ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Agua
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4281 Postby Agua » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:22 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Maybe off topic and unrelated but my parents wanted to sit down as a family to discuss our options. Very rarely do we ever have sit-downs as a family but considering the circumstances... and we are debating on whether to evacuate or stay put, right now as it stands, we are favoring to stay put.

I live near Downtown Margate, about 1km east from the turnpike. It's a ranch style with foundation from 1989 and remodeled in 2010.


Looking forward to weeks without power / AC?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4282 Postby Bhuggs » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:23 pm

It's been 12 years since people have been reminded of what a major landfall can cause wind damage wise. That's 12 years of new homeowners and 12 years of complacency. I was in rockport today and Port Aransas yesterday. I saw more houses than I can count that completely failed and would have severely injured if not killed the people inside. Irma is forecasted to be stronger than Harvey. If you are ordered to evacuate, get the hell out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4283 Postby KBBOCA » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:23 pm

A few updates from Storm Carib posters:

Anguilla
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/anguilla.shtml

My God: These wind forecasts for Anguilla tomorrow - left is sustained, right is gusts!!!

Image



St. Maarten / St. Martin:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml

People n St Maarten are busy making the final preparations for the approach of Hurricane Irma. To say we are scared is putting it mildly.
This is terrifying us. Today is the 22nd anniversary of Hurricane Luis which devastated the island and Irma is much stronger. We fear the worst but hope for the best
Stay safe everyone.


Date: Tue, 05 Sep 2017 13:14:59 -0400
Just came up from Lay Bay, which is the rocky beach where Flamingo and La Vista resorts are located, and the breaking waves there are already huge by normal standards. And Irma is not even close to us yet. This beach is located on the middle of the south side of the island. Not sure how the north coast is faring at the moment. Winds here for most of the morning have been only a light to moderate breeze, with occasional periods of gusts estimated at 15-20kts, and which seem to be happening more frequently as the day progresses.

I also saw a lot of people putting final touches to preparations, boarding up, taking down signs and canvases, even strapping down the roofs of smaller huts and shops at the beach. It seems this time the majority of persons are taking the situation very seriously, as it should be, even the Caribbean die-hard optimists that usually go by "it will pass and nothing will happen" motto. Lets hope we will still have an island left by the end of this situation.



St Thomas:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stthomas.shtml

curfew in place all day Wed & Thurs. 31 foot seas expected

By Jane Higgins
Date: Tue, 5 Sep 2017 15:38:29 -0400

Curfew in place from 6am Wednesday til,6pm Thursday
http://stthomassource.com/content/2017/ ... astrophic/

- Marine Forecast | Weather Underground

By Jane Higgins
Date: Tue, 5 Sep 2017 15:28:55 -0400

The copters and planes are tucked in with boats in the hangar.
>
> Tomorrow....up to 31 ft seas !!
> https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/AM/725.html

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4284 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:wow look how perfectly symmetric the eye is. Doesn't even wobble at all:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


My geography sucks. Are those first 2 islands Anguilla and Guadalupe?
Last edited by Raebie on Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4285 Postby FLeastcoast » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:25 pm

BlowHard wrote:
utweather wrote:
Exalt wrote:They need to HURRY with these mandatory evac orders in Miami Dade. My Aunt is persistent on staying because they haven't issued one yet. The potential for catastrophic damage is too high, they need to get people OUT.


Yeah, if I lived there I would seriously consider getting a one-way ticket out asap.


It is already too late. Those options disappeared yesterday. Life on small islands is far more tenuous. Far fewer options.

are you saying that it is too late to evacuate from the islands or from miami?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4286 Postby Meteorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:26 pm

utweather wrote:
BlowHard wrote:
utweather wrote:
I wish you luck in Puerto Rico but my posts are about Miami.


Yeah I noticed. And they include bad math. Smh.


I have no numbers just the latest gfs ensembles that really are starting to point a target(direct hit) at Miami. Lives can be saved now.


PR will most likely avoid the eyewall and may avoid sustained hurricane force winds as well based on the small extent of HF winds in the southern half of the storm. Storm surge looks to be around 5 feet with about a foot of rainfall forecast ( see http://www.weather.gov/sju/). There will certainly be some impacts but as the current track holds I don't think this will be that bad of a scenario in PR (compared to what it could have been if the storm drifted further south). Now I would recommend being prepared given the hurricane warning and the fact a wobble 20-30 miles southward would bring a whole different set of impacts.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4287 Postby Arsynic » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:27 pm

Sanibel wrote:Euro just put a bulls-eye on Sanibel of a 933 hurricane...


Headed to Costco and Home Depot...

