ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Wish we had recon right about now.

[Exalt]

I know in years past there was a website that showed 1-minute imagery from an experimental GOES satellite. Is that active this year?

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... o1-13-48-1

Here you go!

[SouthDadeFish]

That 19Z SSMIS pass has about as strong of an eyewall as it gets. I really hope the Leewards don't have to go through that...

[Exalt]

This has one of the most symmetrical eyes I think I've ever seen on a hurricane besides Haiyan

[galaxy401]

Any update going on with recon yet?

[NFLnut]

I'm in Park West as well. I'm debating the same thing. I have a trampoline and a playground in the back yard and took the trampoline net down with Matthew as well as the swings to the playset. I tied the trampoline bottom rails to a huge tree we have in the backyard that I just can't envision it being taken out. I'm not sure if I can do all that with this one and I fear that playset might go airborne or our wood fence might have pieces that do as well. I've never boarded a window in my life either.

I boarded up after Charley left a 12 foot hole in my roof and Frances and her potential 14 hrs of 115 mph winds followed a couple of weeks later (followed by Jeanne which was similar length and wind speeds) and we had no flying debris. It was more hurricane fear and fatigue that year that got me to do it. I live 70 miles inland and my opinion is damned if you do, damned if you don't. If I lived on the coast, it would be a no-brainer just in case. I figure I'm more likely to have a tree land on my roof as a 2x4 through a window. But again .. if I were closer to the coast, it would be different and I would have permanent panels stored in the garage for future use.

[Exalt]

According to satellites there's a LOT of lightning in the eyewall.. This has to be the worst sign.

[Extratropical94]

Anyone have video from recon when they found those 160kts winds?

I've only seen one video so far. This is from Sunday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60je_4pRD4

Any update going on with recon yet?

NOAA2 (Kermit) has departed from Barbados, but as of now there are no HDOBs. One RECCO observation came in a few minutes ago, indicating they departed at around 20:35Z.

Observation Time: 20:37Z on Tuesday
Coordinates: 13.1N 59.6W
Location: 1 statute miles (1 km) to the S (185°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Pressure Altitude: 1,020 meters (3,346 feet)

[txwatcher91]

Recon should be there around 7pm right? It could be a really bumpy ride and they may find 190+ winds if satellite is any indication...

[znel52]

I think they make it 165kts at 5 even with no recent recon. It looks even better than it did an hour to two ago.

[northjaxpro]

Absolutely incredible!
Off-the-scale rain rate over nearly the entire eyewall.
This will continue to heat the core.
Hate to say but further intensification is likely.
I have never seen this before!
This is something you don't want to see on approach to landfall.

This is extremely rare to see such an intense tropical cyclone in the North Atlantic basin for sure! What an incredible storm!! Irma may be well on its way of becoming one of, if not the strongest tropical cyclone on record ever when it is all said and done.It has that potential with plenty of time to achieve this and ideal conditions for development, if Irma avoids land interaction or keeps that at a minimum. I do not want this to happen. It is frightening how powerful Irma is for sure!

[dukeblue219]

I think they make it 165kts at 5 even with no recent recon. It looks even better than it did an hour to two ago.

The 2100Z advisory is out, 160kt at 926mb. Makes sense that they'd hold steady until the recon arrives.

[Sanibel]

Ft Myers Cypress Lakes Drive Costco out of water...Out of D Batteries...Crowd not bad...Gas 10 minute wait...

[znel52]

I think they make it 165kts at 5 even with no recent recon. It looks even better than it did an hour to two ago.

The 2100Z advisory is out, 160kt at 926mb. Makes sense that they'd hold steady until the recon arrives.

10-4. Wish recon was in there right now it's appearance continues to improve. They could be missing historic data. When is the next mission?

[ronyan]

Regarding the intensity from the NHC:
5pm disco

Irma continues to exhibit a remarkably impressive satellite
presentation. The intensity was increased to 160 kt on the 1800
UTC intermediate public advisory based on a couple of SFMR winds of
160 kt measured in the northeastern eyewall by the Air Force
aircraft just prior to that time. The minimum pressure measured
by a dropsonde in the eye was 926 mb. Irma becomes only the fifth
Atlantic basin hurricane with a peak wind speed of 160 kt or
higher. The others are Allen (1980), the Labor Day Hurricane
of 1935, Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).

The eye of Irma is within range of the Meteo France radar in the
northeastern Caribbean, and recent images show the development of
an outer eyewall, likely the beginning stages of an eyewall
replacement. These changes in inner-core structure will likely
result in fluctuations in intensity during the next couple of days.
Otherwise, increasing upper-ocean heat content and a very favorable
upper-level pattern are expected to allow Irma to remain a category
4 or 5 hurricane during the next several days. Once again, the NHC
forecast shows limited interaction of the hurricane with the islands
of the Greater Antilles.

[dukeblue219]

I think they make it 165kts at 5 even with no recent recon. It looks even better than it did an hour to two ago.

The 2100Z advisory is out, 160kt at 926mb. Makes sense that they'd hold steady until the recon arrives.

10-4. Wish recon was in there right now it's appearance continues to improve. They could be missing historic data. When is the next mission?

NOAA2 just took off. Should be in the center in an hour or so. An Air Force mission is taking off soon too I believe.

[Exalt]

I think they make it 165kts at 5 even with no recent recon. It looks even better than it did an hour to two ago.

The 2100Z advisory is out, 160kt at 926mb. Makes sense that they'd hold steady until the recon arrives.

At this point, however, this might be one of the last recon flights I would hope. This looks higher than 165kts to me and flying even in winds that speed can send a plane into distress.

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow Nhc saying outter eyeball developing. Gonna get even bigger. Unreal

[northjaxpro]

I tell you what, when Recon gets back in there to sample Irma, I am really going to be glued to the data to see how much stronger she will get.

[dukeblue219]

I think they make it 165kts at 5 even with no recent recon. It looks even better than it did an hour to two ago.

The 2100Z advisory is out, 160kt at 926mb. Makes sense that they'd hold steady until the recon arrives.

At this point, however, this might be one of the last recon flights I would hope. This looks higher than 165kts to me and flying even in winds that speed can send a plane into distress.

For now they're planning 3-hourly fixed starting tomorrow, PLUS there's a mission into the Bay of Campeche to check on 95L. Lots of flying coming up for these brave folks.