ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Eye very visible on E. Carib radar now



see http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?295 -- Extra Long radar loop

[Extratropical94]

Anguilla webcam. Some pretty large swells already pushing water all the way up the beach.

https://www.earthcam.com/world/anguilla/meadsbay/?cam=barnesbay

This webcam link has been repeatedly posted in the discussion thread.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

When's the next recon?

[Raebie]

I have been trying to do some math based on the current satellite imagery. Is this storm approaching 800 miles in diameter or am I incorrect?

I heard 416 miles across an hour ago

Across yes, but in diameter.

Um, isn't that the same thing?

[utweather]

It is already too late. Those options disappeared yesterday. Life on small islands is far more tenuous. Far fewer options.

Not for Miami. Good luck in Puerto Rico, I think its forecast to miss you to the north.

Are you for real? A cat five. Closest point center is 65 miles away and it is 400 miles across. Wanna come sit in the yard in a lawn chair and let me know if that feels like a "miss to the north"? There will not be a leaf left in PR OR Vieques.

I wish you luck in Puerto Rico but my posts are about Miami.

[Extratropical94]

Has the next recon take off yet or perhaps there is a delay? I thought NOAA plane should be departing by now according to schedule.

Give them a few more minutes. HDOBs shoud start pouring in 5-10 mins after departure.

[mrbagyo]

thick violent core

[chris_fit]

[mg]http://imageshack.com/a/img923/6855/ryoMEK.gif[/img]
thick violent core

My thoughts exactly. Its amazin that radar can penetrate that wall of water moving at 180+mph

[CrazyC83]

But Hugo, Isabel, Gloria, Igor all had lower pressures and lower wind speeds. How is the Central Atlantic different from the Caribbean or the GOM?

It's in a higher pressure enviornment so I've heard.

What other storms have had unusually high pressures in this area?

Dean was 929 with 145-150 kt winds. Hugo might have been stronger since the winds were likely not fully measured by a plane in distress.

[AutoPenalti]

Maybe off topic and unrelated but my parents wanted to sit down as a family to discuss our options. Very rarely do we ever have sit-downs as a family but considering the circumstances... and we are debating on whether to evacuate or stay put, right now as it stands, we are favoring to stay put.

I live near Downtown Margate, about 1km east from the turnpike. It's a ranch style with foundation from 1989 and remodeled in 2010.

[KBBOCA]

Latest radar frames from Guadeloupe:



http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles



http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[painkillerr]

It is already too late. Those options disappeared yesterday. Life on small islands is far more tenuous. Far fewer options.

Not for Miami. Good luck in Puerto Rico, I think its forecast to miss you to the north.

Are you for real? A cat five. Closest point center is 65 miles away and it is 400 miles across. Wanna come sit in the yard in a lawn chair and let me know if that feels like a "miss to the north"? There will not be a leaf left in PR OR Vieques.

Well said!

[CryHavoc]

Maybe off topic and unrelated but my parents wanted to sit down as a family to discuss our options. Very rarely do we ever have sit-downs as a family but considering the circumstances... and we are debating on whether to evacuate or stay put, right now as it stands, we are favoring to stay put.

I live near Downtown Margate, about 1km east from the turnpike. It's a ranch style with foundation from 1989 and remodeled in 2010.

You're in the potential impact cone of one of the strongest hurricanes in history. I can't fathom why you'd want to stay if you could get out now. If you take a hit from the eyewall all bets are off.

[utweather]

Maybe off topic and unrelated but my parents wanted to sit down as a family to discuss our options. Very rarely do we ever have sit-downs as a family but considering the circumstances... and we are debating on whether to evacuate or stay put, right now as it stands, we are favoring to stay put.

I live near Downtown Margate, about 1km east from the turnpike. It's a ranch style with foundation from 1989 and remodeled in 2010.

Looking at google maps you look so close to the shore. I see no reward in staying. Better safe than sorry. Watch and hope from a safe distance.

[Exalt]

Maybe off topic and unrelated but my parents wanted to sit down as a family to discuss our options. Very rarely do we ever have sit-downs as a family but considering the circumstances... and we are debating on whether to evacuate or stay put, right now as it stands, we are favoring to stay put.

I live near Downtown Margate, about 1km east from the turnpike. It's a ranch style with foundation from 1989 and remodeled in 2010.

I would evacuate now or tomorrow. Cat 4/Cat 5 winds are nothing to "stay put" for, this thing has hurricane force winds extending further than the width of South FL.

[dukeblue219]

Maybe off topic and unrelated but my parents wanted to sit down as a family to discuss our options. Very rarely do we ever have sit-downs as a family but considering the circumstances... and we are debating on whether to evacuate or stay put, right now as it stands, we are favoring to stay put.

I live near Downtown Margate, about 1km east from the turnpike. It's a ranch style with foundation from 1989 and remodeled in 2010.

What were the arguments for staying put that won out?

[msbee]

St Maarten Met Office statement
http://www.meteosxm.com/hurricane-irma-2/

Today is the 22nd anniversary of Hurricane Luis devastating St Maarten, and we are fearful Irma will be even more catastrophic.
There is a curfew staring at 6 PM and some shelters are open AS OF 4 pm, manned by Dutch Marines.. The French side is evacuating people now from low lying coastal areas because of impending storm surge.
We fear the worst

[Kingarabian]

Anyone have video from recon when they found those 160kts winds?

[utweather]

Are you for real? A cat five. Closest point center is 65 miles away and it is 400 miles across. Wanna come sit in the yard in a lawn chair and let me know if that feels like a "miss to the north"? There will not be a leaf left in PR OR Vieques.

I wish you luck in Puerto Rico but my posts are about Miami.

Yeah I noticed. And they include bad math. Smh.

I have no numbers just the latest gfs ensembles that really are starting to point a target(direct hit) at Miami. Lives can be saved now.

[gatorcane]

wow look how perfectly symmetric the eye is. Doesn't even wobble at all:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12