ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

How does the expected speed of Irma once it turns north compare to Matthew? For a Cat5 of this size do they tend to move slower or faster than less intense hurricanes?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

To put things into perspective, Irma is at 155 kts, which makes it the strongest in terms of winds since Rita 2005 which had a pressure of 895 mb at that stage. However, Irma's pressure is actually higher than Igor's at his peak at 924 mb and 135 kts.

[NJWxHurricane]

nhc is favoring the gulf it looks like

[psyclone]

I keep expecting to see the beginning of a right turn in the NHC's extended outlook and keep getting denied. they don't seem to be buying easterly shifts...yet but it will really be interesting to see subsequent forecasts. Nevertheless that forecast is really scary

[KBBOCA]

From Crown Weather's tropical weather page, this graphic. 50 foot waves?!?!?

[ava_ati]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905085058784034816

[ronjon]

Unfortunately, a Northern Leewards direct hit looks unavoidable at this point. Irma continues on a stubborn due west path.

looks like it may come in just south of the 2 pm forecast point - continuing west.

[NDG]

Well, as opposed to the last update, they suspect she might lose some steam gradually from now on out..

Why is that? Carribean is boiling right now.

Probably because of land interactions, it will be tracking very close to the Greater Antilles.

[caneseddy]

I keep expecting to see the beginning of a right turn in the NHC's extended outlook and keep getting denied. they don't seem to be buying easterly shifts...yet but it will really be interesting to see subsequent forecasts. Nevertheless that forecast is really scary

If you look at the 8am Sunday position, you can see a slight bend to the right over the Keys, so they are slowly shifting to the right

[Vdogg]

nhc is favoring the gulf it looks like

No, it's not. The cone of uncertainty is pretty wide at that point with Florida in the middle. If the 12z 's continue the eastward shift that the 6z's started this morning, the portion of the cone that is in the gulf now will be mostly gone by the 5pm update.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, as opposed to the last update, they suspect she might lose some steam gradually from now on out..

Why is that? Carribean is boiling right now.

Probably because of land interactions, it will be tracking very close to the Greater Antilles.

Ah, very well then. Hopefully it weakens enough.

[southwest southerner]

nhc is favoring the gulf it looks like

No, it's not. The cone of uncertainty is pretty wide at that point with Florida in the middle. If the 12z 's continue the eastward shift that the 6z's started this morning, the portion of the cone that is in the gulf now will be mostly gone by the 5pm update.

How could you even know that? Do you work at the NHC?

[NJWxHurricane]

Unfortunately, a Northern Leewards direct hit looks unavoidable at this point. Irma continues on a stubborn due west path.

looks like it may come in just south of the 2 pm forecast point - continuing west.

im seeing some north movement

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051508
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 37 20170905
145930 1621N 05855W 6966 03030 9937 +084 +084 318068 073 058 009 00
150000 1620N 05856W 6968 03040 9932 +088 +086 318065 066 057 005 00
150030 1619N 05858W 6965 03049 9921 +099 +087 318063 064 057 004 00
150100 1618N 05859W 6967 03054 9926 +102 +087 320064 065 056 002 00
150130 1616N 05900W 6971 03062 9932 +109 +090 319059 065 053 001 00
150200 1615N 05902W 6963 03078 9940 +109 +090 319057 058 053 002 00
150230 1614N 05903W 6964 03082 9947 +108 +085 321054 056 050 001 00
150300 1613N 05904W 6974 03078 9952 +111 +080 318056 058 050 001 00
150330 1611N 05905W 6967 03090 9956 +112 +069 315054 056 048 000 00
150400 1610N 05907W 6970 03094 9967 +109 +062 315052 053 048 000 00
150430 1609N 05908W 6959 03109 9974 +107 +058 316051 052 046 000 03
150500 1608N 05909W 6973 03095 9990 +098 +063 318049 050 045 000 00
150530 1606N 05911W 6965 03109 9995 +096 +051 314047 049 044 000 03
150600 1605N 05912W 6969 03107 0006 +091 +052 309044 045 043 000 03
150630 1604N 05913W 6966 03113 0014 +088 +057 316045 046 042 000 00
150700 1603N 05914W 6967 03115 0010 +093 +051 318047 048 041 000 03
150730 1603N 05914W 6967 03115 0011 +095 +047 323046 048 040 000 03
150800 1600N 05917W 6974 03115 0014 +096 +049 319041 045 039 000 00
150830 1559N 05918W 6963 03127 0015 +097 +047 315038 039 039 000 03
150900 1558N 05920W 6967 03126 0011 +103 +043 316037 038 038 000 00
$$
;

[Category6]

The storm definitely looks to moving WNW right now, or at least a pinch north of due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[CrazyC83]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 051504
XXAA 55157 99168 70585 04268 99927 26009 33507 00/// ///// /////
92022 25809 33508 85766 22412 36005 70458 18456 34506 88999 77999
31313 09608 81449
61616 AF309 0811A IRMA OB 16
62626 CENTER MBL WND 34006 AEV 33304 DLM WND 35004 926697 WL150 3
3508 082 REL 1675N05851W 144906 SPG 1675N05851W 145257 =
XXBB 55158 99168 70585 04268 00927 26009 11850 22412 22779 22856
33708 19856 44697 18057
21212 00927 33507 11905 34008 22895 34503 33850 36005 44697 35008
31313 09608 81449
61616 AF309 0811A IRMA OB 16
62626 CENTER MBL WND 34006 AEV 33304 DLM WND 35004 926697 WL150 3
3508 082 REL 1675N05851W 144906 SPG 1675N05851W 145257 =
;

Dropsonde: 927mb

[Cunxi Huang]

gorgeous.

[Vdogg]

nhc is favoring the gulf it looks like

No, it's not. The cone of uncertainty is pretty wide at that point with Florida in the middle. If the 12z 's continue the eastward shift that the 6z's started this morning, the portion of the cone that is in the gulf now will be mostly gone by the 5pm update.

How could you even know that? Do you work at the NHC?

Don't need to work for the NHC to know that their track generally follows model consensus. That's pretty much common knowledge. They may shift a track to the bottom or top of guidance, but if the entirety of the guidance moves east or west the track usually does the same.

[KBBOCA]

Guadeloupe radar now clearly showing Irma's eye
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Sorry mods, I don't know how to save & embed an animation. Can someone PM me with info on how to do it? Thanks

[Airboy]

927mb from the dropsonde