ATL: IRMA - Models

[Weatherboy1]

Been in a state of "Watchful Waiting" since Friday here in Palm Beach County. But I have to say the trend has definitely not been friendly the last 18 hours. Reminds me of Matthew models gradually inching west with each run. Still far enough out that the trend may stop and/or reverse. But the westward shift in the UK model, the direct hit on the CMC, the creeping west of the GFS is concerning.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Trough is there on the run though of the GFS, and it seems to be slower. It could trend slower and slower till the trough catches it? Just hopefully thinking from the Wilmington, NC area I suppose.

Edit:
Trough that catches Irma at hour 240 is trending faster, and it could end up catching her before US landfall in future runs.

The GFS and all the other models have been trending southwesterly for the past day and the runs exhibit the trough pulling out earlier rather than later and the ridge rebuilding. Fellow members had posted several images and GIFs depicting the dramatic trend closer to Florida and the Carolinas a few minutes ago.

I am talking about the trough depicted on the GFS interacting with it at hour 240 when it is around Kentucky I believe. Last run the GFS took it further into the US, and maybe a trend of a trough that could save the Carolina coastline?????????? Now Florida or south of Carolina would not have that luxury of hoping for something like that. Hoping ECMWF trends east. Tired of seeing my area under the gun.

[stormreader]

I'm curious to know - the westward kink at the end of the UKMET, could that be the beginning of a longer term movement, a stall or a temporary jog before it turns back to the north?

I see a few GFS ensembles doing the west jog before turning to the north.

Too early to say for sure, but it could be a first hint at a longer term movement. It would mean that an Irma turn would be very late, perhaps turning after a S Fl hit, or may be showing no dramatic turn at all, but a move more west into the Gulf of Mexico. Just one run. Can't take it too seriously, yet. But I think we need to be alert to it.

[KWT]

HWRF should be kicking off pretty soon.

Already is, out to 45hrs and still below 17N with a central pressure of 935mbs. HWRF has held back from the monster deep pressures that the HMON and GFS have both shown so lets see what happens this run.

[txwatcher91]

The CMC is not a very good model for TC track. It performed horribly with Harvey and has not done very well with Irma either. A blend of the GFS, Euro, and UKMET is the best choice here. The consensus seems to strongly favor a storm in the Bahamas in 6 days with a strong pull north towards SC or NC. I don’t see a Florida landfall happening but there will still be widespread impacts from the large wind field.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF pretty much identical so far through 45 hours.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm thinking a slightly NE landfall of where the 12z gfs has it so NE NC or Virginia, I've noticed the model trending slightly stronger with the cutoff and subsequent weakness which would pull the storm further north.

Also how far south it is while east of the Bahamas will also be key. I don't think an eventual US landfall can be avoided with that strong Banana high ridge from the Midwest to Nova Scotia.

Irma will likely be a massive system, everyone from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic will see impacts from her, some devastating unless we see a rapid shift in the synoptic pattern.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF out to 51 hrs is about a degree slower... not good.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF out to 51 hrs is about a degree slower... not good.

nevermid was on the wrong image again..

its slightly slower though..

[KWT]

HMON is VERY close to hitting the Caribbean islands this run, especially the far NE islands, the trend definitely seems to be heading towards them.

[Alyono]

HWRF out to 51 hrs is about a degree slower... not good.

it's actually a quarter degree FASTER

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF out to 51 hrs is about a degree slower... not good.

it's actually a quarter degree FASTER

read my edit. i was on the wrong image..

yes its slight faster at 60 hours.. 59. vs 59.1 roughly.

[Sambucol]

Is there a possibility it could get into the GOM? I'm in the area with flooding from Harvey. We would like to close the gulf and get fall started now. Please.

[sma10]

HWRF out to 51 hrs is about a degree slower... not good.

it's actually a quarter degree FASTER

Was Irma's (seemingly) temporary break from the southerly motion this afternoon properly modeled? I realize these things wobble all the time, but todays motion is surely not a simple wobble

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/904385994442629120

[AutoPenalti]

The CMC is not a very good model for TC track. It performed horribly with Harvey and has not done very well with Irma either. A blend of the GFS, Euro, and UKMET is the best choice here. The consensus seems to strongly favor a storm in the Bahamas in 6 days with a strong pull north towards SC or NC. I don’t see a Florida landfall happening but there will still be widespread impacts from the large wind field.

Well, we have to look at trends, we are closely entering the 5 day mark where we will more or less know where it will impact.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM 120 hours:

[sma10]

HWRF out to 51 hrs is about a degree slower... not good.

it's actually a quarter degree FASTER

Was Irma's (seemingly) temporary break from the southerly motion this afternoon properly modeled? I realize these things wobble all the time, but todays motion is surely not a simple wobble

Well, I'll answer my own question: no. HWRF 12z for example, progs Irma at 17n 50w by 8pm tonight, and its not going to be anywhere close to that. Wonder if that calls all these runs into question?

[ROCK]

If I was a FL resident now is the time to think about moving inland or take a vacay next week. Models have trended west and now look like a Fl issue the EC. All the other models have tended west with the EURO.

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM 120 hours:

Not good trackwise but I think the NAV is slightly bonkers with intensity..JMO