Be prepared to stand in line with the the great unwashed. The main reason why I signed up here is so I can get the jump on the (m)asses.

Here in Charleston, the Costco gas line was out on the street and we're not expected to see anything until next week. Are these people expecting to park their cars for a week?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4288 Postby KBBOCA » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:28 pm

Raebie wrote:
gatorcane wrote:wow look how perfectly symmetric the eye is. Doesn't even wobble at all:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


My geography sucks. Are those first 2 islands Anguilla and Guadalupe?


Guadeloupe is the butterfly shaped island.
Above it are Antigua & Barbuda.
A bit further northwest, St. Barth, St. Maarten/St. Martin, Anguilla

These are the islands most in the bullseye.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4289 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:29 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Maybe off topic and unrelated but my parents wanted to sit down as a family to discuss our options. Very rarely do we ever have sit-downs as a family but considering the circumstances... and we are debating on whether to evacuate or stay put, right now as it stands, we are favoring to stay put.

I live near Downtown Margate, about 1km east from the turnpike. It's a ranch style with foundation from 1989 and remodeled in 2010.


What were the arguments for staying put that won out?

We have nowhere to evacuate to, my brother lives in Sarasota. However, it's not official, so we are going to have more of these as the situation becomes clear
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4290 Postby utweather » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:31 pm

FLeastcoast wrote:
BlowHard wrote:
utweather wrote:
Yeah, if I lived there I would seriously consider getting a one-way ticket out asap.


It is already too late. Those options disappeared yesterday. Life on small islands is far more tenuous. Far fewer options.

are you saying that it is too late to evacuate from the islands or from miami?


BlowHard says it is too late to evacuate from the islands.

I'm saying there is still time in Miami. And I would do it asap if I lived there.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4291 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:33 pm

Absolutely incredible!
Off-the-scale rain rate over nearly the entire eyewall.
This will continue to heat the core.
Hate to say but further intensification is likely.
I have never seen this before!
This is something you don't want to see on approach to landfall.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4292 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:35 pm

I was afraid to look at this.
Northern eyewall intensity maxed out on microwave.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4293 Postby stormreader » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:36 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4294 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:37 pm

ok, nhc on the hot seat again and i dont think our friend sanibel is going to like what is going to be posted by nhc shortly...btw, we wont like it in se florida either being on the east side of this bad ass irma...this is a meaner hurricane than andrew due to its size and its ability to maintain intensity for all these days, talk about wreaking havoc

if you dont have supplies, cvs and walgreens are typically quiet early in the morning like real early, cant be laying around in the rack past 7 folks, get up and get gas at 6 and then hit whatever is open, i had no issues getting 50 gallons this morning at 630 except they had a 100 limit and i had to stop and insert my debit card again :roll:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4295 Postby Pughetime12 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:38 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Fishing wrote:
Pughetime12 wrote:
I hear ya! I'm in Mt. Pleasant and we were extremely fortunate to have minor damage from Matthew. A storm like Irma would destroy my home and I don't know what we'd do.

We are in Mount Pleasant too. Up in the Park West area. We stayed for Hugo and were in Harborgate then.
You take it a day at a time and cherish your family. Life rebuilds but it definitely is a life altering experience. I've already got our plan in mind and have cautiously booked a couple rooms out of town that I can cancel. We are praying for the out to sea forecast but it sure seems like that window is closing. We should know a lot more by Tuesday after all the recon data come in.


The only thing I'm not sure about is whether I would need to board up windows if it looks like a landfall here


I'm in Park West as well. I'm debating the same thing. I have a trampoline and a playground in the back yard and took the trampoline net down with Matthew as well as the swings to the playset. I tied the trampoline bottom rails to a huge tree we have in the backyard that I just can't envision it being taken out. I'm not sure if I can do all that with this one and I fear that playset might go airborne or our wood fence might have pieces that do as well. I've never boarded a window in my life either.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4296 Postby gfsperpendicular » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:38 pm

This hurricane makes me want to scream. Really, unbelievable.
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I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4297 Postby Exalt » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:40 pm

I'd probably put money down on this intensifying to 200mph.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4298 Postby bob rulz » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:40 pm

This seems to still be intensifying. Incredible, and terrifying.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4299 Postby bonjourno » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:41 pm

I know in years past there was a website that showed 1-minute imagery from an experimental GOES satellite. Is that active this year?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4300 Postby KBBOCA » Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:42 pm

I thought I might take a minute to suggest folks browsing this forum click on the paypal button to donate.
https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?c ... aNonHosted

Also Storm Carib could probably use a donation too.
http://stormcarib.com/donate.htm

I donated to both today. Both Storm2K & Storm Carib provide Incredible resources & info at a time like this.
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