by the minute? Thanks.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=55

[PaulR]

All they are talking about is Surge damage, they aren't talking about the real damage will be from the waves on top of that Surge. If this storm actually does have waves almost 40 feet tall you talking damage 4 stories higher above the surge.

Hi, All,

It's been a while since I've posted; I usually come here when a relative is in the area of a serious storm, or, a storm piques my interest for whatever reason. Even then I often do not post, as often I have little to add, unless I have a question.

In this case:

I may be wrong about this, but would not the wave height be from trough to crest (peak), with the "crest height" being the height above the "still water line" (which in this case the STL would be the surge level/height?)?

OTOH, if the waves in the open ocean are 40' from crest to trough, what kind of breakers can that generate?

Depends on the bottom. Texas shallow coast will eat up a lot of wave energy but 20 foot breakers are still possible at the coast.

Ah, thanks - that is the sort of information I was wondering about...

Incidentally, I notice that I typo'd -- I meant "SWL" (for "Still Water Line").

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 251854
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092017
A. 25/18:35:50Z
B. 27 deg 10 min N
096 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2618 m
D. 98 kt
E. 075 deg 12 nm
F. 153 deg 117 kt
G. 071 deg 14 nm
H. 944 mb
I. 13 C / 3046 m
J. 18 C / 3044 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO8-16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 1909A HARVEY OB 03
MAX FL WIND 117 KT 074 / 15 NM 18:30:30Z
CNTR DROPSO