ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

Well, as opposed to the last update, they suspect she might lose some steam gradually from now on out..

[gatorcane]

Start of the turn now seen on NHC track:

[tolakram]

[Michele B]

Anguilla, Antigua, Barbuda and Anedega look to get the worst of this. Do we have any members on those islands?

Checking in from Antigua. Needless to say, we are watching every wobble from here on.

OMG!!! 180 mph now Antigua.

Praying for you now.

[dukeblue219]

Peak SFMR of 147kt just found probably supports that 150-155kt advisory range. Still a beast.

[Powellrm]

Hey guys, new to the blog here. Just wanted to drop in and say I've been enjoying the informative conversation and I look forward to posting and joining in. I appreciate the depth of knowledge and I look forward to understanding more! I'm from Wilmington, NC, so I've seen my share of hurricanes. Irma has me quite nervous as the smaller movements are starting mean more towards the overall model shifts. My nightmare is Irma grazing SFL and posturing towards the Carolinas. But first and foremost, my thoughts are with those in the Carib islands and Puerto Rico at this time.

[Tireman4]

Hopefully Ms. Bee is well.....please check in when you can...

[mrbagyo]

Guadeloupe/ Martinique Radar Loop


EWRC?

[txwatcher91]

I'm surprised we're getting 155kt winds with such a large storm. The pressure is rather high for a cat 5.

Likely due to a strong pressure gradient from all the HP around it. Let's hope this weakens and misses the islands to the north so they're on the weaker side.

[psyclone]

I'm surprised we're getting 155kt winds with such a large storm. The pressure is rather high for a cat 5.

I think Katrina was low 900's. I agree the winds seem very high for the pressure. It's not like this is a Charley microcane.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, as opposed to the last update, they suspect she might lose some steam gradually from now on out..

Why is that? Carribean is boiling right now.

[Patrick99]

Good lord.....still catastrophic for Key West, and Tampa not out of the realm of possibility either.

[La Sirena]

All flights out of PBI are full for Wed/Thu/Fri, checking FLL now, but I expect the same... and there are no more reservations in any hotel (that isn't on either coast) until you get to Albany, Georgia.

What the hell do you want us to do? We might not have any CHOICE but to ride it out. The other coast of Florida isn't out of the woods yet. I resent the implication that we are idiots if we are forced to stay here... I'm terrified enough.

Any chance of heading toward southeast Alabama? It's far enough inland that you would likely be fine. I understand your stress right now. I'm hoping for the best for you.

I live in a little town in the middle of the state.

Already people here are freaking out. Hubs had to get gas this morning. He said he was "only" fourth in line! LOL 13 years ago, Charley came right over top of us. People here remember.

If we took off right now for points north, and AL, we likely would ALREADY have a drive twice as long as a normal trip would take. People are taking this very seriously, and the window is quickly closing for evacs. This is why I think if one is planning to go, one needs to do it earlier rather than later.

I guess there's good news in having serious storms "hit" (or nearly hit as Matt did) every year, so people don't forget and get complacent.

It's good to hear that people around you are taking this seriously! The window is closing for evacs and any drive out of state will be longer than usual, agreed. Our former neighbors in the Keys are planning on driving out today to some friends in Boca Raton...but another group of friends is planning on the drive to AL.

But, a lot of posts from friends still in the Keys who haven't experienced a hurricane there a planning on staying or trying to leave later. It's unbelievable. Hoping everyone stays safe wherever this hits. And you too!

[Ken711]

8AM Sunday right on top of the FL Keys.

[txwatcher91]

I'm surprised we're getting 155kt winds with such a large storm. The pressure is rather high for a cat 5.

Likely due to a strong pressure gradient from all the HP around it. Let's hope this weakens and misses the islands to the north so they're on the "weaker" side.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051459
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 36 20170905
144930 1644N 05832W 6964 02498 9241 +188 +101 326021 029 035 001 00
145000 1643N 05833W 6967 02510 9267 +178 +103 316048 059 055 002 03
145030 1641N 05834W 6967 02533 9306 +160 +113 313070 073 066 002 00
145100 1640N 05835W 6961 02571 9340 +147 +122 313084 088 103 002 00
145130 1639N 05837W 6978 02593 //// +119 //// 310107 121 120 001 01
145200 1638N 05838W 6971 02649 9495 +120 +120 304124 126 120 003 03
145230 1637N 05839W 6961 02701 9540 +119 +119 308124 127 110 034 00
145300 1637N 05840W 6984 02721 9592 +116 +116 310117 123 108 029 00
145330 1635N 05841W 6953 02801 9641 +107 +107 312122 126 106 027 00
145400 1634N 05842W 6967 02817 9656 +108 +094 316125 127 102 012 00
145430 1633N 05843W 6961 02861 9710 +100 +099 321115 125 099 006 00
145500 1632N 05844W 6983 02869 9745 +102 +101 323110 113 093 008 00
145530 1631N 05845W 6945 02937 9787 +094 //// 320103 109 087 005 01
145600 1630N 05847W 6978 02916 9812 +093 //// 323096 101 081 005 01
145630 1629N 05848W 6963 02961 9846 +091 //// 317089 094 075 009 01
145700 1627N 05849W 6960 02975 9867 +090 +090 316087 089 072 014 03
145730 1626N 05850W 6968 02981 9887 +088 +088 319082 088 065 016 00
145800 1625N 05851W 6967 02993 9905 +086 +086 317083 084 065 010 00
145830 1624N 05853W 6966 03006 9916 +086 +086 317076 082 064 010 00
145900 1623N 05854W 6967 03016 9932 +085 +085 316072 073 061 009 00
$$
;

[MississippiWx]

Unfortunately, a Northern Leewards direct hit looks unavoidable at this point. Irma continues on a stubborn due west path.

[KBBOCA]

Here's the latest windfield map from boat.us - not sure when it was last updated - looks to be based on last night's 11 p.m. update... Will keep trying to find a current one. But still gives an bit of an idea of the wind impacts ahead for the islands.

[SouthDadeFish]

Please don't focus on the center point of the NHC's cone. Irma could be anywhere within that cone. Still a lot of uncertainty.

[tolakram]

Well, as opposed to the last update, they suspect she might lose some steam gradually from now on out..

Why is that? Carribean is boiling right now.

Sea Surface temps are only part of the equation. Shear, mid level conditions, inflow issues if it skirts the north coast of Hispaniola, etc.