ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rail Dawg]

Victoria is currently calling for 80mph winds at 2:00am.

[jlauderdal]

This storm is crazy! Weird how everywhere else but FL has gotten hurricane action in the last 11 years. Matthew didn't do much.

Huh, palm beach north to the line saw plenty of damage

[tatertawt24]

Oh boy, here we go....Going to be a long night in Texas. Might be strongest storm to hit US since Charley and the strongest for Texas since Carla I believe...

Depends on whether Celia gets upgraded to cat4 in reanalysis. This is actually very, very similar to Celia.

[AubreyStorm]

Vía Levi Cowan

At 4:20pm CDT, recon aircraft measured a 130mph estimated surface wind in #Harvey's northern eyewall, the highest yet.

[BYG Jacob]

The only question I have now is how close to cat 5 this gets.

[Langinbang187]

113kts on SFMR!1!

High rain rates though, no?

[Ntxw]

This is probably a category 4

113kts SFMR...likely good enough for Cat 4

[hd44]

The only question I have now is how close to cat 5 this gets.

That wont happen.It has a limit. The waters get shallower closer to land... its not like its the loop curent in the central gom. Cat 4 likely.

[Kingarabian]

113kts on SFMR!1!

High rain rates though, no?

Hm yeah likely since the previous winds were even higher rates.

[tatertawt24]

Is the 113kt surface estimate a gust or sustained?

[tolakram]

visible loop
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=28&lon=-97&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I understand the rain issue.

The rain is THE issue for the Houston area. We're talking about potentially the one of the worst flooding events in American history centered near Houston.

I lived through Allison as a kid. If this is even worse than Allison...I have no idea how to describe it. It's gonna be awful.
I'm in Los Angeles now, but my family is in their house back in Houston, and we barely avoided flooding in Allison. Like, the water was just inches from the door. I remember opening the door, and seeing the light reflecting off the dark water ripples just outside. My mom and dad were moving all our belongings onto the second floor. It was a really scary time.

I'm sorry if I keep making jokes all the time and you want to delete my posts as a result. It's honestly how I cope with it.

[jdjaguar]

Is the 113kt surface estimate a gust or sustained?

Sustained

[toto]

If it wobbles west too much that would put Corpus Christi in the western or southwest eyewall.

That dopey mayor mccomb didnt issue an evacuation order

No mandatory evacuations in Corpus Christie?

!

The Weather Channel showed a video of him saying he will not make evacuation mandatory but emergency workers will not be risking their lives to rescue those who decide to stay.

Btw... I have a friend who moved from here [Dallas] to North Padre Island. Her electricity goes out for hours at a time on good days.

.

[Sciencerocks]

Is the 113kt surface estimate a gust or sustained?

Sustained

[BYG Jacob]

The only question I have now is how close to cat 5 this gets.

That wont happen.It has a limit. The waters get shallower closer to land... its not like its the loop curent in the central gom. Cat 4 likely.

I didn't say it would get there, just seeing how close it will get.

[EquusStorm]

Long term satellite loops make it obvious that this is going to be intensifying at least right up to if not through landfall. Those always seem super nasty compared to those weakening at landfall. The eye now versus this morning is pretty scary.

[Andrew92]

I just realized: Member Andrew92's second-year-after-El-Nino rule is proving itself yet again.

It is, unfortunately.

Godspeed to all those in the path of this storm in Texas. I have been offering prayers for safety and well-being through this. Please stay safe, everyone in that part of the world.

-Andrew92

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Harvey is slowly pumping the brakes!

[Cunxi Huang]

Aransas is now suffering 65-70 mph wind and 80 mph gust.