ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jevo]

[toto]

Something not yet mentioned is that the predicted storm surge from Harvey is currently forecast to inundate the Braskem Seadrift Polypropylene refinery in Seadrift, Texas.

If the plant fails, I can't help but wonder how much environmental damage it would cause.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Brask ... 95!5m1!1e1

South Texas nuclear power plant is located near Matagorda Bay.

" The massive nuclear power plant on the Texas Gulf Coast, the South Texas Project, could shut down as Hurricane Harvey approaches with wind speeds topping 100 mph."

http://www.statesman.com/news/local/nuk ... ruDeVG76J/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Tex ... ng_Station

.

[Exalt]

Why Harvey wasn't upgraded with the 113kt find, I don't really understand.

[tatertawt24]

The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
Southwestern Calhoun County in south Texas...
Aransas County in south central Texas...
East central Nueces County in south central Texas...
Eastern San Patricio County in south central Texas...
Central Refugio County in south central Texas...

* Until 700 PM CDT

* At 454 PM CDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
extreme winds, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Harvey,
were moving onshore 17 miles east of Key Allegro, or 18 miles east
of Rockport, moving northwest at 25 mph. This is an extremely
dangerous and life-threatening situation!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread destructive winds of 115 to 145 mph will spread across
Calhoun County, Aransas County, Nueces County, San Patricio
County, Refugio County, producing swaths of tornado-like damage.

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

[Langinbang187]

Why Harvey wasn't upgraded with the 113kt find, I don't really understand.

Next pass through the NE quad will be telling if they made the right call or not.

[abajan]

Harvey should be ashore soon, thankfully. I'm afraid that if the hurricane had slowed down it could have been a mid grade cat-4. Still a small possibility Harvey get upgraded. All of you in Texas please be safe......MGC

I think it's more than a small possibility. It's just 5 mph short of Cat 4 and its central pressure has been constantly dropping.

[hriverajr]

Last 20 or so on radar it seems to have almost stalled

Don't think so. Still seeing a slow general northwest motion with a slight westward wobble over the past 30 mins.

Yea it still is moving...although a bit slower.

[fwbbreeze]

[wkwally]

Thanks Hammy so there fore if Harvey goes past 130mph we could have a record hurricane here in Texas.

[Exalt]

Why Harvey wasn't upgraded with the 113kt find, I don't really understand.

Next pass through the NE quad will be telling if they made the right call or not.

All of these waiting to jump the gun till the last second shenanigans just cause for a jumbling of information within the public and confusion.

[tropicwatch]

Anyone got a good live video feed?

Aransas Pass, it has been up and down but great picture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOSDPhXrXgs

[jdjaguar]

Need pressure in the low 930s for a moderate Cat.4

Not in the Atlantic basin.

Harvey is currently characterized with CAT4 pressure, Top-end CAT3 winds

[tolakram]

AF about to do another pass, probably the last.

[Exalt]

Thanks Hammy so there fore if Harvey goes past 130mph we could have a record hurricane here in Texas.

130kt =/= 130mph

[Cunxi Huang]

LOCATION...27.6N 96.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.85 INCHES

110 kt, still top c3

[Callista]

Why Harvey wasn't upgraded with the 113kt find, I don't really understand.

They don't like to cry wolf--they only upgrade when they're sure it's a solid category 4 (or whatever category). If they upgrade as soon as they get some readings that might indicate it's that fast, then when they get a really strong cat 4 people won't internalize that the wind is that bad. Remember there's always uncertainty in measurement. Besides, a 3 is plenty bad.

Cm'on, Harvey, get a move on. We don't want you over the ocean gathering strength any more. There's some nice juicy land over there.... go on, you're strong enough already.

[Hammy]

Why Harvey wasn't upgraded with the 113kt find, I don't really understand.

They don't like to cry wolf--they only upgrade when they're sure it's a solid category 4 (or whatever category). If they upgrade as soon as they get some readings that might indicate it's that fast, then when they get a really strong cat 4 people won't internalize that the wind is that bad. Remember there's always uncertainty in measurement. Besides, a 3 is plenty bad.

Probably waiting for a NE quad pass--they're doing hourly updates now so they can easily up the next update if it's a 4.

Edit: latest data doesn't seem to justify a 4.

[Exalt]

Why Harvey wasn't upgraded with the 113kt find, I don't really understand.

They don't like to cry wolf--they only upgrade when they're sure it's a solid category 4 (or whatever category). If they upgrade as soon as they get some readings that might indicate it's that fast, then when they get a really strong cat 4 people won't internalize that the wind is that bad. Remember there's always uncertainty in measurement. Besides, a 3 is plenty bad.

Probably waiting for a NE quad pass--they're doing hourly updates now so they can easily up the next update if it's a 4.

Not if it makes landfall at 7 like it looks like it might do at this pace

[Cunxi Huang]

215900 2748N 09630W 6964 02856 9683 +130 //// 118109 111 090 005 01
215930 2747N 09632W 6974 02803 9638 +126 //// 117115 118 095 005 01
220000 2745N 09633W 6964 02771 //// +127 //// 117110 117 098 004 01
220030 2744N 09634W 6961 02729 //// +136 //// 117105 112 098 004 01

nope, NE quadrant doesn't support a cat 4 intensity.

[weatherwindow]

Does anyone know the strongest landfall hurricane in Texas by any chance as far as what category?

Appears to be a Hurricane in 1886 in the central Texas coast, around 130kt at landfall.

That was the storm that destroyed Indianola on Matagorda Bay