ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Brent]

Code RED

A broad low pressure system has remained nearly stationary for the
past several hours about 650 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is currently
disorganized, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for the development of a tropical depression after
midweek. The disturbance is expected to drift westward for the next
day or two, followed a motion toward the west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[La Breeze]

Planning a trip down to the Keys for July 15-19, should Invest 94L cause a direct threat to that area as of this time? I know things will and do change.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro is more of the same. Down to 1011mb before it kills it around 70W though.

[Hammy]

What are the implications, if any, for later in the season should this develop?

[AJC3]

00z Euro is more of the same. Down to 1011mb before it kills it around 70W though.

At H240, it still shows a coherent (albeit weak) surface-850MB low centered near 28-29N, 74-75W and moving WNW.

It also shows the eastern CONUS mid level trough having filled in by that time, with a 500MB "thumb" ridge to its north.

This will be an interesting watch this week.

[Cpv17]

Climatology tells us for this time of the year that a recurve is not that likely.

[AJC3]

Climatology tells us for this time of the year that a recurve is not that likely.

Actually, what climatology tells us is that for the infrequent TC that manages to form in the MDR in early July, if it moves anywhere but SOUTH of the eastern "Hebert Box" (bounded by 15-20N, 60-65W), it will likely recurve east of the CONUS. Bertha (1997) is the lone exception that comes to mind. Obviously, climatology is just that - and in this case represents a fairly small data set, however we need to be accurate when we bring it up.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS further north and stronger @ hour 138.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the forecast evolution has the track north of the islands in response to a weakness interaction.
This mornings GFS brought the storm west as far as -70W but with a strong east coast trough that may not be a problem.
There is plenty of water between the Carolina shoals and Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS operational almost stalls it southwest of Bermuda as a powerful hurricane.

[BobHarlem]

6Z GFS has a fish, hooks it around Bermuda. Euro bends it back west a bit more before the run ends, closer to the Bahamas. Cindy went down the middle of the models. Middle here is really close to the Outer Banks.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What are the implications, if any, for later in the season should this develop?

If 94L becomes a hurricane, then it's probably similar implications that Bertha signaled in 2008, IMO.

[cycloneye]

All the operational and ensembles.

[xironman]

The Euro ensemble mean is showing a weaker and more transient east coast trough after 198 that the GEFS.

[cycloneye]

Cone shifts more westnorthwest.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A nearly stationary broad area of low pressure located about 650
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form later this week. The
disturbance is expected to begin moving west-northwestward in a day
or so, and it should continue moving in that direction through the
remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[OuterBanker]

Encouraged by the models. All break the 20/60 rule.

(The majority of storms north of 20 north at 60 west go out to sea).

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2017070312, , BEST, 0, 90N, 324W, 25, 1011, LO


Location: 9.0°N 32.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[cycloneye]

[AutoPenalti]

Interesting, looks like this may be a recurve scenario.

[boca]

It looks like the famous east coast trough will appear to curve 94L out to sea