ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Those overshooting tops firing all day long must have had some decent helicity to snap the vort column more vertically.

Really looks good for this time of day.

Another pouch able to beat SAL.

[tolakram]

The 12Z euro is a little stronger again, plus it brings back the low rider near the end of the run. Sometimes it's as if the 0z and 12Z runs are using a different set of inputs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2017070512&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=97

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Those overshooting tops firing all day long must have had some decent helicity to snap the vort column more vertically.

Really looks good for this time of day.

Another pouch able to beat SAL.

http://i67.tinypic.com/1rdqvq.png

94 doesn't want to be a statistic and snuff out like many do at this time of year.

[tolakram]

Visible Loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[boca]

That's a system behind 94L that's a low rider

[weathaguyry]

Not too bad! Am I going nuts or is there a curved band forming to the east in the last few frames?

[tolakram]

That's a system behind 94L that's a low rider

Yea, I was noting that the last run completely dropped the second system and this run has it again AND makes 94L a little stronger.

[MississippiWx]

Bouy that flashes on the RAMSDIS site near the center of 94L is showing an MSLP of 1000mb. Not sure if accurate, but interesting anyway. This looks like a TC for now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[blp]

That's a system behind 94L that's a low rider

Yea, I was noting that the last run completely dropped the second system and this run has it again AND makes 94L a little stronger.

And farther West like the 12z yesterday. You make a good observation.

[weathaguyry]

Bouy that flashes on the RAMSDIS site near the center of 94L is showing an MSLP of 1000mb. Not sure if accurate, but interesting anyway. This looks like a TC for now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Upgrade at 5PM?

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/882687303491125249

[Hurricaneman]

Bouy that flashes on the RAMSDIS site near the center of 94L is showing an MSLP of 1000mb. Not sure if accurate, but interesting anyway. This looks like a TC for now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

That's actually quite interesting as if true this could be a mid range tropical storm so maybe an upgrade is possible based on this bouy data unless it's broken

[abajan]

Bouy that flashes on the RAMSDIS site near the center of 94L is showing an MSLP of 1000mb. Not sure if accurate, but interesting anyway. This looks like a TC for now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Good eye (no pun intended). I had to tilt my laptop to see that that was 1000, because (at least on my screen) the light green is hard to read against the white clouds in the background.

[Hurricaneman]

Have they ever dropped development chances only to have to write an advisory package anyway

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Not too bad! Am I going nuts or is there a curved band forming to the east in the last few frames?

I don't see it, but that doesn't mean you're going nuts...

[abajan]

Bouy that flashes on the RAMSDIS site near the center of 94L is showing an MSLP of 1000mb. Not sure if accurate, but interesting anyway. This looks like a TC for now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Upgrade at 5PM?

With 60%/60% chances for TC formation in the TWO just three hours before, I doubt it.

[wxman57]

Have they ever dropped development chances only to have to write an advisory package anyway

I'm sure that's happened. They're not saying it won't develop. Chances are still better-than-not (60%). They're just not as confident that it will ever qualify for an upgrade.

[weathaguyry]

:uarrow: Not too bad! Am I going nuts or is there a curved band forming to the east in the last few frames?

I don't see it, but that doesn't mean you're going nuts...

Upon closer inspection, it appears my mind is playing tricks on me, I guess looking at a satellite loop while working in the sun isn't a great idea

[Aric Dunn]

IF this were near land it would have already been classified. but regardless its still looking better and better. the sal is still just to its east so will have to wait and see if it can stay ahead of it.

[Hammy]

Have they ever dropped development chances only to have to write an advisory package anyway

I'm sure that's happened. They're not saying it won't develop. Chances are still better-than-not (60%). They're just not as confident that it will ever qualify for an upgrade.

What would prevent it from qualifying at the moment? It seems like it's organized quickly over the last several hours.