ATL: IRMA - Models

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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4101 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:02 am

Every run triggers an adrenaline rush in me. :lol: It's exciting yet unsettling at the same time.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4102 Postby JPmia » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:03 am

The UKMO ensembles from 00z last night are interesting showing the trend of south and west: https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
you will have to select them first to see them on the map.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4103 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:07 am

looks a little WNW last 3 plots... wobbles?
Last edited by Frank P on Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4104 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:07 am

126 SW of 06z

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4105 Postby ronyan » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:07 am

Irma is displaced well SW of the 06z run @ 126 hr.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4106 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 am

ronyan wrote:Irma is displaced well SW of the 06z run @ 126 hr.

@35 miles SW of 06z.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4107 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 am

12z GFS should recurve away from Florida, but it's definitely SW of what it was during the 06z run. Trough still prominent over the NE CONUS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4108 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:08 am

I sense a FL hit or a really close call.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4109 Postby boca » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 am

Why would it curve away from Florida it's a trend to the SW, if anything it would be a closer approach I would think
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4110 Postby Ken711 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 am

Trough pulling out faster this run?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4111 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 am

It's a very small shift from 6z to the SW given the run is 5 plus days out now
Last edited by toad strangler on Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4112 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:10 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:12z GFS should recurve away from Florida, but it's definitely SW of what it was during the 06z run. Trough still prominent over the NE CONUS.

Umm, no not really. The trough is lifting out rather quickly.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4113 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 am

There's a big open hole to the north for it to go to, it won't hit Florida this run either.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4114 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 am

the trend is what is important in each run...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4115 Postby ronyan » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 am

Deepening rapidly @ 132. May be more trouble for the NE Bahamas this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4116 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 am

891 mb... stronger than 899 from the 06z run, and more SW as well
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4117 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:11 am

Maybe a mid Florida coast scrape? Just a guess.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4118 Postby rockyman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:12 am

891 mb at 144hr (!)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4119 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:12 am

Slowing down @144 ..... ready for the more N component?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4120 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:12 am

144

Image
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