ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/bn9weather/status/891812934669783040

[CDO62]

I mean all in all its not looking bad for what it is.. small ( though still attached to the trough) radar is slightly improving satellite is not all that impressive until you zoom in and notice the small defined circ. sub trop looks like more of a possibility if it does anyhting at first then cross the state and maybe get going.

What would cause the low to detach from the front that apparently is still sinking southward? The NHC has the direction of movement of the low moving on a more NW direction on their graphic.

[Nimbus]

The winds have swung around so they are coming out of the NE at the surface near the Tampa Buoy.
Looks like it could be classified as a TD before landfall but it is still clinging to the trough.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42036&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

[tolakram]

Did the troughs that carved into the Eastern U.S. back in the summer of 2004 dig this far south into central FL?

I posted this in the indicators thread so you could do the research yourself.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20040806.html

August 7th 2004 with a cold front draped over Florida.


The 13th, the day Charlie rapidly intensified into a cat 4.

[Aric Dunn]

I mean all in all its not looking bad for what it is.. small ( though still attached to the trough) radar is slightly improving satellite is not all that impressive until you zoom in and notice the small defined circ. sub trop looks like more of a possibility if it does anyhting at first then cross the state and maybe get going.

What would cause the low to detach from the front that apparently is still sinking southward? The NHC has the direction of movement of the low moving on a more NW direction on their graphic.[img]http://i.imgur.com/ElnOFQf.png[/ig]

If it were to deepen then it would begin to detach

[NDG]

Yes, I agree with you Cyclone Mike.

Don't forget 2004, is what I keep saying, like many other years that other posters have mentioned that despite deep troughs across the Eastern US during late and early August it does not mean that this pattern will stay like this during the heart of the hurricane season.
The Atlantic has been strong this year.

Did the troughs that carved into the Eastern U.S. back in the summer of 2004 dig this far south into central FL?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2017073100, , BEST, 0, 280N, 846W, 30, 1009, LO

[tropicwatch]

The past two hours this buoy Station 42036 (LLNR 855) - WEST TAMPA - 112 NM WNW of Tampa, FL has been reporting ENE winds. It also has a pressure around 1010mb.

[NDG]

Yeap, I was getting ready to post how the area of low pressure tracked over the buoy and shows the winds calming down then the shift.

[Nimbus]

Naked swirl off the east coast of Florida indicates these areas are under the dry flow on the back side of the front now. Might see a reduction in the easterly component of motion for the low off the west coast.

[NDG]

By the way, models show the low pressure area to almost stall just west of Tampa Bay with stormy weather through at least Tuesday morning for the Bay area.

[Aric Dunn]

Whis that second low off the NE coast of FL I highly doubt this turns to the NE. SE drifting while the shear is high as the circ ride along the trough and where th convection keeps refiring as well as rotating around that larger low.. Should be entertaining to watch..

Also a possibility it never crosses the state..

[Aric Dunn]

just dont forget humberto.. even a sheared mess can become a strong hurricane. humberto on satellite looked like barely a Ts but radar appearance was pretty amazing.


Satellite



Radar

[NDG]

Late tonight it is still very impressive.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, checking in after a few hours and I am quite surprised to see 98L looking as good as it is on radar and IR imagery late this evening. There is quite an impressive convective ban rotating counterclockwise into the LLC , as seen in radar imagery which NDG posted above.

98L has held up quite nicely and has fended off the dry air to this point. I would say radar presentation currently could qualify this being at least as a TD. However, the big question is if 98L has detached itself enough from the. frontal boundary to have completely attained tropical characteristics. Tonight it looks as if that may have finally happened. We will see.

But, late tonight, 98L looks about as good as it has ever been to this juncture.

[Ptarmigan]

just dont forget humberto.. even a sheared mess can become a strong hurricane. humberto on satellite looked like barely a Ts but radar appearance was pretty amazing.


Satellite
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 130645.GIF


Radar
https://thetimedok.files.wordpress.com/ ... can-be.png

Humberto intensified quickly. Had it been over the water, it could be a Category 3 hurricane.

[stormreader]

just dont forget humberto.. even a sheared mess can become a strong hurricane. humberto on satellite looked like barely a Ts but radar appearance was pretty amazing.


Satellite



Radar

Love that radar pic of Humberto. Perhaps the model storm for unexpected rapid intensification. Right there in coastal waters. Small cat 2 from nowhere.

[NDG]

Buoy just south of the circulation is reporting almost 8' waves up from only 3' waves earlier today.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42099

[GeneratorPower]

Late tonight it is still very impressive.

Came here to post this. On high res radar it's very cool. Looks like an eye.

[HurricaneBelle]

By the way, models show the low pressure area to almost stall just west of Tampa Bay with stormy weather through at least Tuesday morning for the Bay area.

Looks like it's about to stall, it's barely drifted east in the last couple of hours. It is sending multiple bands of storms into Pinellas, just had a squally band come through about 20 minutes ago.