ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bob3]

Hi all,

Long time reader. First time poster from NJ. I saw in the recon thread that 192 mph winds were found. Could we see upgrade on next NHC advisory?

[MississippiWx]

Irma is exactly on track...

A wobble north put it more on track, but it is still a hair south of the next point on its current motion. Doesn't change the fact that it's on a direct path to hit the Northern Leewards. Not sure if you're trying to deny that point or what.

except this isn't on a due west track, that's what he's trying to tell you..

Come around a little more often before you start calling people wish casters. Lol.

Motion is still west on the advisory. I agree there is more northward component than before, but still west. My statement was made in regard to the fact that there looks like no escape for the Northern islands.

Anyway, carry on.

[WeatherGuesser]

The bickering really isn't helping.

[Dave C]

Strong feeder band wrapping into se quad on latest pics.

[dukeblue219]

Hi all,

Long time reader. First time poster from NJ. I saw in the recon thread that 192 mph winds were found. Could we see upgrade on next NHC advisory?

Doubtful. That sounds like a flight-level winds figure, or something a dropsonde measured on the way down (but not at the surface). The latest penetration of the strongest quadrant found surface winds at ~169 mph. That's quite reasonable for this storm and doesn't really suggest anything is changing on its own. But no, I have not seen anything suggestive of 192mph at the surface. What was the context of that number?

[WeatherGuesser]

Hi all,

Long time reader. First time poster from NJ. I saw in the recon thread that 192 mph winds were found. Could we see upgrade on next NHC advisory?

There is no upgrade beyond Cat 5.

[AutoPenalti]

Strong feeder band wrapping into se quad on latest pics.

Deepening a bit more now, getting stronger at 927mb

[MississippiWx]

Hi all,

Long time reader. First time poster from NJ. I saw in the recon thread that 192 mph winds were found. Could we see upgrade on next NHC advisory?

There is no upgrade beyond Cat 5.

Think they meant an upgrade in winds.

But I think those were flight level winds, not positive.

[Bob3]

Hi all,

Long time reader. First time poster from NJ. I saw in the recon thread that 192 mph winds were found. Could we see upgrade on next NHC advisory?

There is no upgrade beyond Cat 5.

I obviously meant upgrading the winds, but perhaps upgrade is the wrong terminology.

[Bob3]

Hi all,

Long time reader. First time poster from NJ. I saw in the recon thread that 192 mph winds were found. Could we see upgrade on next NHC advisory?

There is no upgrade beyond Cat 5.

Think they meant an upgrade in winds.

But I think those were flight level winds, not positive.

Yes, flight level. Is there a conversion from flight level to what would be surface winds?

[nascarfan999]

A little bit of good news (relatively speaking) is the winds on that SW side appear to fall off much faster than in in the other areas, and that SW side is the one likely to hit some of these islands the most. Hopefully many of those areas can dodge the eyewall and make out ok. Unfortunately, I'm sure some will not so thoughts and prayers with all in the path.

[dukeblue219]

Yes, flight level. Is there a conversion from flight level to what would be surface winds?

The basic rule-of-thumb is 90% at the surface, but that can vary. If you like MPH, the even cruder way is to take the flight-level winds in knots (as it's listed) and just think of it as mph. That'll get you close.

[KBBOCA]

Here's a saved image from the Guadeloupe radar animation. 15:30 Z September 5

https://ibb.co/gqop8a

Sorry I don't know how to save the animation.

Link is here: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Really wanting to see more of a northward movement!

The satellite animation is here:
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... les-guyane

[SunnyThoughts]

Apparently Rick Scott has activated the National guard in Fla.

[Bob3]

Yes, flight level. Is there a conversion from flight level to what would be surface winds?

The basic rule-of-thumb is 90% at the surface, but that can vary. If you like MPH, the even cruder way is to take the flight-level winds in knots (as it's listed) and just think of it as mph. That'll get you close.

Thank you.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 051520
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 05/14:49:00Z
B. 16 deg 46 min N
058 deg 30 min W
C. 700 mb 2454 m
D. 147 kt
E. 067 deg 20 nm
F. 160 deg 142 kt
G. 067 deg 22 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 8 C / 3022 m
J. 19 C / 3050 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0811A IRMA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 147 KT 046 / 17 NM 12:57:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 127 KT 225 / 11 NM 14:52:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 335 / 7 KT
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 065 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Yukon Cornelius]

If 95L strengthens, is there a chance that it would change the path of Irma to more West?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051548
AF309 0811A IRMA HDOB 41 20170905
153930 1526N 05833W 6969 03139 0024 +106 +045 249038 038 040 000 03
154000 1526N 05831W 6966 03141 0020 +109 +043 246040 041 040 000 03
154030 1526N 05829W 6966 03142 0023 +107 +039 243040 041 039 000 03
154100 1526N 05827W 6970 03135 0029 +100 +040 241040 040 039 000 00
154130 1526N 05825W 6965 03142 0031 +100 +042 239040 040 038 000 00
154200 1526N 05823W 6967 03141 0037 +097 +047 237041 041 038 000 00
154230 1526N 05820W 6966 03146 0040 +094 +060 236041 042 039 000 03
154300 1526N 05818W 6967 03146 0038 +098 +055 228044 046 043 001 03
154330 1526N 05816W 6967 03149 0055 +083 +073 228046 048 045 011 00
154400 1526N 05814W 6970 03139 0035 +097 +063 228046 047 047 005 00
154430 1526N 05812W 6960 03152 0044 +089 +073 227044 047 042 006 00
154500 1526N 05810W 6970 03139 0056 +082 +080 230046 047 048 008 03
154530 1526N 05808W 6950 03170 0074 +090 +090 226047 054 051 032 03
154600 1526N 05805W 6973 03138 0073 +081 +081 226047 049 054 016 00
154630 1526N 05803W 6963 03155 0070 +077 +071 219044 047 045 008 00
154700 1526N 05801W 6969 03147 0052 +089 +073 219045 047 043 003 00
154730 1526N 05759W 6967 03152 0045 +096 +068 218045 046 043 001 03
154800 1526N 05757W 6967 03150 0041 +097 +064 215046 047 042 000 03
154830 1528N 05757W 6969 03150 0044 +096 +063 211046 046 045 000 00
154900 1530N 05756W 6965 03153 0052 +090 +065 210047 048 046 001 00
$$
;

[Hurrilurker]

The panic in S Fla on Wednesday-Thursday (ish) is going to be extreme if something doesn't knock Irma down soon. Evacuation will soon be an impossibility for most people.

Right now I feel terrible for the southern Bahamas, they are going to get absolutely bulldozed. With 170+ mph winds, it may look like a bulldozer actually went over the islands.

[psyclone]

Sometimes when it rains it pours. notice the track for newly designated Jose crosses Irma's path as a category 2 storm. Imagine if there was a landmass at that point...you'd feel really unlucky. I guess the point is that just because a spot has recently been hit doesn't mean it's off the hook going forward. thank goodness it's in the middle of the ocean.