ATL: IRMA - Models

[1900hurricane]

ET height patterns have become rather consistent for the last 3 operational GFS runs in the current tau 144-150 time frame, down to the anticyclonic wave break cutting off the trough.

[SouthFLTropics]

168 Parallel to the Coast

[Frank P]

looks like it is paralleling the coast.. but pretty damn close

[stormreader]

TREND...This is the most SW it has been over the past 4 runs of the GFS

https://s26.postimg.org/6cbskkoxl/gfs_z500a_Norm_atl_fh150_trend.gif[

Significant shift SW. Really see these trends continuing, its why I put my "Irma window' from Cape Fear, NC down to the North coast of Cuba. Keeping that window in place, for now. But the southerly trends are becoming more alarming now for S Fl. The turn could be very late, actually happening over S Fl and taking Irma into the extreme E GOM, or a possibility I have talked about for a couple of days now, Irma actually missing the trough, and treking WNW over S Fl, or perhaps with a building ridge even a more temporary west push, well out into the GOM.

[toad strangler]

So, noticeably further S & W before the turn towards the Carolinas ..... not what you want to see trend wise

[AutoPenalti]

Recurves last second from SE Florida, Carolinas look out.

[HurricaneFrances04]

If the rest of the run plays out like the 06Z, it will probably be a Charleston hit on the 12Z.

[Aric Dunn]

This track should not be a surprise as the 06z gfs memebers were showing a florida straight hurricane with a sharp turn up the spine of florida. this is just a little east. expect the gfs memebers to shift west again.

[cypher2001]

883 monster and no-where to go...

[WeatherEmperor]

12z UKMeT shofts even more west

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt


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[SouthFLTropics]

Trend...last 5 runs

[SFLcane]

Woah GFS this must stop now!

[toad strangler]

The trend has not been FL's friend

[SouthFLTropics]

Nowhere to go

[caneman]

There's a big open hole to the north for it to go to, it won't hit Florida this run either.

Thats not a big open hole. Look at the thumb sticking out

[sma10]

12z UKMeT shofts even more west

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt


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This is a significant run, if correct. 144hr pos of 22.5 74.7 and essentially moving w to wnw

[stormreader]

Recurves last second from SE Florida, Carolinas look out.

Carolinas definitely in play. But you have to look at the trends here, a week away from model forecasted near approach to Fl. Becoming less likely that models swing back east. Fl landfall very serious possibility now.

[JPmia]

12z UKMeT shofts even more west

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt


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Yes, that's alarming. Last night's run and ensembles were left of the ECMF and GFS. and this one shows a west turn in the southern Bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

Seriously GFS...Now you're just showing off. 883MB

[ronyan]

This run is going in at the SC/NC border as near MSLP record hurricane according to the GFS. No chance it' could be 880s there right?