ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

Well, as opposed to the last update, they suspect she might lose some steam gradually from now on out..

Why is that? Carribean is boiling right now.

Don't ask me..

as per NHC:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.8N 58.4W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.0W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.4N 74.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 22.7N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.4N 81.2W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Vdogg]

The storm definitely looks to moving WNW right now, or at least a pinch north of due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Yup, 16.8 in this advisory, was 16.7 in the last one.

[OverlandHurricane]

Speaking of the Florida Keys, when was the last time they were under a mandatory evacuation order? Wilma?

[Blown Away]

Unfortunately, a Northern Leewards direct hit looks unavoidable at this point. Irma continues on a stubborn due west path.

Irma is exactly on track...

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, as opposed to the last update, they suspect she might lose some steam gradually from now on out..

Why is that? Carribean is boiling right now.

Don't ask me..

as per NHC:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.8N 58.4W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.0W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.4N 74.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 22.7N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.4N 81.2W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Possible interaction with Caribbean islands.

[Sanibel]

The NHC has been very accurate with track and they have their track going into the Gulf...


Meanwhile the computer models have done the opposite and nudged more towards the east...

[meriland29]

Why is that? Carribean is boiling right now.

Don't ask me..

as per NHC:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.8N 58.4W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.0W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.4N 74.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 22.7N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.4N 81.2W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Possible interaction with Caribbean islands.

That, and/or likely EWRC's. Then again, it was just yesterday afternoon that the NHC didn't even expect it to reach 150mph so, I guess it really could be a toss up. But hopefully, a weakening trend does happen.

[Aric Dunn]

Just woke up .. WOW ... that is a very high pressure for such high winds.

[ronyan]

Went and checked the SHIPS RI index from yesterday evening. Showed 19% chance of 20kt / 12 hours.

I was surprised to see this much increase in winds with Irma given that the pressure had not dropped a large amount.

[NJWxHurricane]

guys please look at the track and hurricane before making declarative statements, everything is on track so far

[Stormcenter]

That track would take it over the Gulf along the Florida west coast side and not over Florida assuming there is not a sharp turn north.

Start of the turn now seen on NHC track:

[p1nheadlarry]

To put things into perspective, Irma is at 155 kts, which makes it the strongest in terms of winds since Rita 2005 which had a pressure of 895 mb at that stage. However, Irma's pressure is actually higher than Igor's at his peak at 924 mb and 135 kts.

Igor was much larger

[DESTRUCTION5]

The NHC has been very accurate with track and they have their track going into the Gulf...


Meanwhile the computer models have done the opposite and nudged more towards the east...

I think the 12z suite will determine where they bump the 5 day position. If GFS comes in East again and Euro goes east at all they will be splitting the state with it at the very min.

[NJWxHurricane]

man o man it looks like nhc took the cmc run into large consideration, gulf hit imo

[DelrayMorris]

"Do not ride it out" - means WHAT??

12million people cannot evacuate the state of FL, and the islands cannot evacuate AT ALL.

All flights out of PBI are full for Wed/Thu/Fri, checking FLL now, but I expect the same... and there are no more reservations in any hotel (that isn't on either coast) until you get to Albany, Georgia.

What the hell do you want us to do? We might not have any CHOICE but to ride it out. The other coast of Florida isn't out of the woods yet. I resent the implication that we are idiots if we are forced to stay here... I'm terrified enough.

Any chance of heading toward southeast Alabama? It's far enough inland that you would likely be fine. I understand your stress right now. I'm hoping for the best for you.

Darn, I had hoped that I'd deleted it before anyone responded. There are still flights out of Orlando, so that's an option.

[ROCK]

NHC has it loses some punch due to land interaction and EWRCs....hard to maintain cat 5 intensity for a long period..Not that a cat 4 is devastating enough. .I like the NHCs thinking thus far...

[Blown Away]

Gaining latitude slowly...

[MaineWeatherNut]

nhc is favoring the gulf it looks like

No, it's not. The cone of uncertainty is pretty wide at that point with Florida in the middle. If the 12z 's continue the eastward shift that the 6z's started this morning, the portion of the cone that is in the gulf now will be mostly gone by the 5pm update.

The Cone has nothing to do with Model runs. It has to do with the Official NHC Forecast track and then the cone is decided based on the amount of miles error there historically has been at each forecast point. So the only way the Cone will move out of the GoM is if the NHC moves their forecast.

[NJWxHurricane]

To put things into perspective, Irma is at 155 kts, which makes it the strongest in terms of winds since Rita 2005 which had a pressure of 895 mb at that stage. However, Irma's pressure is actually higher than Igor's at his peak at 924 mb and 135 kts.

Igor was much larger

much much larger

[GCANE]